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Old 07-13-2009, 02:45 PM   #1
Tyneras
 
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Default [Mass Combat] Civilian Casualties

How would one model civilian casualties for a 2-way fight taking place in a city or town? My friends and I have been trying cludge something together, and modeling it as a 3 way fight seems like it might work, but so far we keep winding up with the civilians taking 100% casualties long before the 2 armies finish fighting, so we definitely need some tweeking. Has anyone else thought about this?
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Old 07-13-2009, 03:05 PM   #2
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Default Re: [Mass Combat] Civilian Casualties

?Try treating the civilians as being behind fortifications to account for them hiding in their homes and maybe some other modifier for them not being engaged.
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Old 07-13-2009, 05:59 PM   #3
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Default Re: [Mass Combat] Civilian Casualties

Don't forget that the civvies shall be headed away from the FEBA whilst the soldiers shall be headed into the fray.
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Old 07-13-2009, 06:02 PM   #4
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Default Re: [Mass Combat] Civilian Casualties

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Don't forget that the civvies shall be headed away from the FEBA whilst the soldiers shall be headed into the fray.
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Old 07-13-2009, 07:31 PM   #5
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Default Re: [Mass Combat] Civilian Casualties

It seems like it would depend a lot on the type of town and armies involved (the heavier the weapons, the more ruthless the soldiers, and the flimsier the town, the more casualties). In a low-tech siege with the population involved, I would probably count most of the popuation as low-grade troops after the walls were breached. I'm not sure how to model accidental deaths, or deliberate killings by soldiers. Like the exact number of camp followers, wagons, and pack animals in your camp, this may be below the system's resolution.
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Old 07-13-2009, 09:43 PM   #6
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Default Re: [Mass Combat] Civilian Casualties

In most low-tech societies, there was little distinction between soldiers and civilians. Every able-bodied man was expected to fight. The "civilians" would be women, children and old men. Casualties would depend very much on circumstances. There were few weapons capable of causing massive collateral damage. You had to go up to the victim and kill him. Archery, fire and siege weapons were the only way to kill large numbers of people indiscriminately.

If the civilians were well protected (such as in a fortified acropolis) they might survive the fighting pretty well (to be enslaved by the victors!) If all the people joined the fight, things might look different. Many old cultures knew ritual suicide or suicidal fighting tactics to prevent capture.

So, civilian casualties might range from very low to total.
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Old 07-14-2009, 08:16 AM   #7
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Default Re: [Mass Combat] Civilian Casualties

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Originally Posted by ADAXL View Post
So, civilian casualties might range from very low to total.

q.v. Punic War III, 'Now, we're ******'
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Old 07-14-2009, 09:18 AM   #8
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Default Re: [Mass Combat] Civilian Casualties

I'm gathering from this that the number of civilians left (which we were going to use as a rough measure of industrial value) is random enough to be left in the hands of the GM. Drat, now we have to actually assign a GM, I was liking the GM-lessness we had going with Mass Combat.
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Old 07-14-2009, 09:21 AM   #9
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Default Re: [Mass Combat] Civilian Casualties

Well, that is quite a tough question to put a figure to due to all the variables.

For a "first order approximation" I would go with the following assumptions:

  • the civilians are not being specifically targeted by either combatant
  • the ratio of civilian to military casualties decreases as the TL increases due to the logistics (swords can kill over and over without additional supply unlike bullets)
The formula I'd go with would be 12 - TL = Civilian Casualty Multiplier
Example 1: A TL 3 combat results in 10,000 military casualties. 12-3=9 so 10,000 x 9 equals 90,000 civilian casualties.
Example 2: A TL 8 combat results in 4,000 military casualties. 12-8=4 so 4,000 x 4 equals 16,000 civilian casualties.

Option:

If civilians are being targeted or if they are being prevented from fleeing the combat area decrease the assumed TL by 3 with a minimum of TL 1.

Example 3: A TL 3 combat with civilians trapped in a siege results in 10,000 military casualties. 12-3(reduced to 1)=11 so 10,000 x 11 = 110,000 civilian casualties.
Example 4: A TL 8 combat occurs in a region with split ethnic populations in which each tries to kill the others' civilians and results in 4,000 military casualties. 12-8(reduced to 5)=7 so 4,000 x 7 = 28,000 civilian casualties.

The observed result is that at lower tech levels the difference in results between going after civilians, or not, is less pronounced because of the "rape and pillage" effects of low tech warfare near population centers. As the TL increases dramatic separations appear when trying to avoid civilian casualties both because of how the rules of war change and the increased ability to discriminate between target types. You can play with the amount to decrease the effective TL by to simulate weapons of mass destruction (-5 to TL instead of -3) or rugged civilian populace that will defend themselves but not form a "resistance" (-2 to TL instead of -3) and so on.

Last edited by Mi-Go; 07-14-2009 at 09:29 AM.
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Old 07-14-2009, 10:41 AM   #10
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Default Re: [Mass Combat] Civilian Casualties

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Originally Posted by Mi-Go View Post
the ratio of civilian to military casualties decreases as the TL increases due to the logistics (swords can kill over and over without additional supply unlike bullets)
I think this is a flawed assumption. To kill someone with a sword, you have to stick it in them. In modern urban combat, you're spraying bullets towards where you think the enemy is. He may or may not be there, but your bullets are going to keep moving till they hit something. Punching through to the next house and shredding a family is easily attainable for most medium machine guns and up and many assault rifles.
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