How tough must a dragon be at TL8?

[roguebfl]

Originally Posted by Not another shrubbery

Not wanting to bother with the combinatorics problem, but... just eyeballing it, it looks like there is a fair chance of a death check being required.

Assuming a failed Dodge. Unlike WWII Aircraft carriers, they are likely to successfully dodge.

[Anthony]

Originally Posted by Not another shrubbery

Not wanting to bother with the combinatorics problem, but... just eyeballing it, it looks like there is a fair chance of a death check being required.

Yeah, though the odds depend on how you roll the dice (300d? Not very likely. 3d*100? 50%).

[Fred Brackin]

Originally Posted by roguebfl

Assuming a failed Dodge. Unlike WWII Aircraft carriers, they are likely to successfully dodge.

For amulti-hex figure to avoid being Slammed by another multi-hex figure I'd want something like a Dive For Cover situation. The dragion moving slightly within its' own hex isn't going to be enough.

[lexington]

Originally Posted by Anthony

Yeah, though the odds depend on how you roll the dice (300d? Not very likely. 3d*100? 50%).

I don't see why the odds change. 3d*100 is just flatter.

[roguebfl]

Originally Posted by lexington

I don't see why the odds change. 3d*100 is just flatter.

And the fact that it flatter is what changes the odds at least 1050 points of damage is 50% on both. However.

1050 - 100 means (assuming no injury mod) 950 injury, at 500 HP that is not quite a Death check.

1100 or more is needed for at least one death check.Which is 50% likely on 3d*100, however on 300d it is 4.715%

http://www.anwu.org/games/dice_calc.html

[Not another shrubbery]

Originally Posted by roguebfl

1100 or more is needed for at least one death check.Which is 50% likely on 3d*100, however on 300d it is 4.715%

http://www.anwu.org/games/dice_calc.html

Huh... I was guessing it would be 2-3 times that :/ Thanks for that link... looks like it might be useful.

[lexington]

Originally Posted by roguebfl

And the fact that it flatter is what changes the odds at least 1050 points of damage is 50% on both. However.

1050 - 100 means (assuming no injury mod) 950 injury, at 500 HP that is not quite a Death check.

1100 or more is needed for at least one death check.Which is 50% likely on 3d*100, however on 300d it is 4.715%

http://www.anwu.org/games/dice_calc.html

Huh, still I don't get why that would be.

[Dunadin777]

Originally Posted by lexington

Huh, still I don't get why that would be.

It's all about deviation. If you need to roll, say 1200 damage, that's not as much of an exceptional roll on 3d*100 as on 300d, much the same way that 3d is a more dynamic result spread than a d20. The more independent chances there are, the more skewed the results become towards the average. Looking at the 3d*100 vs 300d example, look at the odds of max damage:

With 3d*100, you have a (1/6^3) 0.5% chance of rolling max damage--1800 damage!
With 300d, you have a (1/6^300) tiny/minute/chincy chance of rolling max damage.

They both have a 50/50 chance of rolling 1050 damage, but the standards of deviation from there are vastly divergent.