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12-26-2018, 04:11 PM | #1 |
Join Date: Aug 2010
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GURPS Space: Carrying Capacity
Does GURPS Space consider Earth to be an Affinity 10 planet? It's obvious it's Habitability 8, but in order to have a sufficient carrying capacity to account for the world's population (10 B) it would have to have Very Abundant resources to get to Affinity 10.
Or am I missing something in the Carrying Capacity calculation? Base Carrying Capacity, TL8: 10 M Affinity Modifier, Affinity 10: 1000 Affinity Modifier, Affinity 9: 500 Diameter: 1 10 M * 1000 * 1^2 = 10 B (Enough!) 10 M * 500 * 1^2 = 5 B (2.5 B short!) If that's the case, I need to reconsider my "Average" resource planet. I modeled its mining activity based on Earth, tweaked for lower tectonics and volcanic activity. But if Earth is Very Abundant, that Average planet would be far less rich in minerals than I've envisioned. |
12-26-2018, 04:32 PM | #2 | ||
Join Date: Aug 2008
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Re: GURPS Space: Carrying Capacity
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So with all of that said, I'd be more likely to believe that Earth hass Average Resources...like most other planets in existence...and expect either a population crash, mass emigration, or the plane to be stripped of all resources and then a massive population crash/extinction.
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12-26-2018, 05:26 PM | #3 |
Join Date: Feb 2016
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Re: GURPS Space: Carrying Capacity
I agree. The Earth is a TL8 society at 3x its carrying capacity (and merrily breeding itself to 4x). This is why we are experience global warming, mass extinctions, crushing poverty, etc.
If the Earth population was 2 billion people, the average income would be $31,000 (GURPS) or $62,000 (2018$). In effect, the average standard of living on Earth would be slightly better than that of the USA. Imagine if the average person in Ethiopia or Bangledesh earned $31,000 (2018$) rather than $900 and you start to understand the difference. The global GDP would be around $62 trillion (GURPS) or $124 trillion (2018$) because there would be less inefficiencies in the global economic system. |
12-26-2018, 08:25 PM | #4 | |
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Lawrence, KS
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Re: GURPS Space: Carrying Capacity
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Bill Stoddard I don't think we're in Oz any more. |
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12-26-2018, 09:21 PM | #5 |
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Buffalo, New York
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Re: GURPS Space: Carrying Capacity
The Malthusians always seem to figure that mankind will hit its limit with respect to resource use, food supply and other factors. Funny thing is, every time they've predicted the end of the world, it hasn't quite hit.
There is more to the equation than simple math, simple economics, or even simple resource allocation and and distribution. Throughout history, we've seen what happens when a political class institutes itself in a manner that becomes parasitic. The more you burden the working class in the form of taxation, and then force them to live by laws regarding "living within your means", the more the tax burdens cause the population being taxed, forced to exchange services in lieu of taxes, food production etc - begin to shrink. Expecting a 2% population growth is simply not viable in the long run and history does not show it to be true. Sure, it CAN happen under the right circumstances - but it almost inevitably slows down. The population of England over the period of several hundred years resulted in a growth rate of .3% per year. Not 2% - but .3 percent. Couple this with the knowledge that medieval England's ruling elite (the roughly 2%) were able to tax the rural peasants some nearly 50 to 55% and even in some instances 60% of their production (what we'd call income) were in large part, living as parasites. What HOST can anyone point to, survive the loss of 50 to 60% of its energy and nutrients and survive as a healthy specimen? So - take a hard look at the taxes being paid by today's young. Add all of the Income Taxes taken by your government(s) in all its levels (Federal, state, Local) and add to that the gasoline taxes levied on your gas that you have to use if you own a vehicle. Then toss in all of the taxes you pay on your cable and phone and internet use. Throw in your property taxes, your fees that you pay to the government for any given thing (car inspections, etc). Want to be that you'd be very close to the 45% to 50% mark? Some European nations are definitively at the 50% mark. Now compare/contrast the birth rates (children per woman) and note that in some countries, the rate is 1.7 to 1.9 (Western Civilizations) and then make the sobering observation that to have a zero percent growth rate, we need a reproduction rate of 2.1 children per woman. One to replace the mother, one to replace the father, and .1 children to account for fatalities before the age of adulthood, disease, fertility issues, and even the decision to not get married or have children at all. So, 2% annual growth without taking into account something as silly as government parasitical behaviors, is kind of like forgetting some basic math functions when adding numbers together that are large in scope. Do I expect the Earth to grow warmer over time? Sure. Is it man-influenced Global Warming? I tend to doubt that. If our sun is 20% brighter today than it was when it first started burning, that implies that it brightens up on its own, whether mankind is present or not. Do we have living records of weather patterns over the last few hundred years? Yup. Do we have historical records of dry/wet hot/cold seasons over time from ancient past periods (we call them petrified wood) and yes, it appears that what we see today has happened in the past. Even California's dry/wet cycles are historical and predate an industrial mankind. <shrug> In the end? The Malthusian alarmists would have us believe that we're heading to perdition if we don't abstain from sinning against Mother Earth. So far their record of being right tends to be dismally low (from a statistical standpoint). As has been pointed out repeatedly, the GURPS WEALTH rules just don't model reality all too well. Trying to utilize those rules for future modeling is going to be inherently fraught with inaccuracies. True story: My father purchased unimproved land back in the mid-50's. He told us all that for what he paid for the land, he could have purchased a GOOD car. After paying property taxes on the land over the years, when he finally sold it (still unimproved), guess what. The money he made on the sale (after capital gains taxes) was enough to buy him a higher end car. So - take it for what it is worth, the economics portrayed in GURPS is not something I'd use for a doctoral thesis. |
06-15-2020, 06:29 AM | #6 | |
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Lawrence, KS
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Re: GURPS Space: Carrying Capacity
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The Simon-Ehrlich wager might also be relevant.
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Bill Stoddard I don't think we're in Oz any more. |
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06-15-2020, 09:35 AM | #7 |
Join Date: Feb 2016
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Re: GURPS Space: Carrying Capacity
How would you explain all of the scale, scope, and speed of the human-caused environmental problems? It is not that human civilization cannot deal with them through investment and technology, it is that they are occurring in the first place that is the sign of exceeding carrying capacity. If we were not exceeding the carrying capacity, we would not be dealing with human-caused environmental problems.
We can also use economics to determine overpopulation. The global per capita nominal income was ~$10,000 in 2017, which is less than one-third of the per capita income suggested for TL8 in Space, which us pretty close to what it should be for a population of 7.5 billion. If Earth possessed Affinity 9, it would have a carrying capacity of 5 billion people and the per capita income would be $23,250. If Earth possessed Affinity 10, it would have a carrying capacity of 10 billion people and the per capita income would be $43,400. |
06-15-2020, 09:52 AM | #8 | |
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Wellington, NZ
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Re: GURPS Space: Carrying Capacity
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Rupert Boleyn "A pessimist is an optimist with a sense of history." |
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06-15-2020, 10:06 AM | #9 | |
Join Date: Jun 2006
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Re: GURPS Space: Carrying Capacity
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Earth's population dynamics for the last century or so are definitely not the equilibrium case that ecological carrying capacity assumes. The debate is over whether that's a sign the carrying capacity increased, resulting an S curve step function, a temporary perturbation that will result in a post J curve crash, or something in between.
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06-15-2020, 12:10 PM | #10 | |
Join Date: Dec 2007
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Re: GURPS Space: Carrying Capacity
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Tags |
earth, gurps, math, planet generation, question, space, system generation |
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