Real-World Skill Levels: ELO - Page 2

Anthony · 10-25-2022, 11:30 AM

A general problem with computing real-world skill levels is that skill is usually not numerically ranked in the way RPGs do it. However, there is an exception: the ELO system.

ELO has a very simple method: your performance in any given match is assumed to correspond to your true skill level plus a random value, which is a normal distribution with a standard deviation of 200.

In GURPS, your performance is assumed to be your true skill level plus a random value, which is roughly a normal distribution with a standard deviation of slightly under 3. If we assume a chess game is a single quick contest, 1 point of GURPS skill is 67 ELO; we'll round to 70 for convenience.

The floor for skill in USCF is 100; if we set that to a GURPS skill of 4, our formula is ELO/70 + 3. This means the current top human player (Magnus Carlson, ELO has hovered in the mid 2800s for the past ten years) has a skill level of 43, and Stockfish 13 has a skill level of 53.

Not sure any of that is actually useful to games, but it seemed interesting.

10-25-2022, 11:30 AM	#1
Anthony Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: Berkeley, CA	Real-World Skill Levels: ELO A general problem with computing real-world skill levels is that skill is usually not numerically ranked in the way RPGs do it. However, there is an exception: the ELO system. ELO has a very simple method: your performance in any given match is assumed to correspond to your true skill level plus a random value, which is a normal distribution with a standard deviation of 200. In GURPS, your performance is assumed to be your true skill level plus a random value, which is roughly a normal distribution with a standard deviation of slightly under 3. If we assume a chess game is a single quick contest, 1 point of GURPS skill is 67 ELO; we'll round to 70 for convenience. The floor for skill in USCF is 100; if we set that to a GURPS skill of 4, our formula is ELO/70 + 3. This means the current top human player (Magnus Carlson, ELO has hovered in the mid 2800s for the past ten years) has a skill level of 43, and Stockfish 13 has a skill level of 53. Not sure any of that is actually useful to games, but it seemed interesting. __________________ My GURPS site and Blog.