JFK Assassination

[PPoS]

According to these calculations; Lee Harvey Oswald would have had an effective skill of x when shooting the fatal shot.

As heard on a documentary about the incident, the fatal shot came about 4 seconds after the first shot that hit JFK.

Oswald used a Carcano M91/38 rifle (Acc 4) with a 4x scope (variable in GURPS terms.) Oswald was a great shot, he scored high in military rifle training (a GURPS skill of 15, or possibly 16.)

From his position, he would have been approximately 80 yards or so from JFK and with an approx. 16 yards of elevation. The car JFK was riding was going at a speed of about 8 mp/h. Oswald aimed at the President's head. This would bring the total modifier to about -17. (Calculating range by using the "Firing Upward and Downward" rules.)

Counting from 4 seconds (4 turns):

Turn #1: Oswald Aims (+4 Acc, +1 Braced)
Turn #2: Oswald Aims (+1 Acc Scope)
Turn #3: Oswald Aims (+1 Acc Scope)
Turn #4: Oswald Fires (Total Acc of +7; Effective Skill of 22-17= 5)

If Oswald would've had a Rifle skill of 16, his effective skill would have been 6.

How does this look ? Was it just a lucky shot ?
Any suggestions or facts that I have left out ?

[ed_209a]

Since he wouldn't expect the Dallas PD quite yet, he may have taken OOA(Determined) for another +1.

Maybe the Soviets sent him to sniper school and he had Precision Shooting?

Maybe he just got lucky.

Oh, something I just noticed. He would get the +2 for the 4x scope and the +2 for the two extra sec of aiming. He just couldn't get the benefit of more than a 4x scope with only 2 sec aiming.

Together, that makes his roll a 9-.

[jason taylor]

I'm betting on the just got lucky. From all I've heard he did not seem like a professional killer. He was also likely acting on his own; few famous American assassins really seem to be acting on anyone's orders. They say he had Communist ties, but that is arbitrary as he seems to have had the personality of someone who would do something odd whatever his beliefs.

In fact he really seemed more like a neer do well then anything else.

[Celjabba]

Yes, all out attack give him a +1.
Possibly also +1 for higher purpose.
No +1 from weapon bond , however.
It is a sniper rifle. Acc 5 ?
On the other hand i would give him a skill of 14, personnaly.

Shouldn't the aim calculation be :
acc(+4/5)+bracing(+1)+aiming(+2)+scope(+2) or +9/+10

So, skill 14, +1 aoa, +9 aiming -17: minimum effective skill 7
Up to effective skill 11, with more skill, more acc or higher purpose.

First head shot missed by 1: torso shot.
Second head shot : hit.
And 2 miss.
1 success, 1 failure by 1, 2 miss. This is coherent with an effective skill around 8-9.
He was lucky, but not that much.

Of course, this is assuming he was aiming for the head, not for center of mass.
First shot hit the upper torso, second shot the head, but JFK was collapsing at the time.
Could be 2 torso hit with a weapon firing slightly too high ...
In wich case, it become easy shots. (effective skill 15 in worst case-skilll14/acc4).

Celjabba

[AmesJainchill]

Originally Posted by Celjabba

It is a sniper rifle. Acc 5 ?

It is NOT a sniper rifle. It is a perfectly ordinary scoped milsurp bolt-action rifle. Nothing weird about it!

In fact, nowadays we'd say he "bubba'ed" it up with that scope, ruining it's historical value!

[Celjabba]

Originally Posted by AmesJainchill

It is NOT a sniper rifle. It is a perfectly ordinary scoped milsurp bolt-action rifle. Nothing weird about it!

In fact, nowadays we'd say he "bubba'ed" it up with that scope, ruining it's historical value!

My bad.
However, looking at hig tech weapon table, most similar(in a rough sense) weapon have acc 5.
winchester 30/30, m1 garant, lebel, ...

I may be wrong, however, i am definitively not an expert on this.

Celjabba

[Anders]

Originally Posted by jason taylor

I'm betting on the just got lucky. From all I've heard he did not seem like a professional killer.

He was a marine (a Marxist marine, which must have been interesting in the 1960's) who excelled at the shooting range. Perhaps we should Paladin if member of the USMC are professional killers...

[PPoS]

Originally Posted by ed_209a

Since he wouldn't expect the Dallas PD quite yet, he may have taken OOA(Determined) for another +1.

Ah yes, completely forgot about All-out Attacks.

Originally Posted by ed_209a

Maybe the Soviets sent him to sniper school and he had Precision Shooting?

Maybe. But isn't Precision Shooting used to get Aiming bonuses excess of what can already be achieved by Basic Set standards ? He had only 4 seconds to Aim and shoot.

Originally Posted by ed_209a

Oh, something I just noticed. He would get the +2 for the 4x scope and the +2 for the two extra sec of aiming. He just couldn't get the benefit of more than a 4x scope with only 2 sec aiming

Together, that makes his roll a 9-.

Ah thank you for clearing that up; I wasn't sure if the scope bonus would add to the "ordinary" bonus for Aiming.

Originally Posted by Celjabba

My bad.
However, looking at hig tech weapon table, most similar(in a rough sense) weapon have acc 5.
winchester 30/30, m1 garant, lebel, ...

I may be wrong, however, i am definitively not an expert on this.

Celjabba

I used the stats for the rifle in "Pulp Guns 2." Even though the M91/38 isn't specifically statted in the book, I used the stats for the shorter version of the rifle.

[Fred Brackin]

Originally Posted by Asta Kask

He was a marine (a Marxist marine, which must have been interesting in the 1960's)

Late 50s actually but it all fits in generally with him being a paranoid schizophrenic (which argues against him being anybody's tool, much too unreliable).

The 3 shot sequence I've seen that makes more sense is the first shot missing (possibly hitting the tree in his line of fire) and then the next two hitting.

It's possible that Gurps overestimates the dificulty of shots like this.Multiple attempts to replicate this incident haven't proved particulary difficult.

[SuedodeuS]

Originally Posted by PPoS

I used the stats for the rifle in "Pulp Guns 2." Even though the M91/38 isn't specifically statted in the book, I used the stats for the shorter version of the rifle.

A shorter barrel frequently (but not always) means lower Acc. Both the SCAR-L CQC and SCAR-L S have Acc, 4, while the SCAR-L LB has Acc 5 (the differences here are the barrel lengths). So, there is the possibility that Oswald's rifle was Acc 5. There's also the possibility of him using match-grade ammunition (+1 if purchased, +2 if handloaded), although I've never heard this.

Another thing to keep in mind is that, if memory serves, the fatal shot was made from behind/to the side of JFK. According to Martial Arts, this means the Skull is actually only -5 to hit, which gives another +2 over your initial estimate. All told, it looks like Oswald would be operating (assuming AoA, Acc 5, and no points invested in TA) at -5 or so to skill. An impressive shot, but hardly impossible.

'Course, the guy on the Grassy Knoll was probably operating at a bonus to skill, what with the closer range and time for Precision Aiming. :P