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Old 12-27-2018, 11:54 AM   #11
Tyneras
 
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Default Re: GURPS Space: Carrying Capacity

Most people on Earth are not living at a TL8 Average level, so their resource demands are quite a bit less.

Quality of resource extraction, processing and disposal/recycling is also highly varied. Some areas are on a fast route to exhausting their environment, while others can maintain their activities indefinitely (forests in many industrial nations are expanding due to the switch from old growth logging to tree farming, for example).

So, it's complicated. Current situation is not good, but not as bad as that calculation would predict. The future is a moving target, after all.
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Last edited by Tyneras; 12-27-2018 at 12:01 PM.
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Old 12-27-2018, 12:06 PM   #12
David Johnston2
 
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Default Re: GURPS Space: Carrying Capacity

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Most people on Earth are not living at a TL8 Average level, so their resource demands are quite a bit less.
That's what the reduced income level from exceeding carrying capacity represents.
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Old 12-27-2018, 12:51 PM   #13
AlexanderHowl
 
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Default Re: GURPS Space: Carrying Capacity

The average is TL8 Poor when you account for the difference in GURPS $ and 2018$.
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Old 12-27-2018, 06:23 PM   #14
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Default Re: GURPS Space: Carrying Capacity

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Originally Posted by Tyneras View Post
Most people on Earth are not living at a TL8 Average level, so their resource demands are quite a bit less.
According to GURPS Space high tech level increases carrying capacity, it does not reduce it.
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Old 12-27-2018, 09:30 PM   #15
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Default Re: GURPS Space: Carrying Capacity

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According to GURPS Space high tech level increases carrying capacity, it does not reduce it.
It improves agricultural and mining productivity and manufacturing. The technology level of the possessions of the individual not so much.
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Old 01-16-2019, 01:23 AM   #16
doctorevilbrain
 
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Default Re: GURPS Space: Carrying Capacity

What is the carrying capacity based on? Is it realistic? Unfortunately Gurps Space doesn't give any information about why it says what it says.
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Old 01-16-2019, 07:10 AM   #17
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Default Re: GURPS Space: Carrying Capacity

It's worth noting that GURPS Space says explicitly that the figures on carrying capacity for TL8+ are speculative, and that economists and ecologists disagree on them. And of course they have to be; they state that if you're above carrying capacity, you will undergo resource deplation and economic collapse over several generations, but we haven't been at TL8 for multiple generations, so that statement is unfalsifiable. That's not to say it's WRONG; just that it's not based on empirical evidence.

It's not certain, either, that we will ever have that evidence. Will we even stay at TL8 for multiple generations? We were at TL6 for two or three generations, and at TL7 for less than two; we may reach TL9 before many more years. And then the GURPS Space rules make different predictions.

Even setting that aside, there's more than one way to model Earth now. The simple model is to say that we have Affinity 8, carrying capacity 2.5 billion, and divisor 3.5, getting us to 7 billion (in between divisor 4, 6.25 billion, and divisor 3, 8.33 billion). But what if we have Affinity 9 for high resources, with carrying capacity 5 billion? Divisor 7 then gets us to 7 billion, which is a lot less strain. And if we reach TL9, carrying capacity is 10 billion, and we're well under that.

Basically, there's room to tweak your assumptions to fit what you believe is plausible and/or makes a dramatic setting, even within the rules of GURPS Space.
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Old 01-16-2019, 02:07 PM   #18
jason taylor
 
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Default Re: GURPS Space: Carrying Capacity

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Originally Posted by whswhs View Post
It's worth noting that GURPS Space says explicitly that the figures on carrying capacity for TL8+ are speculative, and that economists and ecologists disagree on them. And of course they have to be; they state that if you're above carrying capacity, you will undergo resource deplation and economic collapse over several generations, but we haven't been at TL8 for multiple generations, so that statement is unfalsifiable. That's not to say it's WRONG; just that it's not based on empirical evidence.

It's not certain, either, that we will ever have that evidence. Will we even stay at TL8 for multiple generations? We were at TL6 for two or three generations, and at TL7 for less than two; we may reach TL9 before many more years. And then the GURPS Space rules make different predictions.

Even setting that aside, there's more than one way to model Earth now. The simple model is to say that we have Affinity 8, carrying capacity 2.5 billion, and divisor 3.5, getting us to 7 billion (in between divisor 4, 6.25 billion, and divisor 3, 8.33 billion). But what if we have Affinity 9 for high resources, with carrying capacity 5 billion? Divisor 7 then gets us to 7 billion, which is a lot less strain. And if we reach TL9, carrying capacity is 10 billion, and we're well under that.

Basically, there's room to tweak your assumptions to fit what you believe is plausible and/or makes a dramatic setting, even within the rules of GURPS Space.
Having multiple rises and falls like Chinese or Middle Eastern politics allows technology to wax and wane and be scattered about unevenly so you can pretty much set it wherever you want without that pesky thing of being outdated by the latest gadget.
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Old 06-14-2020, 08:13 PM   #19
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Default Re: GURPS Space: Carrying Capacity

Earth is experiencing global poverty because of overpopulation?! Where did you get that idea?
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Old 06-14-2020, 08:31 PM   #20
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Default Re: GURPS Space: Carrying Capacity

This thread died nearly a year and a half ago. Does it really need to be exhumed?
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