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Old 08-05-2018, 12:05 PM   #1
Nils_Lindeberg
 
Join Date: Jul 2018
Default One on One simulation

5th UPDATE - 18 July 2018-08

Hi people I just hacked together a melee simulation.
I know there is another one out there, some java applet. But I didn't get that one to work and had already started on mine.

I am as feature complete as I intended to be.
Most new rules are implemented with options to turn them on and off.
I will take requests for certain settings or comparisons. I will deliver the results in a spread sheet format on google docs. See links below.
My current system is not available for publication on the internet. Started to code it in a proprietary system. It was never intended for a wider audience. Just for fun and for comparisons for this KS rules revision. :-)

I can set power levels so we can see how some builds are great at 32p level and other weapon and talent combinations rule the higher ones. I have even put in a couple of easter egg dragons for comparison.

I take into account the following things:

Initiative, adjDX from damage, Charge, Forced Retreats, knockdown, active disengage for more charging with parting blows, crits, auto hit/miss, lost or broken weapons I just simulate by attacker being knock downed, talents like Warrior, veteran, weapon experts and mastery, fencing, two weapon fighting, UC and more.

Still waiting for some rule clarifications. Auto hits and such for 4, 5 and 6 dice.
ST scaling with ST.
Brawl stacking with UC.
UC 5 double strike rule. (Skipped nerve strike until I know how the double strike work. Kick is competitive enough for now.)
Old style Warrior and Veteran talents. Don't know the new ones.

I haven't taken into account missile weapons, only head on melee fights.
There are no peculiar weapons like net and trident.
I have not looked at HTH or shield rushes as a tactic.
And the movement system, side stabbing and charge rules are complex but is not done by simulations but by rules of thumb and guestimates in many steps and for different situations.

I also have options for the following:
How and when you get charges.
3-hex charge rule and Set vs Charge asymmetrical bonus.
1d6 instead of double damage for polearms.
Alternate damage statistics for polearms.
New armor rules.
Defending or not vs. Polearms charges as a general tactic or not based on DX and disengage possibilities.
Parting blows with difference in DX?
Expert weapon and shield talent.
Different builds for normal, expert and expert using Shrewd attacks.
Settings for minimum allowed adjDX. There are some strange builds that takes adjDX down to 3 and use auto hit. The matches becomes very long.
Alternate rule for minimum damage of 1 fST. Real damage in the sim because it doesn't differentiate.
Limits armor on pole arm fighters so they can do a 3-hex charge after a forced retreat.
Max limit of turns for matches.
Minimum adjusted DX. Set at 7 for viable build. There are some strange outliers like 16/8/8 With plate… Lives for autohits. Surprisingly resistant to DX penalties. :-)
Maximum adjusted DX. With few experts and masters around 15+ is a waste of good DX. Removes some strange and bad builds.
Should UC builds be included?
Option for UC stacking with Brawling damage?
Filters for what builds that should be included in the one on one matchups. Eg. 1 vs 1, to 3 dragons vs all pole arm users up to a free for all where everyone fights everyone X number of times.
Should talents be included or not.
Point level 32 to 40 has been tested.
Option for a couple of monsters to be included

And then lots of statistics like average damage taken per match or average number of turns in a match, damage absorbed on average per match.

At the moment I can copy the results into Excel if anyone wants to play around, sort compare, etc. the numbers.

At the moment, it is not balanced, but we are not far off. I will post my summary soon for those who are interested in a quick overview of the balancing problems at different power levels.

Last edited by Nils_Lindeberg; 08-17-2018 at 04:15 PM.
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Old 08-05-2018, 12:27 PM   #2
Nils_Lindeberg
 
Join Date: Jul 2018
Default Re: One on One simulation

Here is one test example from the Java App:
Results for 2 heroes, paired up for 5000 bouts each
%Vict stats and equipment
23.2% ST13;DX11;MORNINGSTAR;NO_ARMOR;SMALL_SHIELD
76.7% ST11;DX13;SPEAR;NO_ARMOR;NO_SHIELD


My closest test would be:

22% ST13,DX11,1-handed Bastard Sword, small shield.
78% ST11,DX13,2-h Spear, no armor.

10000 fight:
6520 Forced Retreats
1291 Disengages
17811 Charges (1.8 per fight!)
4136 Attacks on a prone character.
Average length of a fight 2.04 turns.

So it is pretty close already and bastard sword is a slightly better weapon than morning star, but I am not sure if the java applet gets as many charges due to Forced retreats, Disengages and knockdowns. I don't take going Defensively into account yet either. It might change things too.

And to see the true power of pole arms:
17% ST13,DX11,1-handed Bastard Sword, small shield.
83% ST13,DX11,Halberd, no armor.
Average length of fight drops to 1.7 turns. :-)

Change your weapon to a pole arm and you win rate go from 1:1 to 5:1!
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Old 08-05-2018, 03:28 PM   #3
Skarg
 
Join Date: May 2015
Default Re: One on One simulation

Try adding Defend against pole-weapon charges.

Also, if you've got a map, try having the non-pole user moving no closer than enemy MA / 2 +1, and then if the non-pole user wins initiative, try an option to run over and engage from the side, granting a free attack but denying a charge.
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Old 08-05-2018, 05:24 PM   #4
Nils_Lindeberg
 
Join Date: Jul 2018
Default Re: One on One simulation

Defend is the next thing I will look at. Still don't have a good rule of thumb for it. Maybe always defend if a charge is incoming is good enough.

When it comes to charges I just assume that without the 3-hex rule you will always get a charge. Getting around someone and hit them in the side is good against any opponent, so I think that is equal for all so to speak. It is also very hard to rule on since a player that doesn't like their position might just chose to retreat away and approach again. It is almost impossible for a cautious player to get around a player who doesn't take risks and comes in at straight hex line and not a zig-zag line.

The 3-hex charge rule still makes charges a lot harder. Initial contact will result in a non charge if the opponent can win initiative twice in a row. He will go last, close within 3-hexes and if he goes first the charge won't count when he engage. I give that 25% of happening. After a forced retreat or disengage you used to always get a new charge as a pole arm user, now it is a 50/50 chance that you lose initiative and the enemy closes with a 1-hex step, and again no charge. And then finally, in order to do a charge when you are only one hex away you need a minimum of adjMA10, 2 steps backwards and then three forward.

All in all the number of charges will go down significantly and pole charge bonus to hit can not be used to compensate for lower adjDX due to armor since armor also lowers MA.
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Old 08-05-2018, 07:01 PM   #5
Skarg
 
Join Date: May 2015
Default Re: One on One simulation

Hmm.

* I'm not sure I follow your logic on the 3-hex charge. Seems to me that if the non-pole figure moves to engage the polearm user, that's worse for him because it's both a damage bonus and a +4 DX to the polearm receiving the non-pole charge.

* What I meant about moving to the side was that you can do that to avoid allowing the thing I mentioned above, but unless the pole user moved unwisely, it probably needs you to move more than 1/2 MA, so while you prevent his charge defense, you don't get to attack while he gets a normal attack on you.

* The 3-hex charge requirement also doesn't particularly add a lot of obstacle, it seems to me. If you force a retreat and then win initiative and your MA is 10, you can back up two and run three forward to charge again. Probably it will inspire even more polearm users to get the Running talent to make it easier.
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Old 08-06-2018, 08:30 AM   #6
Nils_Lindeberg
 
Join Date: Jul 2018
Default Re: One on One simulation

Cross posting:---sorry about that---

So have I gotten this right?

The new rules for charging would be:

You charge, but you need 3-hex in a straight line. First backing up and then charge is allowed. When I attack I will get first strike, but no +2DX and I will do +1 die damage.

If I get engaged while wearing a pole arm I get a set vs. charge if I face my opponent after movement (no need for a 3-hex move). If I only moved 0 or 1 hex I get a +2 DX, I will strike first and I will get the +1 die damage.

If I move half MA and then my opponent engage me I will get a set vs. charge, with first strike and +1 die damage, but no +2DX since I moved too much.

An enemy can pick the Defend option at any time, but it will not nullify my charge bonus damage, first strike (in case there are others involved) or my set vs. attack DX bonus (if I only moved 0 or 1hex and he engaged+defended me). But I will have to roll 4 dice vs. DX.


I basically need four (%)-values:

Initial charge chance:

Charge chance after a forced retreat:

After a disengage (if you have higher DX and won't lose an attack doing it):

After knocking someone prone: Should be 100% if your MA is at least 10.

And a good rule of thumb for taking the Defend option. Always or just sometimes, if so, when?
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Old 08-06-2018, 10:23 AM   #7
Skarg
 
Join Date: May 2015
Default Re: One on One simulation

(ANSWER CROSS-POSTED TO CROSS-POSTED QUESTION.)

Almost. And, we don't yet know for certain the new unpublished rules, but AFAIK:

To get the +2DX, you have to not even move 1 hex. However you can turn around against someone who ran around to your rear (so I was wrong yesterday in suggesting that was a tactic the non-pole-user should use). (see AM pg.12)

If you force someone to retreat and have MA 10, you can probably back up two and run forward 3 to charge them next turn.

However if you knock them down in the hex next to you, you would need MA 12 to charge them next turn, because you'd have to go back 3 and forward 3, total 6. You could take a turn to move back to get more distance to charge later, but you'd be letting them get up instead of getting to hit them while they're getting up (which hopefully gives you a +4 to hit them, but we don't know exactly how Steve will write the new rules - in old basic Melee you would not get the +4, but in old Advanced Melee you would.

Taking the Defend option is a trade-off of risks, so there's no hard rule without crunching numbers for all results in the specific case. The rule the other simulator used was always taking Defend when faced with a pole weapon charge. As I recall, the result was a slight increase in chance of victory.
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Old 08-06-2018, 10:53 AM   #8
Nils_Lindeberg
 
Join Date: Jul 2018
Default Re: One on One simulation

Thanks Skarg, really appreciated. :-)

I managed pretty well despite not getting MA involved. Mostly the rules for which characters that are viable changed, so pole arm user now shun heavy armor like the plague. :-)

Last edited by Nils_Lindeberg; 08-12-2018 at 02:59 PM.
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Old 08-08-2018, 07:46 PM   #9
Nils_Lindeberg
 
Join Date: Jul 2018
Default Re: One on One simulation

UPDATED

Se first post for the updates.

Last edited by Nils_Lindeberg; 08-12-2018 at 02:59 PM.
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Old 08-11-2018, 06:50 AM   #10
RobW
 
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Join Date: Mar 2018
Default Re: One on One simulation

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nils_Lindeberg View Post
Defend is the next thing I will look at. Still don't have a good rule of thumb for it. Maybe always defend if a charge is incoming is good enough.
Always defend doesn't work if you are lower DX than the pole, as:
Turn 1: pole charges, target defends
Turn 2: pole disengages, target inspects his gear
Turn 3: pole charges, target defends
and loop

Initiative rolls might change the detail, but not the substance, which is that if you have lower DX than the pole in a 1v1 duel, you have to take a chance and not defend. Otherwise the attacks will eventually hit despite the defending and/or the crowd will have you for lack of aggression...
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