Zhodani without Psi

[thrash]

Originally Posted by David Johnston2

It would surprise me though if there was no hereditary component to psionic aptitude, so that would be kind of like getting rich by winning the lottery.

Perfect example, though: how many people still play the lottery hoping to get rich, when typically 50% of all receipts are skimmed off the top to fund state budgets? A few, well-publicized cases of talented prole children elevated to the intendency are really all it takes.

[Flyndaran]

Originally Posted by thrash

Perfect example, though: how many people still play the lottery hoping to get rich, when typically 50% of all receipts are skimmed off the top to fund state budgets? A few, well-publicized cases of talented prole children elevated to the intendency are really all it takes.

Lotteries, or a tax on those incapable of doing math as many of us call it. That mentality works best for the poorly educated and desperate.

[DocGrognard]

Originally Posted by David Johnston2

It would surprise me though if there was no hereditary component to psionic aptitude, so that would be kind of like getting rich by winning the lottery.

FWIW, according to Mega Traveller, and possibly the Zho module for classic, there is explicitly no hereditary component that has ever been identified. *
While bizarre, I decided two things about this: one, Psi itself is one of the impossible things about our universe regardless of whether it seems "Hardish SF", so its cause might well be based in some non-IRL phenomenon

2.Even better, consider how long Zho society has known, benefited and trained Psionics as a society. if it did have an identified hereditary component, no matter how complex, given even a part of the thousands of years of Zho history, one could easily have all Zho to be bred for psionics, even using tech 2 genomics..... or at least much larger percentages if there are social constraints


I did some whatiffing at MGP forums about how this would work for Zho Society; I'll post it here if there is interest.

[DocGrognard]

Originally Posted by Pomphis

"your" being the important word. My individual actions or time of death cannot be predicted, only how a large body of humans will act on average or average life expectancy.

Which is true for statistics and actuary; however (FWIW) psychohistory is neither (and also fiction, I hasten to point out). It is explicitly a method of manipulating society via prediction of the behavior of huge masses of individuals.

The manipulation of the individual occurs entirely as a result of the constraints and conditions of the altered society. The individuals behavior is free only to vary within the freedom allowed by the intervention on the society, and is entirely irrelevant. It's ultimately dehumanizing and deceptive, and somewhere (I think) between Space Nazi's and the sincere Zhodanis.

I'll also point out that lets not fuss about its nature in an SF troped RPG - my position is that psycho history is equally as impossible as Psi; so if we can use one, we should be able to use the other, if we want.

[Flyndaran]

Why is predicting and willfully manipulating human behavior statistically impossible? It's really what society is all about just done intentionally rather than haphazardly.
We all manipulate each other on a daily basis, whether we like to acknowledge it or not.

[DocGrognard]

Originally Posted by Flyndaran

Why is predicting and willfully manipulating human behavior statistically impossible? It's really what society is all about just done intentionally rather than haphazardly.
We all manipulate each other on a daily basis, whether we like to acknowledge it or not.

Not quite what I said, but a fair question: my position is that Psychohistory as defined by SF is impossible, not that stats or successful manipulation is impossible. Psychohistory goes beyond probability statements such as "if insulted, most people become angry, and thus often become irrational, say on an online forum " and presents a unified math based science of behavior that says "if A then absolutely 100% B".

As to the impossible part, a more detailed and more complicated explanation is available offline for those who wish it, but here would be TL; so the TL:DR version is this: as a professional in both Stats and Psychology, I just don't think that that level of reductionism is possible with our universe's makeup and limits on knowlege/information.

[Hans Rancke-Madsen]

Originally Posted by Flyndaran

Lotteries, or a tax on those incapable of doing math as many of us call it. That mentality works best for the poorly educated and desperate.

It depends on what the buyer believes he is buying. Lotteries are poor investments, but may be cheap purchases of exitement.


Hans

[Flyndaran]

Yeah, just about 100% anything predictive to do with complex life forms is rubbish. But the first couple of sentences on psychohistory from Wikipedia write that it's able to make general predictions about groups of people.
While incredibly complex and requiring enormous amounts of real time data on huge populations and super computers, I don't see how it's impossible. Unlikely due to competing organizations and agendas and increased individual control via that same advanced technology, but impossible seems a bit harsh.
And I'm a very pessimistic guy with regards to ultra tech physical and social.

[Anthony]

Originally Posted by Flyndaran

Any predictative program complex enough to deal with human behavior must be far too complex for any individuals to understand and predict.

Doesn't matter whether humans can understand it -- just matters whether they have access to it. If such a program exists, someone will try to use it to achieve some goal or another, or worse, 2+ people will do so independently, and then the entire house of cards falls down.

[Anthony]

Originally Posted by DocGrognard

FWIW, according to Mega Traveller, and possibly the Zho module for classic, there is explicitly no hereditary component that has ever been identified. *
While bizarre...

It's not necessarily all that bizarre; Traveller biotech is pretty bad. It probably just means some combination of environmental (rather than genetic) causes, and the genetic influences being extremely complex.