11-02-2021, 03:47 PM | #1 |
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Boston area
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Missile spells and minimum damage
I don't really have any questions here, but I was messing around with a spreadsheet and calculated the expected value of each of the missile spells at each of their strengths (ST 1, 2 or 3, ignoring rods with unlimited ST castings). I hope this is at least modestly interesting.
I was curious how much good the guaranteed minimum damage produced -- how much of a consolation prize is it, anyway? If I cast a 3 point Magic Fist or Fireball, I know that I'll cause at least 3 points of damage. That's better than nothing, right? Now, notably, the rules say "with minimum damage equal to that ST", not that the minimum of each die rolled will be 1. That means if I roll a 1 and a 4 when casting Magic Fist, I only get two damage since it is calculated as max{2, d_0 - 2 + d_1 - 2} and NOT max{1, d_0 - 2} + max{1, d_1 - 2}. The latter is, of course, always greater than or equal to the former. So, anyway, here are my results. Code:
1 2 3 Magic fist 2.00 3.56 5.08 Fireball 2.67 5.11 7.57 Lightning 3.50 7.00 10.50 I was surprised how little the minimum damage guarantee matters for a 3 ST fireball. It just barely affects the expected outcome (since, for Fireball, say, it only comes up when you roll a 3, 4 or 5 on three dice, so not bloody often). Without that minimum damage guarantee, the expected outcomes are Code:
1 2 3 Magic fist 1.67 3.11 4.57 Fireball 2.50 5.00 7.50 Lightning 3.50 7.00 10.50 And were the rule "minimum one damage for each die" -- which it totally and obviously is not, but I'm playing with numbers so don't stop me -- the expected values would be: Code:
1 2 3 Magic fist 2.00 4.00 6.00 Fireball 2.67 5.33 8.00 Lightning 3.50 7.00 10.50 Last edited by phiwum; 11-02-2021 at 06:19 PM. |
11-02-2021, 05:59 PM | #2 |
Join Date: Jun 2018
Location: Durham, NC
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Re: Missile spells and minimum damage
Yes.
BTW, you wrote, "(since, for Fireball, say, it only comes up when you roll a 3 or 4 on three dice, so not bloody often)" But really it is a roll of 3, 4 or 5 that gets affected by this rule. Minor correction. |
11-02-2021, 06:21 PM | #3 | |
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Boston area
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Re: Missile spells and minimum damage
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My apologies to anyone who made critical decisions based on that error. |
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11-11-2021, 04:17 AM | #4 |
Join Date: Jul 2019
Location: Cali
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Re: Missile spells and minimum damage
For me it was always less about the "average damage" you could plan for, but more about the Epic high roll, or disappointing low roll that those 3 dice might yield.
Magic Fist is less about damage to foe, as it is special attack possibilities via it's telekinetic blow. I mean dice roll result of a 1, 2, or 3 results in a single point for each die by the ST guarantee, and If I roll three 3s (considered close to avg.) I STILL only get 3 points total regardless. But the knockdown potential, or knock off a narrow pathway etc... has value. Knockdown in TFT can be the kiss of death, nobody wants to be prone in combat. The Beauty of Magic Fist is a single point of ST can achieve a knockdown result. |
11-12-2021, 07:55 PM | #5 | |
Join Date: Jun 2018
Location: Durham, NC
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Re: Missile spells and minimum damage
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But yes, I agree with your point that MF's knock down is the best part of this spell. |
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11-12-2021, 08:09 PM | #6 | |
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Boston area
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Re: Missile spells and minimum damage
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11-12-2021, 09:51 PM | #7 |
Join Date: Jun 2018
Location: Durham, NC
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Re: Missile spells and minimum damage
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11-13-2021, 06:54 AM | #8 |
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Boston area
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Re: Missile spells and minimum damage
Well, I suppose that I was overestimating the odds of a 1 ST Magic Fist knockdown.
You need to roll a 4 on three dice and then a 5 or 6 for damage OR a 3 on four dice and a 4, 5 or 6 for damage. So, if I'm not mistaken, that's 3/216 * 2/6 + 1/216 * 3/6 and hence about 0.7% chance. That's rare enough not to worry about. So I guess I was just being a pedantic pain in the butt. |
11-13-2021, 10:42 AM | #10 |
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Boston area
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Re: Missile spells and minimum damage
Well, the first step is to find a GM who regards missile spells as a kind of missile weapon. I don't, so Missile Weapons skill doesn't help a wizard in my games.
In general, I find wizards powerful enough. They don't need extra bonuses. |
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