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Old 12-29-2024, 01:34 PM   #6631
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Default Re: New Reality Seeds

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Originally Posted by Astromancer View Post
Meanwhile, back in the U.S.S.R., Stalin had spent several more years gutting the Russian military in fits of paranoid frenzy. The Red Army is far weaker.
How are things going in the Far East in this timeline? Did the Soviets expel the Japanese from Mongolia as in OTL? With a weaker USSR, does the Soviet–Japanese Neutrality Pact get signed? Though this gets into the side issue of what is known about the damage of the purges, since a lot of that is stuff that may not be obvious until fighting starts.

If Germany does conquer Russia, Japan is likely to try something in the Soviet Far East. Does this take resources away from the land war in China or the Navy? The latter perhaps not, as inter-service rivalry was a big deal in that era.

The League prevented fascist victory in Spain and delayed war in Europe. What did it do in the Pacific? Were Japanese wars in China delayed or prevented? Were there more effective naval limitation treaties?
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Old 12-29-2024, 03:21 PM   #6632
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How are things going in the Far East in this timeline? Did the Soviets expel the Japanese from Mongolia as in OTL? With a weaker USSR, does the Soviet–Japanese Neutrality Pact get signed? Though this gets into the side issue of what is known about the damage of the purges, since a lot of that is stuff that may not be obvious until fighting starts.

If Germany does conquer Russia, Japan is likely to try something in the Soviet Far East. Does this take resources away from the land war in China or the Navy? The latter perhaps not, as inter-service rivalry was a big deal in that era.

The League prevented fascist victory in Spain and delayed war in Europe. What did it do in the Pacific? Were Japanese wars in China delayed or prevented? Were there more effective naval limitation treaties?
Maybe I need you to fill me in on that. Assume a League of Nations with the extra status of the richest (if most sneered at) democracy in its ranks, a little more coordination (not much), and a fairish bit more luck. Assume, that the main benefit is that the fascist powers are a bit more reticent to strike first because the League at least seems united.
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Old 12-30-2024, 12:34 AM   #6633
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Twilight: 2000 seems like it would fit in as worldline easily. Any thoughts on what homeline et al would want to do with it?
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Old 12-30-2024, 10:50 PM   #6634
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Maybe I need you to fill me in on that. Assume a League of Nations with the extra status of the richest (if most sneered at) democracy in its ranks, a little more coordination (not much), and a fairish bit more luck. Assume, that the main benefit is that the fascist powers are a bit more reticent to strike first because the League at least seems united.
Caveat: I am only at the "Have read a few Wikipedia articles about it" level of knowledge.

There were various treaties trying to limit the number and size of warships between the wars. The Japanese eventually got fed up with being told they had to have smaller navies than the UK and US, and renounced them.

With the US in the LoN, I assume that the isolationist tendency in the US was less prominent. From that I am proposing:

The LoN has some effectiveness at impeding the Japanese drive to conquer their own overseas empire, while helping the other members keep their existing overseas empires. So Japan is even more resentful of being held back from their destiny. They formally stay in longer because the LoN is stronger, but they really don't like it. Their conquests in China are delayed and less blatant.

The border conflicts with Soviet Union get more resources from Japan, and are longer and bloodier. A peace settlement is reached, but the Soviet victory is less clear, and the situation remains tense. This means that when or if Germany does attack the USSR, the forces on that front can't be pulled away as they were in OTL.

With a less isolationist Congress more willing to spend money on the Navy, and Japan more annoyed, the naval limitations treaties are much less effective. They are nominally limiting tonnage and ship counts, but the limits are higher. One divergent effect of this is that aircraft carriers are less common, because you don't get half-built cruisers or battleships converted into carriers as in OTL.

So carriers are smaller. There are fewer submarines because you can't afford everything.

So when or if the naval war in the Pacific does come, it works out differently since there are more big gun ships and fewer aircraft carriers.

Separately, if WWII is delayed, Indian nationalism has more time to build, meaning more trouble for the UK. Would there be more trouble in other overseas colonies?

(I am tempted to have WWII in this time line start in the Pacific instead of Europe, but maybe another timeline.)
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Old 12-31-2024, 08:17 AM   #6635
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Caveat: I am only at the "Have read a few Wikipedia articles about it" level of knowledge.

There were various treaties trying to limit the number and size of warships between the wars. The Japanese eventually got fed up with being told they had to have smaller navies than the UK and US, and renounced them.

With the US in the LoN, I assume that the isolationist tendency in the US was less prominent. From that I am proposing:

The LoN has some effectiveness at impeding the Japanese drive to conquer their own overseas empire, while helping the other members keep their existing overseas empires. So Japan is even more resentful of being held back from their destiny. They formally stay in longer because the LoN is stronger, but they really don't like it. Their conquests in China are delayed and less blatant.

The border conflicts with Soviet Union get more resources from Japan, and are longer and bloodier. A peace settlement is reached, but the Soviet victory is less clear, and the situation remains tense. This means that when or if Germany does attack the USSR, the forces on that front can't be pulled away as they were in OTL.

With a less isolationist Congress more willing to spend money on the Navy, and Japan more annoyed, the naval limitations treaties are much less effective. They are nominally limiting tonnage and ship counts, but the limits are higher. One divergent effect of this is that aircraft carriers are less common, because you don't get half-built cruisers or battleships converted into carriers as in OTL.

So carriers are smaller. There are fewer submarines because you can't afford everything.

So when or if the naval war in the Pacific does come, it works out differently since there are more big gun ships and fewer aircraft carriers.

Separately, if WWII is delayed, Indian nationalism has more time to build, meaning more trouble for the UK. Would there be more trouble in other overseas colonies?

(I am tempted to have WWII in this time line start in the Pacific instead of Europe, but maybe another timeline.)
Many historians would argue that WWII did start in the Pacific in Our timeline. Certainly China and Japan were at war two years before Germany invaded Poland.
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Old 12-31-2024, 09:03 AM   #6636
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Many historians would argue that WWII did start in the Pacific in Our timeline. Certainly China and Japan were at war two years before Germany invaded Poland.
True. OTOH I can claim it wasn't *world* war until December 1941. But then you get into problems about WWI...
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Old 12-31-2024, 09:54 PM   #6637
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True. OTOH I can claim it wasn't *world* war until December 1941. But then you get into problems about WWI...
It could also be argued that WWI and WWII were one war, just with an 'armistice for twenty years' in the middle.
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Old 01-01-2025, 05:37 AM   #6638
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Separately, if WWII is delayed, Indian nationalism has more time to build, meaning more trouble for the UK. Would there be more trouble in other overseas colonies?
Indian nationalism was making quite good progress in the late 1930s, with regional governments being elected and governing successfully. This got badly messed up in 1939, when the Viceroy, Lord Linlithgow, rejected the request that India would be given the chance to determine its own future after the war and declared war on Germany without any consultation with Indian politicians.

He did have legal authority to do that, just about, but it was a very poor political move, and the regional governments mostly resigned because of it. If the outbreak of war for the UK is delayed a couple of years, then Linlithgow will very likely have been replaced, simply because he'd been Viceroy since April 1936. There's a good chance that someone more collegial will have the post.
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Old 01-02-2025, 09:35 AM   #6639
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Basically, this is a WWII replay with substantially different possibilities.
I dunno, with a three year delay to the war, British rearmament might build up enough to stop the war from breaking out, or just leading to a short curb-stomping of Germany. Especially if Hitler has a less firm grip on the state. If he deferred to his generals, and didn't push for the KO on France, the war could have been drawn out and Hitler would likely face the same fate as the Kaiser. Or if the Little Entente stayed together, and the Allies didn't pursue appeasement and allow Hitler to dismember Czechoslovakia... Well, Germany surrounded and engulfed is certainly a possibility.
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Old 01-02-2025, 01:26 PM   #6640
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Twilight: 2000 seems like it would fit in as worldline easily. Any thoughts on what homeline et al would want to do with it?
Homeline might want to see if a little covert aid might make things better. They'd also want details on the consequences of the war like nuclear autumn, fall out, medical consequences and birth defects.

Giving aid would be a great cover for gathering information. In fact giving EFFECTIVE aid would require gathering a great deal of the information Homeline would want.

Centrum would want similar things plus find ways to gain control.

The Cabal might want to restore order in such a way as to have many many strings to pull.
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