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Old 06-20-2022, 12:09 PM   #41
Varyon
 
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Default Re: Our timeline gets parachronics in 2022

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Originally Posted by KarlKost View Post
100k would be the largest army ever seen in such a place.
That depends on a lot. I don't think that size of an army would be out of place during the Warring States period of China's history, for example.

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Originally Posted by KarlKost View Post
In fact, there would be no fight at all. What do you think that superstitious natives from the middle ages would do? Try to run a spear into a tank from a horse?
At first, perhaps. Once they figure out (rather quickly) that doesn't work, they would instead be inclined to observe these monsters of metal from a distance, to see if they have any weaknesses, then perhaps attempt to attack the maintenance crews under cover of darkness (TL 3 militaries understand logistics, and will probably recognize that the soldiers are doing maintenance on the vehicles when they inevitably break down). They'll almost certainly lose, of course, but they'll likely learn and adapt with every encounter. Simply being lower TL doesn't make one stupid.

If the invaders manage to make themselves look like conquering gods, and avoid the natives seeing their mistakes and problems, maybe they can get the sort of result you're expecting. Personally, my guess is that they'll handily defeat the natives with few casualties, but they'll have to deal with insurgents. Sure, the insurgents not having firearms and explosives (at least, until they steal them and figure out how to use them) makes things easier, but a shiv to the throat is a shiv to the throat regardless of TL.
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Old 06-20-2022, 12:15 PM   #42
Tom Mazanec
 
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Default Re: Our timeline gets parachronics in 2022

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I thought this were to be the first step towards developing parachronic travel. If it's just one gateway to just a single world it changes things a bit
Yes. Of course after a couple decades maybe a few more get discovered.
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Old 06-20-2022, 12:21 PM   #43
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Default Re: Our timeline gets parachronics in 2022

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After the Ukrainian war do you still believe in that?

r".
Since there's been no nuclear weapons involved in the Ukraine war, yes, I continue to believe that. Russia has been intermittently at war with Ukraine for as long as the said polities have existed, every time a Russian ruler gets to feeling his imperial oats. China hasn't engaged in military expansionism since the conquest of Tibet, and is presently engaged in a program of soft power projection in Africa via things like financing local infrastructure projects. They don't want a nuclear wastland, they want to be the leaders of a civilized (by their definition, naturally) world. I expect you would see a lot of that in our TL3 world as well, Chinese "goodwill" missions where they'd build roads and bridges and aqueducts and maybe railroads or electric generators, which would coincidentally lead to places with lots of valuable mineral concessions, and local leaders who had a problem with that would find themselves om the wrong end of a coup. The US and EU would probably do similar things with different associated rhetoric, while Russia would most likely just seize what they want at gunpoint with no pretenses. Note that the presence of these projects would aslo make smuggling nukes much harder for anyone who might be so inclined. Past that it depends on how hard and how expensive it it is to make parachronics work and who has access to the technology.
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Old 06-20-2022, 03:07 PM   #44
Willy
 
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Default Re: Our timeline gets parachronics in 2022

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SNIP

I may well be underestimating the dangers, however.

SNIP
ImhO yes. Because look at the rate a disease can spread, once it´s on our planet, it can travel in less than 24 h around the world, infecting folks and other travellers on the way.

A world where you travel by ship is much safer in this case. A sea travel of several days, is basically a quarantine for every person and livestock on the ship.

Look at SARS, if a certain person hadn´t feeled ill and choosen not to travel further, SARS could have been spread like Covid. One of the groups the person avoided to contact this way, was a meeting of the worldwide leading disease specialists... .Or if a specialist hadn´t analyzed the virus and calmed the hospital personal, the staff had run away spreading SARS and research had been delayed for weeks. The guy was infected and died.

We were lucky over the past decades in spite of free trade and travel, without health checks and such. At least 5 times in my lifetime, a disease whoose spread would have had brought a situation, like the actual pandemic at it´s height, was stopped due to sheer luck, a quick response or other reasons who are not guaranted. The Ebola outbreak a few years ago spreading over a handful of neighboring nations was a very close call. Once the disease reaches several nations, with enough people close enough, and rich enough to fly, we can´t stop it.

Covid is just the first one, in my lifetime, were we botched the first response.

Last edited by Willy; 06-20-2022 at 03:08 PM. Reason: spelling error
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Old 06-20-2022, 03:29 PM   #45
KarlKost
 
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Default Re: Our timeline gets parachronics in 2022

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At first, perhaps. Once they figure out (rather quickly) that doesn't work, they would instead be inclined to observe these monsters of metal from a distance, to see if they have any weaknesses, then perhaps attempt to attack the maintenance crews under cover of darkness (TL 3 militaries understand logistics, and will probably recognize that the soldiers are doing maintenance on the vehicles when they inevitably break down). They'll almost certainly lose, of course, but they'll likely learn and adapt with every encounter. Simply being lower TL doesn't make one stupid.
They would do no such a thing! That's absolutely preposterous! Only a deranged madman would try to get anywhere near the weird horseless metal wagon and its sourcerous withcraft! They would all run as if they had seem the devil face to face!

The only thing that would happen would be a frenzy of religious lunacy and chaotic panic spreading over entire civilizations!

Just imagine extraterrestrial aliens coming to Earth and attacking us with nanomachine goo... What would we do? NOTHING! We would pray! People would indulge in nihilistic hedonism or maniac behavior and that's pretty much it!

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Old 06-20-2022, 03:34 PM   #46
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That's why they would go on a conquest spree of other worlds, precisely because they have horrible demographics and economies.
Chicken-and-egg problem. Russia now doesn’t have enough people to supply an army that could effectively occupy even one other world, let alone hundreds. So it can’t get into the situation where the otherworlds would supply the troops with which to occupy each other for the Russians.

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How much do you think you need to conquer a TL 3 or 4 world?
To destroy the native governments, over an extended campaign? Not many. Thirty thousand, perhaps. To establish a new government or sieze the native one? It would take one infantry soldier per forty population, just like always.

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100k would be the largest army ever seen in such a place.
Maybe. It would also consume eight thousand tonnes of supply per day in a world with no railways or decent roads. And it would struggle to move.

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Those worlds would become sources of raw material and unskilled slave labor.
Russia doesn’t need raw materials, and neither country needs unskilled labour. They need engineers and skilled manual trades workers. And they need a change of social and economic circumstances that would induce their families to have twice as many children. And then they would need educators. And thirty years lead time before their skilled workforces started growing again.
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Old 06-20-2022, 03:56 PM   #47
Willy
 
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Chicken-and-egg problem. Russia now doesn’t have enough people to supply an army that could effectively occupy even one other, let alone hundreds. So it can’t get into the situation where the otherworlds would supply the troops with which to occupy each other for the Russians.
SNIP
Seconded everything you wrote - for russia! But keep in mind we have also China and India on earth, they have china for the next decades ( they have a really old population and few children which will give them hell before mid century ) and india for the next century ( a much younger population still growing and a heavy male overshot ) enough troops to keep a whole planet under occupation. And they may have enough unskilled labour at hand, but are greedy for ressources. Add to this that india has due to climate change is heavily threatened by overpopulation.

The other nations on earth would use other approaches more friendly to the natives or are just to insignificant in the power balance, or are hampered otherwise.
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Old 06-20-2022, 04:19 PM   #48
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Default Re: Our timeline gets parachronics in 2022

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.

If the invaders manage to make themselves look like conquering gods, and avoid the natives seeing their mistakes and problems, maybe they can get the sort of result you're expecting.
What discipline would that require of your troops? Not to swap kit for booze and sex and interesting native intoxicants? Not to pillage homes and castles of trivial trinkets? Not to rape? Not to goof off? Do we see such discipline in the forces in question?

What forbearance would it require of enemies and rivals on Earth not to send in Green Berets to disabuse your subjects of your propaganda?

Will not the inevitable plague of missionaries object to and subvert your God gambit?
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Old 06-20-2022, 04:24 PM   #49
KarlKost
 
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Default Re: Our timeline gets parachronics in 2022

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To destroy the native governments, over an extended campaign? Not many. Thirty thousand, perhaps. To establish a new government or sieze the native one? It would take one infantry soldier per forty population, just like always.
10 k soldiers of modern infatry with rifles could seize ANY TL 3. After that, it wouldnt need 1 soldier per 20 civilians. Those civilians wont have fireweapons to fire the soldiers. It's vastly different from modern partisans that will also arm themselves.

Besides, that wouldnt even be necessary. You would just seize the capital of any empire and establish a HQ there, with the emperor and ministers as your puppets. What will the pesants do anyway? Storm your castle with torches and crossbows against ak-47's? That would never happen. And the very first revolt that you massacre with extreme prejudice with say, 2k soldiers, would have the rest of the populace to keep on line and realize how foolish it is to try.

And you establish a colonial protectore how all colonies were established. How? By using the local aristocracy.

You get the natives to exploit themselves on your behalf in no time. And I know we all love to cheer for an underdog, but this notion of TL3 peasants rebelling against a TL8 almost 9 occupation is just Hollywood nonsense. Just imagine us trying to rebel against a TL10 alien race. It's absurd.


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Maybe. It would also consume eight thousand tonnes of supply per day in a world with no railways or decent roads. And it would struggle to move.
For a modern day war, yes. But a single group of special forces could seize the palace of a king and turn him into a puppet.


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Originally Posted by Agemegos View Post
Russia doesn’t need raw materials, and neither country needs unskilled labour. They need engineers and skilled manual trades workers. And they need a change of social and economic circumstances that would induce their families to have twice as many children. And then they would need educators. And thirty years lead time before their skilled workforces started growing again.
Yeah. But raw materials and labor never hurts. This would've helped Russia a great deal up to last year however. Today not so much due to their isolation. But still it doesnt hurt.

Now, we actually have pretty solid real world examples, and those werent even at such an abysmal technological gap. Cortez for example conquered the Aztecs with just 2000 conquistador. He had only 500 horseman, and his gunpowder weapons werent so much better than bows. The Portuguese conquered Indonesia with 3000 men. Pizarro was something similar with the Incas, although I dont remember the exact numbers. The Great Navigations era is filled with situations of europeans massively outnumbered by natives and yet not only obtaining victory but inflicting massive casualties. And again, the tech gap wasnt even so colossal.

The natives of a TL3 wouldnt fight AT ALL, they would either be so filled with panic that it would lead to social collapse as everybody tries to escape, or they would worship the newcomers as gods or something in between.
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Old 06-20-2022, 04:35 PM   #50
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Default Re: Our timeline gets parachronics in 2022

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10 k soldiers of modern infatry with rifles could seize ANY TL 3. After that, it wouldnt need 1 soldier per 20 civilians. Those civilians wont have fireweapons to fire the soldiers.
They won’t need them. Occupation troops aren’t for slaughtering rioters. They are for preventing local tough guys from running an alternative government. So long as the Resistance has weapons that can harm a local civilian they have arms enough.

Quote:
Now, we actually have pretty solid real world examples, and those werent even at such an abysmal technological gap. Cortez for example conquered the Aztecs with just 2000 conquistador.
The Spanish invaded the American mainlands in about 1500 and by 1610 they were still not in complete control.

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The natives of a TL3 wouldnt fight AT ALL, they would either be so filled with panic that it would lead to social collapse as everybody tries to escape, or they would worship the newcomers as gods or something in between.
I don’t think that’s at all certain, and even if it is that wouldn’t supply either Russia or China with the young skilled workers that they need to prevent population collapse.

China and Russia are not going to get enough time to recruit and train enough sepoys and shikaris to rule a hundred worlds, especially given the language problem. They aren’t going to survive this decade.
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