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Old 05-18-2021, 07:14 AM   #1
hal
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Buffalo, New York
Default Pro-rating an Enemy Group

Hi All,
Posing this for the Hive mind, largely because I'm not good at translating a simple literary device into actual GURPS points...

This all arose largely because I rarely let players use more than 225 points for character creation, and even then, that is for a SCI-FI campaign, not a supernatural ALMOST superheroes kind of campaign world. My MODERN FANTASY campaign is set in modern times, and posits the idea of "what if GURPS Magic works in Modern Times?". One of the literary devices is the fact that mageborn or psionicists or any other supernatural thing is HUNTED down quite ruthlessly and always with death in mind for the player characters who violate one simple truth: Thou shalt not practice magic openly to the extent it can be proven magic works.

So, for the first time ever, starting points start at 300 for players involved in this particular campaign set in 1920. The one player is strictly human, and has minor mageborn capabilities in the sense he knows a very limited number of spells. I'm also - courtesy of other discussions about Magery, going with an experiment. In my campaign world, all of Earth is mana low save for various places or times. Boundaries between terrain such as a large forest where it meets a beach would be the site where for a short time (2 hours per day, 12 Noon and 12 Midnight) mana is temporarily higher) or boundaries between dimensions (such as might be found at the gateway between Earth and Hades or in the mountains of Greece where the Greek Gods once trafficked) etc.

This time however, I have a player who wants to play a race that is a half-breed human. Just as you might have a child whose mother was mortal and whose father was a God, such a half breed would have certain advantages involved, and an automatic enemy in the form of a group that hunts all supernatural beings into extinction. Now for the fun part. This hybrid human/something character's racial template costs 189 points for its advantages. Of those 189 points, 14 of them really have no purpose in game play. That is like taking Longevity but never having the campaign last long enough for Longevity to have an effect in game play. The remaining 12 points I have to try to recover for the player's use, would require a very specific situation before it would come into play. The player character has to survive a death saving roll. At that point, and only that point, would the advantage come into use. At its lowest level, the advantage could people to take note he is not entirely human. With Modern humanity's way of explaining things (especially in the 1920's) they will simply call it a miracle.
For all intents and purposes, the character thinks he's fully human but for the fact that upon rare occasions, he can see something that just doesn't seem right (yes, Mageborn where he doesn't know magic works and doesn't have training in spell casting as he grew up).

So here is the rub. One of his advantages doesn't affect game play. I really hesitate to hit him up for the advantage cost primarily because unless the game lasts a long time, that advantage will NEVER affect game play. I figure I can dispense with 14 of those points 26 character points. That leaves me with accounting for 12 more character points from his template that is not covered by the 40 points he put into "Reserve".

Long story short: His character, by reason of history and reason of behind the scenes type information (and I suspect that because he frequents this forum, he'll come across this and go "Oh My God!" and realize some things...

1) Because he is a supernatural hybrid (half Man, half Supernatural), he automatically gains THREE enemy groups.

A) a Group who is dedicated to the eradication of all evidence/proof that the supernatural as a whole, exists. If you're a mageborn casting spells that prove magic works, a nice quiet grave awaits you. If you have psionic abilities that allow you to mesmerize huge swaths of people - an unnatural end to your natural lifespan is planned for you. If you exhibit a reliable talent for seeing the future - yup, you guessed it, an end to your natural lifespan is planned for you. In short, if you ain't 100% a normal human being, they want you dead.

B) Another group, really HATES the idea of any of their kind mating with Humanity and producing half breeds of their kind (which this character is). Since he doesn't know who his father is, he doesn't know what their "race" is. If one of their "Brothers" should discover he exists, they will do all they can to Destroy him and find out which of their own sired him. In a one on one, should he face one of them alone, they will best him as easily as an Adult human will best an infant. Such is their powers. The only thing that is unknown, is the fact they can't just willy nilly smite him without following certain protocols. Call it a Code of behavior they can NOT violate. They can SEEMINGLY violate it as far as he is concerned, but - only if he does something stupid, can they really turn a "feint" into a real attack. (and yes, now he's getting THAT clue the moment he reads this, which I do't mind).

C) Alchemists is the third group. The thing is, only the elite few who have access to really OLD formularies, can become his enemy on the merits of the simple fact, that blood from his DEAD body can be distilled from a 2:1 ratio (ie 4 gallons of blood will generate 2 gallons of substance) that effectively act as "Paut" with a 100:1 value (ie 1 once of this stuff grants 100 energy).

2) One character, three potential enemy groups, and two actual secrets. Secret 1 brings ONE organization down to hunt him. That secret only comes into play if he uses his Mageborn advantage. Secret Two only comes into play if one of his physical advantages comes into play proving his father's heritage. Oddly enough, the first time it comes into play requires a Death saving roll. He has "Hard to Kill" that he (the player) is aware of. If he nearly dies, his hidden advantage will come into play, and if THAT secret comes to light, then he has potentially ALL three enemy groups coming out of the wood work.

Group 3 will not come into play unless the newspapers or radio paint the story as a Miracle where the dead came to life - a modern Biblical miracle if you will. Lazarus, move over!

Group 2 will not come into play unless he physically meets the "race" that hates hybrids (literally a 1 in a million chance) or... The newspaper prints the story of his miraculous return from the dead or "Doctors baffled how he does this". Group 2 can POSSIBLY come into play another way, but I don't want the player to know of THAT even from here.

Group 1 will not come into play unless he openly does magic, or they somehow openly identify what his race is. Mundane people will not be able to identify him. Mageborn with the Aura spell will not recognize him for who he is, only that he is more than human. Problem is - the people who are mundane KILL the only people who can identify him for who he is. Only after prolonged attempts to destroy him and various traits of his are activated, will they finally realize what he is, and only then will they rate him as a threat level worse than that of a Vampire. For those who are members of the inner circle, the last of his kind they destroyed, was over 3,000 years ago. Little did Hollywood know, that it was under intense scrutiny in 2020 when a movie was released that had EVERY element right about this "half-breed race" save two things correct. The big question for the inner council was "Did we let five slip through our fingers?" Since the game action takes place in 1920, instead of the current years as I usually play for my campaign world, much of these "clues" aren't necessarily helpful to the player, but if you want a hint about the character race, feel free to email me privately. :)

So, is it valid for a character to have two Secrets that have essentially the same end result (attempted death of the character) but be spread throughout three enemy groups? Is this added complexity worth another 12 points or even 26 points total?

Group 1 will never stop hunting him down until the day the true leader of the inner council makes such a decision. That particular showdown does not need to end in the death of either of the two. In fact, the leader is effectively unkillable.

Group 2 is immortal and has powers such that they will never be killed one on one by a normal mortal, nor likely be killed by a half breed of their kind. Only with AID from others directly opposed to Group 2 can he destroy even ONE of their group, let alone their entire species. So buying off THOSE as a disadvantage is not possible. All the player character can do is hide himself as best as possible when he's discovered. Group 2 has a very strict set of rules as to when they can move about Earth.

Group 3 can be destroyed simply by destroying all copies of the Formulary about turning his blood into a form of Paut. What would you do as a mageborn with 2 gallons of Paut that can grant 25,600 energy points for spell casting over time? As GM, I plan on only have four such books available - one residing in the Vaults of the Vatican.

So, now you have it in a nutshell. When not concerned with character points, the enemy group is simply a literary device. But if you want to actively document it for purposes of Template costs, then that becomes a problem

Now I have to reread Boardrooms and Curia to see if I can stat out the enemy organization instead of simply going by the literary device route of using it.
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Old 05-18-2021, 07:28 AM   #2
naloth
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Default Re: Pro-rating an Enemy Group

Rather than an enemy group that's actively hunting him, this seems like one massive Secret that has the same effect (possible Death) if any group finds out about him.

I'd initially note it as a Secret, but allow it to turn into enemies during game play. If (more likely when) it turns into an enemy, I'd roll once to see if one of the ones hunting him shows up in addition to whatever is going on during the adventure.
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Old 05-18-2021, 07:48 AM   #3
hal
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Buffalo, New York
Default Re: Pro-rating an Enemy Group

My plan when the secret aspect comes into play on a 6 or less, is to roll a reaction roll (no modifiers).

Those who appear with a neutral reaction result - won't care about him or his abilities. They will likely treat him in a fashion that anyone who is secular would do "strange guy" and likely go about their normal business unless they have greed or are investigative journalists or what have you. Since the player character will be moving amongst those who practice Voodoo, they may simply accept him as part of their religious structure and not do much more than that.

A good reaction roll means the person is capable of becoming a Contact for others who wish the player well. A "good conspiracy" group if you will.

A bad reaction roll likely means that the person - unless dealt with, will spill his secrets in a way that will lead to the Hunters. A really BAD reaction roll means that he's stumbled upon an actual Hunter Member outright.

I guess what bothers me a little is that when talking about Patrons, their costs go up if they have supernatural abilities, but Enemy groups do not.
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Old 05-18-2021, 07:53 AM   #4
whswhs
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Lawrence, KS
Default Re: Pro-rating an Enemy Group

in the RAW, a Secret is supposed to subject you to actual bad consequences, if you don't take action to protect it when it comes up. Your reaction rolls have too good a chance of making it have no bad consequences, in which case it should be worth fewer points. At a guess, a 5-point Secret might only be worth -1 or -2 points, for example.
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Old 05-18-2021, 08:13 AM   #5
naloth
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Default Re: Pro-rating an Enemy Group

Quote:
Originally Posted by hal View Post
My plan when the secret aspect comes into play on a 6 or less, is to roll a reaction roll (no modifiers).
Typically when a secret comes into play on a similar roll, but if you don't protect it then you get double the value as disads to replace the secret.

If the entire party has the same general issue, I wouldn't bother noting it as a character disad. I'd just consider it a campaign feature.

Quote:
I guess what bothers me a little is that when talking about Patrons, their costs go up if they have supernatural abilities, but Enemy groups do not.
Patrons aren't usually built with points, and don't usually show up in an adventuring capacity. The aid a Patron renders is usually access, equipment, or behind the scenes. Adding extra-ordinary abilities increases what they can do for you. Besides if "supernatural" is common for the game, it shouldn't cost extra as that's ordinary.

Enemies do usually show up in an adventuring capacity. Any abilities they have are calculated into their point value including any Unusual Background costs for the campaign.
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Old 05-18-2021, 08:47 AM   #6
Varyon
 
Join Date: Jun 2013
Default Re: Pro-rating an Enemy Group

Quote:
Originally Posted by hal View Post
C) Alchemists is the third group. The thing is, only the elite few who have access to really OLD formularies, can become his enemy on the merits of the simple fact, that blood from his DEAD body can be distilled from a 2:1 ratio (ie 4 gallons of blood will generate 2 gallons of substance) that effectively act as "Paut" with a 100:1 value (ie 1 once of this stuff grants 100 energy).
I'd be disinclined to have these as an Enemy Group or similar. Rather, I feel there should be some Disadvantage that represents a character being made of or otherwise containing valuable materials (or even being able to produce them - a drider might be hunted by slavers wanting to imprison her to harvest her silk). Social Stigma: Valuable Property is a start, and might work in this case, with a large Limitation that only a small number of people are aware of it (more than just those with the formulary, of course - you can easily have people going after the character in order to resell him/his blood to someone who does have the formulary).

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Originally Posted by hal View Post
My plan when the secret aspect comes into play on a 6 or less, is to roll a reaction roll (no modifiers).

Those who appear with a neutral reaction result - won't care about him or his abilities. They will likely treat him in a fashion that anyone who is secular would do "strange guy" and likely go about their normal business unless they have greed or are investigative journalists or what have you. Since the player character will be moving amongst those who practice Voodoo, they may simply accept him as part of their religious structure and not do much more than that.

A good reaction roll means the person is capable of becoming a Contact for others who wish the player well. A "good conspiracy" group if you will.

A bad reaction roll likely means that the person - unless dealt with, will spill his secrets in a way that will lead to the Hunters. A really BAD reaction roll means that he's stumbled upon an actual Hunter Member outright.
That's very different from how Secret normally functions, and seems more like a Feature (although probably still a net Disadvantage). When Secret is activated, he's got a ~37% chance of nothing happening, a ~26% chance of actually getting a benefit (possibility of establishing a Contact), and only a ~37% chance of things going poorly, assuming I'm remembering the Reaction Roll table correctly (10-12 for Neutral). That's more like a Secret that activates on a 5 or less (actually less often, but 4 or less is too infrequent) alongside something like perhaps Claim to Hospitality that has a low chance of coming into play.

Considering the odd mechanics (including the whole bit about the Secrets apparently not being in play until the character starts using special abilities), as well as the power levels of the first two conspiracies meaning upon activation they are likely to dominate the campaign's focus, I'd honestly be tempted - if I allowed such a problematic character at all - to at best let the character take a Negative Reputation applying to his enemies (making them less likely to be willing to parlay, as well as more likely to focus on him in combat), and just accept the campaign is going to largely revolve around people trying to capture/kill him.
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Old 05-18-2021, 01:58 PM   #7
hal
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Buffalo, New York
Default Re: Pro-rating an Enemy Group

Thanks All for your responses.

It boils down to the simple fact that in past campaigns, I never bothered with "secret" as a disadvantage unless the players did something to attract the attention, then I went through the process of having the local chapter try and deal with the player characters, and if the local chapter gets wiped out or can't deal with the player characters, they pass the information on to their higher brass and take it from there. The locals don't even realize that they're part of a concentrated organized effort to hunt mageborn and other supernaturals. Some hunt Demons, some hunt witches. Some hunt Vampires. Some just look for the signs and pass it on to the real hunter (Think Bobby from SUPERNATURAL in the first few seasons).

In all, this is mostly a secret war that society is purposefully kept ignorant about for as much as is possible. Having to deal with the secret mechanic means that for the most part, the players don't have to worry about the hunters. Once they appear on the metaphorical radar of the Hunters, then it will be about eluding capture or finding a way to get back out from the radar. If the players end up ON the Radar, and then hit the North American Regional office of the Combine, then there is a chance the ensuing chaos will permit them to return to a lower activation number around 6+ as the combine tries to pick up their spoor yet again. If they can convince the powers that be - they were killed, then they go back to the "secret" stage again.

As an example of play I've used in the past... First encounter with the Combine wasn't even a violent one. The person working with the Combine simply made arrangements to keep them under observation and stayed at a distance. This raised the activation number from the 6 it was, to a 9. As a low priority, the activation was unlikely to rise to a 12 unless the threat assement changed. Threat assesment 0 means they're largely harmless, but will be observed to see what happens. Threat level 1 meant they should be taken out, and soon. Try and lure them to an ambush. Threat level 2 means mobilize troops quickly and take them out hard. Threat level 3 means national awareness and the high council made aware of the situation.

Sometimes - the true believers have the mindset of "I'm sorry, but a team is not available just now, please wait and we'll get to your problem in the order in which it is received and the threat level it is perceived to be."

;)

One mage who can't avoid being mugged is nothing to worry about. One mage who takes over control of a town and uses the Town Police as his personal enforcement squad or protection detail is something else.

I guess in a way, it is a form of reverse Black ops as seen from the target's point of view.
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Old 05-18-2021, 02:07 PM   #8
hal
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Buffalo, New York
Default Re: Pro-rating an Enemy Group

Quote:
Originally Posted by Varyon View Post
I'd be disinclined to have these as an Enemy Group or similar. Rather, I feel there should be some Disadvantage that represents a character being made of or otherwise containing valuable materials (or even being able to produce them - a drider might be hunted by slavers wanting to imprison her to harvest her silk). Social Stigma: Valuable Property is a start, and might work in this case, with a large Limitation that only a small number of people are aware of it (more than just those with the formulary, of course - you can easily have people going after the character in order to resell him/his blood to someone who does have the formulary).



That's very different from how Secret normally functions, and seems more like a Feature (although probably still a net Disadvantage). When Secret is activated, he's got a ~37% chance of nothing happening, a ~26% chance of actually getting a benefit (possibility of establishing a Contact), and only a ~37% chance of things going poorly, assuming I'm remembering the Reaction Roll table correctly (10-12 for Neutral). That's more like a Secret that activates on a 5 or less (actually less often, but 4 or less is too infrequent) alongside something like perhaps Claim to Hospitality that has a low chance of coming into play.

Considering the odd mechanics (including the whole bit about the Secrets apparently not being in play until the character starts using special abilities), as well as the power levels of the first two conspiracies meaning upon activation they are likely to dominate the campaign's focus, I'd honestly be tempted - if I allowed such a problematic character at all - to at best let the character take a Negative Reputation applying to his enemies (making them less likely to be willing to parlay, as well as more likely to focus on him in combat), and just accept the campaign is going to largely revolve around people trying to capture/kill him.
The problem when paranoia is a survial trait is that even a beneficial conclusion to a secret becoming known will cause the players to react as if it were worse case scenario. In addition, a secret with 3 people knowing it only remains a secret if two of them are dead. The more who know the secret, the easier it will be for someone else to let the bag guys know.

For instance, a member of the "Sentinel" teams spot the player characters and decide that they're not worth branding as a threat. They document it in their files, and sit on the secret. Then the Sentinel's home base is broken into by a thief and the files stolen. Normally, another "no real effect" result, yet one that once the player characters are made aware of, will likely prompt them to seek out the thief and recover the stolen files.

So, I roll a secret is uncovered result, it is neutral, and I might have a Sentinel show up sayingn "sorry guys, not your enemy, but we've had you under watch for a little while. We've concluded you're not a threat, but the files we had on you were stolen. If that file gets into the wrong hands, life will get a bit worse for you."

Simple, no real thought needed as to the scope of the potental secret becoming known. Then comes the fateful day when the thief is arrested, and he tells the Police officer grilling him "hey, found a file of some crazy crackpot that thinks magic is real and that Mr Smith and Mr Smith at 1313 Mockingbird Lane." THAT is the lead in to a bad secret got out event. That would be on a roll that is one category under "neutral". two categories under Neutral would be an actual team is there to catch the players in the act. 3 one's is the worst, meaning they're dealing with a really BAD potentail breach of their secret.
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Old 05-20-2021, 10:00 AM   #9
bocephus
 
Join Date: Apr 2019
Default Re: Pro-rating an Enemy Group

**I have never watched "Supernatural", so Im just going off what you wrote.**

Quote:
Originally Posted by hal View Post
I'm not good at translating a simple literary device into actual GURPS points...

This time however, I have a player who wants to play a race that is a half-breed human. such a half breed would have certain advantages involved, and an automatic enemy in the form of a group that hunts all supernatural beings into extinction. This hybrid human/something character's racial template costs 189 points for its advantages. 14 of them really have no purpose in game play. That is like taking Longevity but never having the campaign last long enough for Longevity to have an effect in game play.
If you have already required an "Unusual Background" with a point cost, chuck it under that for an extra point just in case it comes up in an unexpected way later (as in Longevity vs an attack that ages them 10 years, would effectively have no effect). Its a little fast and loose with such a significant advantage, but as you said you dont "expect" it to alter game play (as such it really shouldnt have a point cost).

Now.....

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Originally Posted by hal View Post
The remaining 12 points I have to try to recover for the player's use, would require a very specific situation before it would come into play. The player character has to survive a death saving roll. At that point, and only that point, would the advantage come into use.
Is this "Advantage" expected to alter game play? IE GM, is it EXPECTED that this will come into play? Is it genuinely random? Will the player be playing with the understanding that at some point this really is supposed to happen. (and what is the PCs HT? cause that matters a little for the likelyhood it triggers).

Do you trust the Player to not 'happen to try and trigger this every chance they get?', I assume you do since you reference they also spend time here but I have a couple players I dont think are mature enough to play something like this without doing everything they can to unlock it.

How will this alter all the other PCs stories? do they become largely unimportant at this point? How do they stay involved with a Demi-god in the group (and by virtue of that all his enemies put targets on their heads as well).

Quote:
Originally Posted by hal View Post
Long story short: His character, by reason of history and reason of behind the scenes type information (and I suspect that because he frequents this forum, he'll come across this and go "Oh My God!" and realize some things...

1) Because he is a supernatural hybrid (half Man, half Supernatural), he automatically gains THREE enemy groups.
I rearanged this to put each groups info together.
So 1920s? No TV, Not a huge penetration of Telephone in houses (most were "public areas", just starting to get them into houses). I assume this is taking place in 'America' but that might be a bad assumption. Theres no transatlantic flights, no overseas telephone, theres HAM radio and telegram (super expensive) and really literacy isnt the greatest either outside of major cities. Newspapers couldnt even print pictures till the very end of the 20s.

This makes ID'ing someone really hard. Even if you have a photo its hard to dupicate it, and in B&W.

Quote:
Originally Posted by hal View Post
A) a Group who is dedicated to the eradication of all evidence/proof that the supernatural as a whole, exists. In short, if you ain't 100% a normal human being, they want you dead.

Group 1 will not come into play unless he openly does magic, or they somehow openly identify what his race is.
Group 1 will never stop hunting him down until the day the true leader of the inner council makes such a decision. That particular showdown does not need to end in the death of either of the two. In fact, the leader is effectively unkillable.
So really not a hugely dangerous group unless your downplaying their resources or drive to remove this specific PC from game play.

Quote:
Originally Posted by hal View Post
B) Another group, really HATES the idea of any of their kind mating with Humanity and producing half breeds of their kind (which this character is). Since he doesn't know who his father is, he doesn't know what their "race" is. If one of their "Brothers" should discover he exists, they will do all they can to Destroy him and find out which of their own sired him. In a one on one, should he face one of them alone, they will best him as easily as an Adult human will best an infant. Such is their powers. The only thing that is unknown, is the fact they can't just willy nilly smite him without following certain protocols. Call it a Code of behavior they can NOT violate. They can SEEMINGLY violate it as far as he is concerned, but - only if he does something stupid, can they really turn a "feint" into a real attack. (and yes, now he's getting THAT clue the moment he reads this, which I do't mind).

Group 2 will not come into play unless he physically meets the "race" that hates hybrids (literally a 1 in a million chance) or... The newspaper prints the story of his miraculous return from the dead or "Doctors baffled how he does this".
Group 2 can POSSIBLY come into play another way, but I don't want the player to know of THAT even from here.Group 2 is immortal and has powers such that they will never be killed one on one by a normal mortal, nor likely be killed by a half breed of their kind. Only with AID from others directly opposed to Group 2 can he destroy even ONE of their group, let alone their entire species. Group 2 has a very strict set of rules as to when they can move about Earth.
You have left a LOT of wiggle room for this group to be antagonistic but not outright dangerous. I mean really the individual members of this group dont "HAVE TO HATE the PC", some might pity him, some might have secret offspring of their own, some might owe dad a favor, some might just not care (even thought they are supposed to).

The real cost of this group is completely up to the GM. **on a personal note, I find it hard to believe that a "god like" race would behave this way. Being able to antagonize the PC into accepting a duel he's going to lose. Presumably it would either be "hold the parent accountable" and/or simply destroy the offspring. The doofing around in these weird grey areas is for people that dont really have the power to enforce their will.**

Quote:
Originally Posted by hal View Post
C) Alchemists is the third group. The thing is, only the elite few who have access to really OLD formularies, can become his enemy on the merits of the simple fact, that blood from his DEAD body can be distilled from a 2:1 ratio (ie 4 gallons of blood will generate 2 gallons of substance) that effectively act as "Paut" with a 100:1 value (ie 1 once of this stuff grants 100 energy).

Group 3 will not come into play unless the newspapers or radio paint the story as a Miracle where the dead came to life - a modern Biblical miracle if you will. Lazarus, move over!
Group 3 can be destroyed simply by destroying all copies of the Formulary about turning his blood into a form of Paut. As GM, I plan on only have four such books available - one residing in the Vaults of the Vatican.
They seem fairly low cost as well. I mean 4 books in all existence and word has to get to someone that has actually understood one of them. In the 1920s.

These guys have to hear about it, investigate it, keep track of it, and try to organize to move on it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by hal View Post
2) One character, three potential enemy groups, and two actual secrets. Secret 1 brings ONE organization down to hunt him. That secret only comes into play if he uses his Mageborn advantage. Secret Two only comes into play if one of his physical advantages comes into play proving his father's heritage. Oddly enough, the first time it comes into play requires a Death saving roll. He has "Hard to Kill" that he (the player) is aware of. If he nearly dies, his hidden advantage will come into play, and if THAT secret comes to light, then he has potentially ALL three enemy groups coming out of the wood work.

So, now you have it in a nutshell. When not concerned with character points, the enemy group is simply a literary device. But if you want to actively document it for purposes of Template costs, then that becomes a problem
Its one secret with several outcomes. But its a weird one because the player doesnt know he has it. So its really not a "game play 'disadvantage' secret" until the PC knows he's keeping a secret.

This is more like a Divine Curse than a secret, because the PC has ZERO investment in keeping the secret, its just part of who he is, and whats more he doesnt know it.

Will any of these groups potentially effect the other PCs at the table? If so you could argue that this whole thing is not a disadvantage is just a "world state" till the char actually earns one of these enemies. Still you can 'account' for the points, book keeping wise, as a Divine curse once it triggers makes the PCs life rather sticky.

You dont really have to get really in the weeds till the groups come into play. Yes you need to make a few notes as they develop, how big are they, how well organized, how intelligent, how much resource do they have (people, money, influnece etc).

You have some cool plot hooks, but really none of these groups strike me as inherently as dangerous as your trying to justify them for the point value, or they are WAY more dangerous than what the char gets for value.

If the intention of the GM/Player is not to do everything possible to trigger this, I would advise just lobbing it all under Curse and deal with it "if" it happens. If part of the game concept revolves around this getting triggered then, work up the Enemy Organizations and see where you land with point cost.
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