Early and Late TL9

[Astromancer]

Originally Posted by Rupert

The other reason cleaning robots will be first used in industrial clean rooms and hospitals is that they have simple, orderly, and consistent layouts. Cleaning a home or a heavily used office is not something a robot will be good at for quite some time. Vacuuming the floor is something they will manage sooner, but the rest of the job will take longer before they're up to it. Oh, and cleaning toilets should be fairly simple, but for institutional toilets it'll be easier to make them watertight and have them hose themselves out every so often.

I can't disagree with anything you've said.

[Astromancer]

According to the newspaper El Pas, there has been some wild advances in contact lenses. Night vision, zoom in /zoom out, augmented reality, and medical diagnostic lenses are all at the prototype stage. The medical diagnostic lenses would be for diagnosing the wearer's health.

From some of the diagrams it looks to me like color changing lenses would be much simpler to make.

[weby]

Originally Posted by Fred Brackin

It's for spacers and the "pocket" it goes in is most often on a spacesuit or a survival suit. The item dates from Space 1e back in the 80s.

Originally Posted by Inky

Yeah, it seems to be basically just a "mini survival kit" of the kind you see various variations of in camping shops and novelty mail order catalogues - just with the components upgraded to TL9, like the food tablets and the "vacuum-proof" duct tape. Useful to grab as a back-up policy if you're doing your character's equipment in a hurry.

Yes, from a gaming perceptive is makes sense. But I do not see it being any very common item overall in the real world and as said some of the choices are a bit weird.

[weby]

Originally Posted by mlangsdorf

Assuming there are cheap-as-steel-rails room temperature superconductors at early TL 8+1, I could see maglev bullet trains replacing existing bullet train lines. The economics don't work for subway/commuter lines: no friction with the rail is better when you want to go very fast, but commuter lines are stopping and starting a lot and can't go very fast anyway.

Given that the current advances in superconductor temperatures are less than fast there would need to be a scientific breakthrough. We cannot predict when such will happen and even then it takes normally quite a long time from scientific breakthrough to prototype to production to large scale production.

Thus even with such breakthrough it would take many decades from the breakthrough until it is mainstream. Thus earliest late 8+1, but could be much later or never depending on if/when such happens.

Assuming vortex ring projectors are early TL 8+1, that means TL 8+1 went through a fundamental transformation in understanding fluid dynamics. The same technological underpinning that lets a 2 lb pistol deliver a cohesive sphere of smoke at 15 yards probably lets you do a lot of weird things (from a TL 8 perspective) with sound and propwash. If the crack of a supersonic airliner dissipates into generalized rumbling after traveling 25 yards, or the propwash of a tiltrotor, aircar, or utility vertol is minimal, then those vehicles would probably be more appealing.

Arguably, vortex ring projectors are superscience. But if they're not, that technology (or variants of it) should show up in a lot of places that care about airflow.

Originally Posted by Fred Brackin

Vortex ring projectors are probably small and unimpressive superscience.

"You violated the Laws of Physics for _that_?"

The revolutionary/not understood at our current level propulsion thing probably has a name like 'Tesla Bladeless Turbine" (which term might actually get you some google hits). It might take you to gernsback in the IW book too.

This. by our current understanding of fluid dynamics and all the simulations done based on those show that while design can lower effects somewhat, the magnitude depends on the speed of the medium, in this case air and it is not linear, instead increasing faster as you get closer to the speed of sound in the medium. And thus to move more air with less speed you need a larger area in your propeller.

[weby]

Overall all my replies to all the technologies will assume that there are no big scientific breakthroughs that are not in line with the somewhat predictable s-curves of the different tech fields. That is each technology subsystem will develop with an s-curve and the more complex things with their combined underlying technologies. Fundamental shifts of the basics are not a thing that can be predicted, but things like technology adoption can be fairly well predicted based on the technologies that it is built on.

That is as long as you do not fall into the trap that many people do of linear thinking. So many forecasters seem to think that if a technology has 10% market penetration now and 2 years ago it had 5%, then in 2 years it will be 15%, in 4 it will be 20%, 6 25% and so on. Whereas historical examples say that a more likely model is something like 20% in 2 years, 40% in 4 years, 80% in 6 years and then start to slow again as we reach the slowing part of the S-curve. That is provided the manufacturing can keep up.

[weby]

Next is communicators and sensors. I will do media separately.

Overall on communicators: I will mostly not comment on the sizes of communicators to get a certain range as there are so many different sizes in real life to get the same range as in real life a lot of devices are either cheap or advanced, but for gaming purposed they will have to pick one set.

And not the run times that cells give them due to the fact that in reality they would likely continue to be powered by secondary batteries of ever increasing effect during TL 8+1.

IR Communicators: TL 8 tech, so will continue and get more effective over TL 8+1. Used to be more common in early part of TL 8 but a lot less common now and I do not see any special reason why they would become more common again.

Laser Communicators: TL 8 tech, so will continue and get more effective over TL 8+1. Of limited use on earth as we have this thing called weather. So likely no huge use.

Radio Communicator: TL 6 tech, so will continue and get more effective over TL 8+1. The interesting part to see is how far in the spectrum can we go effectively over time and thus how much faster can we easily communicate with such.

The part " The data transfer rate is 0.1 GB per minute, but range drops significantly (divide by 10) when transmitting real-time audio-visual signals."
Is.. kind of outdated as today at late TL8 I can buy a <0.5 lb standalone device that can do 5 beam millimeter wave 5G signal and even fast 4g devices more than 1GB/minute at best and definitely more than the 0.1GB/min even in more congested places. And you can reach the 0.05g total weight with such.

Sonar Communicator: TL 8 tech, so will continue and get more effective over TL 8+1, but of course not very important to most civilians unless we get the big underwater habitats as seen in Transhuman space.


Encryption Systems: This grossly underestimates the development of Encryption and related computer hardware.

Basic Encryption: defined as not taking too much bandwidth or computing power. This level of communication is today at late TL8 not breakable with any current complexity computer within the duration of the universe and faster computers do not really help much in terms of real world use. It is breakable only by bugs/back doors in the programming or bad implementation that might allow such. A quantum computer might eventually change this, but not near term..

Secure Encryption:

Decryption Program: Only helps to find possible bugs/bad implementations. If no such, no bonus. Thus maybe something like roll a skill check of the programmers and the implementer, if they fail then this allows you to try, else not.

A secure encryption chip for a computer or comm: has been included in high end processors for about 15 years and now even the mid market ones used in normal computers and smartphones have them included.

Quantum Communications: is heavily experimented with but is at laboratory stage still. So will be a while until it is common. So likely mid/late TL 8+1

Translator Program: Broken: this is common and free at late TL 8
Accented: The best solutions are likely this level or soon getting to this level, so likely very late TL 8 or very early TL 8+1 for mass market.
Native: The progression would indicate that this level would also early TL 8+1, something like late 2020s, early 2030s.

Neural Input Headset: This is experimental at late TL 8, so likely mass market early TL 8+1

Neural Interface Implant: I will talk later about it in the Cybernetics section,

Planetary Network: TL 8 tech and most of the thins said there is reasonably accurate for TL 8+1

Suborbital Express Mail: not likely happening as said in the transportation part earlier.

[weby]

Media and education;

Voice Processor: exist today at late TL8, but bit clumsy still so early TL 8+1 makes sense.


Digital Data Storage Media:

All have just one value given for TL 9, but in reality they will raise during TL 8+1.

Data Bank: this is basically an external USB disk. Today the 8TB is about the 100 G$ and 16TB is G$ 200, thus the 100 TB one will likely be early TL 8+1.

Datachip : This is basically microSD. such G$ 5 card is about 64GB at late TL 8 and very soon such will be 128GB, so the 1 TB will likely be early TL 8+1

Data Dot: A said in text a covers specialist tool, not for common use, but given that you would need the datadot drive, I do not see really the use case.

Flatcam: exists, but is very rare at late TL 8, and likely will not get any more common at TL 8+1

Pocketcam: exists, but is very rare at late TL 8, and likely will not get any more common at TL 8+1

Portacam: this exists and is quite popular with successful content creators and such. Though the parabolic hearing and that high optical magnification in such seems less useful except for things like nature photography. But I think that specialist cameras will continue in TL 8+1

3D Cameras: hmm.. 3D tv and such never took off.. so depending on when and how VR takes off when such devices are needed in large numbers. The basic depth info can today already be captured by things like the ladar on Pro iPhones, but to create a 3D model you need all sides so you need to rotate the target or have an array of cameras around. so likely not in the form given in UT. Also 3D image do not take 100 times the storage, as in real life they are stored as a flat image and a bump map.

Book Reader: Kindle/Tablet devices exist at late TL 8. Storages are as said above in the chip parts. Most likely the devices at TL 8+1 will increasingly NOT have the cable connection and SD card slot and they only work wirelessly.

Data Player: basically gone away at late TL 8, and I do not see them coming to wide use again.

Entertainment Console: We will likely continue to have Consoles at least in early TL 8+1. But who knows we might see another crash is such as other devices get more powerful. So if your Apple TV or chromecast device device gets powerful enough, why would you need to get a console anymore..

Video Wall: Pasted.. hmm, sure sounds possible at some point during TL 8+1, no idea when. Painted: not TL 8+1

Multi-Media Wall: a separate speaker is way more likely than this solution.

3D Media Wall: this is questionable, given how 3D TV flopped so not likely at all.

Scent Synthesizers: hmm.. Do not know what to say about this.. the TL 8 things sold were a flop, but who knows how popular a better such would be. But my guess is... not very popular.

Sonic Projector: this kind of violates laws of physics as we know it. As Fred Brackin said about vortex projectors "You violated the Laws of Physics for _that_?"

Virtual Reality: This one is difficult to say how and when and if it will get popular. So depending on your view on if current wave will result in something usable or if it will take 1 or more waves before such. But in any case likely early TL 8+1.

VR Gloves: the cheap version seems likely early TL 8+1

Basic VR Suit: this is questionable. I think a visual camera based tracking is a more likely tech.

Full VR Suit: This is a likely development for the feedback some time after VR becomes popular

Total VR: this will be discusses more in the cybernetics section.

VR Manager/VR Environmental Database: This is obviously needed. How it will be arranged is not yet clear. But most likely it will be some big company running and you can go for ad supported model or pay for ad free...

Interactive Total VR: Dreamgames: Will be discussed more with the implant.

Augmented reality: Much of this already happens late TL 8 with phones, so the glasses version will likely come early 8+1.

Memory Augmentation: This has interesting privacy implications for people, and will likely face different regulatory environments and such. But the other things like wildlife recognition and such will likely be early TL 8+1

Video and Sensory Processing

Visual Enhancement: likely early TL 8+1

Cosmetic Filter/Video Masking: they are late TL 8

Smart Diagnostics: Yes this will happen more and more in some way as the TL 8+1 progresses.

Virtual Tutors: Will likely not come with that type of kit as described at least not early TL 8+1. More likely the solution is visual identification of parts and completed work at least for easier stuff.

Sensies, Hmm.. Seems like a lot of things about the direct neural interface so maybe I should do a separate part on it..

Mass media:
Augmented Reality: yes likely to happen early TL 8+1
Media Walls: yes for billboards...

AI Tutors: Depends on GAI development, but likely early TL 8+1

Training Robots: Depends on robot development, but likely early TL 8+1

[FrackingBiscuit]

Originally Posted by mlangsdorf

Arguably, vortex ring projectors are superscience. But if they're not, that technology (or variants of it) should show up in a lot of places that care about airflow.

Hold on. Aren't these just vortex ring guns that have been around for decades? What about them is superscience?

[weby]

Originally Posted by FrackingBiscuit

Hold on. Aren't these just vortex ring guns that have been around for decades? What about them is superscience?

Gases spread.

It is limited superscience in the same way that say a Fusion Torch drive is in Space ships. It is not like a reactionless drive is. Basically it requires efficiencies that are not possible with current scientific understanding, but not break laws of physics in basic principles. But it is possible both with vortex projectors and Fusion Torches that there is some future breakthrough in science that would then allow them without breaking things like conservation of energy like reactionless drives do or other such basic laws.

That can also be seen from the test part of the wikipedia page you linked:
"partly because of the excessive spillage onto bystanders under the flight path if used to transport chemicals or dyes, and partly because the flight noise and speed enabled it to be easily avoided at the downrange target"

[weby]

Sensors and scientific equipment

Note: All following information is based on publicly available non classified sources.

Night Vision Optics: Basically TL 7 tech, but has gotten smaller with time and will continue to be smaller. The larger ones are TL 7-8
The smaller ones from the list are:
Night Vision Glasses: likely early TL 8+1
Night Vision Contacts: likely late TL 8+1

Infrared Imaging Sensors: Also basically TL 7 tech as above, but later in TL 7 and a bit slower development. The larger ones are TL 7-8
The smaller ones from the list are:
Infrared Video Glasses : likely early TL 8+1
Infrared Contacts: likely late TL 8+1, not TL 10 as given in UT

Hyperspectral Imaging Sensors: The proper adaptation is likely early TL 8+1 and will come down in price and size during the TL. Currently at late TL 8 this level of fusion is possible and there are trials of sensor fusion smaller than the ones used by F-35, but a while until personal size. But once the curve starts going down it will go much faster than given in UT.

Hyperspectral Imaging Sensor Array: (very) Early TL 8+1
Hyperspectral Binoculars: Early/middle TL 8+1
Hyperspectral Goggles or Visor or camera: middle/late TL 8+1
Hyperspectral Video Glasses: late TL 8+1
Hyperspectral Contacts: very late TL 8+1/early TL 8+2

Passive Electromagnetic Sensor Arrays (PESA): These will likely be developed earlier than estimated in UT.

PESA Sensor Array: likely appear middle/late TL 8+1
PESA Binoculars: late TL 8+1

Chemsniffers
Dedicated Chemsniffer: this is late TL8 tech, some airports already have explosive sniffers and such, but they are big. The tiny model listed in UT is likely Middle TL 8+1, but bigger portable models will likely be available early TL 8+1

Personal Chemsniffer/Tactical Chemsniffer: These are more tricky. As current developments are limited in the number of different things they can detect. So I see two possible development paths:
Development of current would make these up-scaling of the Dedicated ones, making the schedule for the sizes ss the dedicated ones. Basically the 2lb model is 20 of the 0.2lb models with combination gadget rules sharing components and the tactical 20*10 0.2lb models that are usable at the same time.
Other path is that we get some development of some technology like spectroscopy combined with large datasets that allows us to recognize smells without the individual sensors for each.In that case the scaling of size can likely go down faster.

Electronic Support Measures (ESM)
ESM Detector/Tactical ESM Detector: These are TL 8 tech but slightly smaller due to advancements. So the examples given are early TL 8+1

Sound Detector: This is basically TL 7-8 tech but scaled to smaller size. The sizes gives are likely early TL 8+1, but since it is hard to estimate what a "+4" means in real life (see all the discussions on real life skill levels), the GM should interpret them as they see fit. As the devices will undoubtedly in real life get smaller and better during TL 8+1

Hydrophone: Same points are above on sound detectors.

Very Large Gravscanner: Such a small one is likely middle TL 8+1, the late TL 8 versions are huge.

Radscanner: these devices are likely TL 8+1, not TL 10. But the sizes and corresponding skill bonuses are.. up to the GM for the reasons given in Sound detectors.

Active sensors:
General: It is hard to say what the "Range" in GURPS 4for a sensor means as it has no real life equivalent. The GURPS 3 version that gave a bonus to defeat things like stealth/smaller object at shorter than base range and such was more realistic(though obviously not perfect).

Ladar: Basically late TL 8 tech scaled to long ranges. The problem here is as rules are written that there is no way to balance the -4 to detect targets from scanning sense, whereas in real life the sensor when scanning will swivel more giving less laser "dwell time" and power/area shortening effective range. But Ladar is said to be as imaging radar except when noted different. So on a sense roll can detect small(not specified how small) objects and fine relief but with better resolution.

Small Ladar with that type of resolution at 10 miles and 1 lb seems.. overly optimistic for atmosphere as the array you would need to just correct for typical atmospheric distortion is kind of large and unless we get some breakthroughs will not likely happen. So earliest late TL 8+1, but more likely later. A much shorter range device where the disturbance is lower, sure.

Medium Ladar: at these weights we start to get more realistic, but would still likely need a distributed array so wearing it as pack would be problematic, but a mounted device, sure. The 30 mile range seems a bit optimistic for reading faces reliably (as the +4 gives), but more realistic at late TL 8+1

Large Ladar: as a vehicle mounted system this seems more realistic of them all 100mi though atmosphere for reading faces seems a bit iffy though, but say from low orbit to ground much better if no cloud cover. This is thus likely Middle TL 8+1 for the orbit to ground version and late TL 8+1 for the through atmosphere version.

Laser Chemscanner: This is TL 8 tech.

Multi-Mode Radar: Talking separately about the search and imaging functions and ranges.

Search radar:
Small Radar: 10 mile detect 1m^2 cross section aerial target 1lb is almost late TL 8 tech, so easy at early TL 8+1

Medium Radar: 30 mile radar in 10 lb is bit later as you are talking about dissipation both ways, but as the larger sensor area helps is likely still early TL 8+1 or possibly middle TL 8+1, depending on when the signal processing S-curve where we are at the fast raise part tapers out and need to find something else.

Large Radar: same problem as small to medium radar bump, so a questimate would place this at middle to late TL 8+1

Then imaging function:
Oh my.. Millimeter waves are affected by everything in the atmosphere..
Funny things like: How many and what type of pollutants there are, humidity and so on.

and a note on "Ordinary radar detectors detect Imaging Radar at -4." seems strange.. as at frequencies that are also absorbed by the atmosphere on way back to the sensor you need to pump out a lot more energy to get an usable signal back. So more likely a +4 for radar detectors of the appropriate TL..

Small Radar: So a 1lb device being able to recognize a face 2/3 of the time at 1 mile, is definitely not early TL 8+1. So middle/late TL 8+1 or later

Medium Radar: Same problems but much bigger, the attenuation both there and back both normal signal spreading but also the atmospheric absorption so later than the small one so late TL 8+1 or later

Large Radar: Likely not TL 8+1, or very late TL 8+1

Tactical Active Electromagnetic Sensor Array (AESA): TL 8 tech, so available at early TL 8+1, with the notes from ranges above.

Sonar:
Sonar propagation is also interesting at times so there should be some note about things like temperature gradients.. and on the air sonar about winds and so on.

Sonar is old, well understood tech that will likely be increasing in effect/mass as time goes on.

All the sonars seem reasonable devices from not quite near part so more like middle TL 8+1, with the early TL 8+1 ones having shorter range but existing.

Terahertz Radar
There is research that suggest that it is indeed very good at detecting things like the mentioned weapons. But the ranges.. hmm.. seem quite optimistic.

So I would use much shorter ranges for early TL 8+1 versions and even likely somewhat shorter for later. But as the research is kind of still ongoing it is hard to fully say.

Combinations:
See the notes on the different sensors, but basically the Sensor Turret and Periscope are existing TL 8 tech updated to TL 8+1 so besides the ranges and such they will exists.

Extensible Sensor Pod: besides the ranges and other general notes above: a sensible thing that is likely coming in not too far future. So likely early TL 8+1

Scientific equipment

Portable Laboratories: Laboratories/tools of the given size exist.. the problem is again "What is what for skill purposes" so what size lab gives what bonus is totally up to how they see skill scaling in Gurps. And again, they will get more effective over TL 8+1 for given weight.

Sensor Gloves: There are likely middle TL 8+1, not TL 10, at least in limited use.

Timescanner : This is full super science tech so will come if/when GM wants to.