[Alt History] Alternative conclusion to the Pacific conflict in WW 2

[Carl Rodgers]

Instead of employing atomic weapons, the US proceeds with a ground based invasion of the Japanese islands in World War 2. What do you think would have happened and what changes would occur in the modern world?

[Mack_JB]

Hundreds of thousands more Japanese civilians die, the military is 100% dead, and Japan ceases to exist as a modern nation state after the US conquers and occupies it. Since we're doing Alt History, then sometime in the late 60's it becomes the newest of the United States.

[johndallman]

If the Japanese resist as they intended ... then yes, what he said.

[adm]

There would also be significant US causalities, the US post war advantage of comparatively few combat loses would be gone. Hokkaido, and ~half of Honshu would Russian. There would be no South Korea.

Possible upside, after fighting closely enough together to actually fight side by side against Japan, post war relations between the USA and USSR may be more diplomatic than military.

[David Johnston2]

Originally Posted by adm

There would also be significant US causalities, the US post war advantage of comparatively few combat loses would be gone. Hokkaido, and ~half of Honshu would Russian. There would be no South Korea.

Possible upside, after fighting closely enough together to actually fight side by side against Japan, post war relations between the USA and USSR may be more diplomatic than military.

While it seems likely that there would be no South Korea, Russia did not have the shipping capacity to launch an amphibious invasion. Also I don't think there would be all that many U.S. casualties because it is really unlikely that that Japan would fight for long after after they were convinced that they couldn't break the American beach head. I think that would be sufficient to convince them there was no hope.

[adm]

Originally Posted by David Johnston2

While it seems likely that there would be no South Korea, Russia did not have the shipping capacity to launch an amphibious invasion. Also I don't think there would be all that many U.S. casualties because it is really unlikely that that Japan would fight for long after after they were convinced that they couldn't break the American beach head. I think that would be sufficient to convince them there was no hope.

Work had been done to support the Russian invasion of Hokkaido, primarily with air and naval support (Not much landing support though, the Russians would have needed to build landing craft.). IF Japan insisted on fighting to the last man, the Russians would have gotten more support.

[Johnny1A.2]

Originally Posted by adm

Possible upside, after fighting closely enough together to actually fight side by side against Japan, post war relations between the USA and USSR may be more diplomatic than military.

More likely the reverse.

Nukes or no nukes, Stalin was still Stalin, and the Soviet Communist Party was still the Soviet Communist Party. Even in the real world, Stalin was already looking beyond the war in significant ways before the other allied leaders were, and ruthlessly so.

The Cold War was not a result of miscommunication or any sort of misunderstanding.

To get an idea of what kind of entity the USSR under Stalin was, consider that in Poland as the Germans were being driven back there was an uprising in Warsaw. Stalin saw a Polish Resistance success there as being counter to his post-war plans, so he held back Russian forces and refused to agree to assistance from the other allies for them, deliberately allowing the Germans to massacre the Polish resistance forces before moving in with the Red Army to occupy Poland (and hold it for the next half century).

It's hard to say if Russia would actually have invaded the Home Islands in this scenario or not, but whatever they did would have been done with an eye to the coming conflict with America, which Stalin was certainly preparing for well before most of the Allies. If they invaded Japan, one possibility would be a divided island, sort of liked divided Germany.

I tend to suspect they would not have invaded, except possibly in name only. Maybe some token forces, while Russian troops moved in to secure Japanese held territories in China or elsewhere. From Stalin's POV, America tied down in Japan and Japan smashed flat is all to the good.

(Recall that Japan and Russia have a history of bad relations.)

Stalin might also have looked to a long-term occupied Japan as a good place to indulge in a little secret assistance to a Japanese resistance to keep America busy there in the future. Feed the resistance in Japan, post occupation, just enough assistance to let them keep provoking America, and you force America to spend blood and treasure and leave other areas open.

[robkelk]

Originally Posted by Mack_JB

... Since we're doing Alt History, then sometime in the late 60's it becomes the newest of the United States.

Before Puerto Rico, or at the same time (which would make Japan the 52nd state)?

[whswhs]

The admission of a single state that had that many electoral votes would be deeply contested. And it seems likely that after brutal defeat in a conventional war, Japan would still be bitterly opposed to the USA, possibly to the point of terrorism or guerrilla war. I'd bet on Robinson Jeffers's "We must put freedom away and stiffen into bitter empire."

[Mack_JB]

Heck, go for broke. We make Japan, the Philippines, and all of our Pacific Territories like Guam and Samoa into States, rather than giving any of them independence or autonomy.