01192023, 12:27 PM  #11  
Join Date: Jun 2013

Re: Fortune/Misfortune Trait
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Things seem to be looking toward the "correct" value being somewhere between [100] and [150]; I'm starting to think [125] may be the right price here.
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01192023, 12:32 PM  #12 
Join Date: Aug 2014
Location: Snoopy's basement

Re: Fortune/Misfortune Trait
An inherent +1.75 on every roll is at least like having +1.75 on every Attribute, so cost at least [105]. And that doesn't account for skewing crits or for nonattributebased rolls. You could mitigate skewed crits by saying you can't swap out 1s or 6s.

01192023, 01:16 PM  #13  
Join Date: Apr 2019

Re: Fortune/Misfortune Trait
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Christopher Rice has calculated that a +1 to all rolls is worth about 50 points. (See https://www.ravensnpennies.com/boil...sorceryspell/) Because Fortune doesn't apply to damage or to any rolls the GM makes on your behalf, I would call the extra Fortune die a 100 point advantage. 

01192023, 01:24 PM  #14  
Join Date: Jun 2013

Re: Fortune/Misfortune Trait
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That's an interesting idea. That would also decrease the degree of effect of the shift in mean, as a lot of those results essentially involved rerolling a 6 (or 1, for Misfortune). Anybody have an idea on if (and how) anydice could handle something like that? Or have an idea of the probabilities  years ago I manually worked out the probabilities of each result for "4d6, discard lowest," and in a form that made it easy to modify it to account for rules like "reroll 1's" (for use in That Other Game), and that's not an exercise I have any interest in repeating...
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01192023, 02:14 PM  #15 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Lawrence, KS

Re: Fortune/Misfortune Trait
Effectively, you are buying a bonus to all four stats, usable all the time. (Bonuses to secondary stats and to skills follow from bonuses to primary stats.) +1 to all four stats costs 60 points; multiplying by 1.75 gives 105 points. So I'd call that a fair price. Or 105 points for the unfavorable variant.
Bill Stoddard
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01192023, 02:16 PM  #16  
Join Date: Jun 2013

Re: Fortune/Misfortune Trait
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01202023, 07:44 AM  #17  
Join Date: Apr 2019

Re: Fortune/Misfortune Trait
Having thought about it some more:
Here's how I would handle this trait. Luck Variant Fortune, 8/level Fortune is an alternate version of Luck (Active 40%, Success Rolls only 10%). Once per hour, the PC may modify any single success roll (only when announced in advance, as per the Active limitation) by rolling 4 dice and picking the most beneficial 3 dice as the result. Treat this is a new trait for the purposes of adding enhancements and limitations. Fortune may be modified by Cosmic: Unlimited Use +1200% to be used for all success rolls: Fortune (Cosmic: Unlimited Use +1200%) [104] Quote:


01202023, 08:30 AM  #18 
Join Date: Apr 2019

Re: Fortune/Misfortune Trait
And thinking about it just a bit further....
I'm thinking it's fairest to treat Fortune as a standard superpower for 100 points, like Super Luck  or maybe more like Altered Time Rate (i.e. for 100 points, you always get to throw an extra, rather than take an extra maneuver). If you added Wishing +100% to it, you could throw your fortune die into the mix for any die roll made in your presence. You'd be the ultimate support player! That actually sounds like it'd be a lot of fun in a superpowers game. 
01202023, 09:01 AM  #19  
Join Date: Jun 2013

Re: Fortune/Misfortune Trait
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Fortune [100] You have incredibly good fortune. For any success roll, roll 4d and discard the highest. However, if you roll any 6's, at least one of them must be retained. Misfortune [100] You have incredibly poor fortune. For any success roll, roll 4d and discard the lowest. However, if you roll any 1's, at least one of them must be retained. The "at least one must be retained" verbiage makes it a bit harder to roll a critical (if you roll any 6's with Fortune, the best roll you can have is an 8; if your roll any 1's with Misfortune, the worst roll you can have is a 13) without making you a bit more likely to roll an 18 (for Fortune) or a 3 (for Misfortune), which simply retaining all 6's/1's would do  the probability of rolling an 18 on 3d6 is 1/6 cubed, or 1/216, because the only possible result that can get that is 666. The probability of rolling an 18 on 4d6, discard highest but retain all 6's is the probability of rolling 1666 or 6166 or 6616 or 6661, followed by replacing that 1 with a 2, 3, 4, or 5, and finally 6666. The permutations of one 1 and three 6's work out to a probability of 4/1296, there are 5 cases with such permutations, for 20/1296, and finally a 1/1296 chance of 6666, for a total of 21/1296  around 1 in 61.7, rather than 1/216, which is a pretty significant boost.
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01202023, 09:48 AM  #20  
Join Date: Oct 2007

Re: Fortune/Misfortune Trait
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"Roll 4d, drop highest/lowest" is quite simple. Not only to do, but also to understand why it's good/bad. If you see a 6 (or 1) you can just remove it without looking at the other 3 dice. Adding the "at least one 6/1 must be retained" conditional means that you have to look at rolls in a different way. Now you have to scan all 4 dice to see if one or more of them satisfy that condition. If you see two, you can remove one of them and be done. But if you only see one, you now have to scan the other 3 dice to see which one of them is the highest/lowest. And while the condition is not super complicated or anything, but it is still an additional thing to parse when comparing it to other Luck based (dis)advantages. It's not immedately clear how much of an impact the condition has and how it alters math in favour of/against the character. Yes, you could math it out to get a solid answer, but that is not something you should expect from anyone not already interested in statistics. In fact, I expect the average player would look at the Advantage and go something like "It costs 100 points, why does it have a built in downside?". While the Disadvantage probably looks less negative than it actually is. 

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luck, probability, trait 
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