Modelling History Through Cycles

[Sindri]

So I've been looking for whatever long term cycles people have suggested exist for use in modeling history and producing timelines. Infinite World's Development section of History, Already in Progress starting on pg. 99 has been quite useful but I thought I'd ask if any one knows of specific cycles or trends not mentioned there or has thoughts on using stuff like this for their world's history while I'm reading through the literature.

[Frost]

Originally Posted by Sindri

So I've been looking for whatever long term cycles people have suggested exist for use in modeling history and producing timelines... or has thoughts on using stuff like this for their world's history while I'm reading through the literature.

I think that the big one is not to employ them too rigidly having played arround with a few of them, particularly the generational cycle that they give a setting a weirdly artificial feel.

Actualy the generational one is probably one that I would drop all together. While the four types of generational phsycology are potentialy useful it might be better to tie them into specific events i.e. wars or economic disruptions rather than assuming a neat independent progression.

[Sindri]

Originally Posted by Frost

I think that the big one is not to employ them too rigidly having played arround with a few of them, particularly the generational cycle that they give a setting a weirdly artificial feel.

Actualy the generational one is probably one that I would drop all together. While the four types of generational phsycology are potentialy useful it might be better to tie them into specific events i.e. wars or economic disruptions rather than assuming a neat independent progression.

Yes, this is definitely an important thing to keep in mind. The ideal is to produce timelines from which the cycles used can't be identified but being unnoticed without specific analysis is also acceptable.

Possibly the generational cycle could be triggered by events and then proceed until another triggering event occurs to avoid generational-event mismatch and add complexity. Of course contradictory cycles can be useful for idea generation too.

[Frost]

Originally Posted by Sindri

Possibly the generational cycle could be triggered by events and then proceed until another triggering event occurs to avoid generational-event mismatch and add complexity. Of course contradictory cycles can be useful for idea generation too.

It could work at that, however I would still be sceptical about any sort of neat consistent progression along the cycle. It has proved an embarasing failure at explaining real history for exactly this reason with at least one example of a missing generation even in Strauss and Howe's own work. Repeated/ missing generations probably make for a more interesting history than trying to handwave contradictions.

It might also be fun to consider wheher this model actualy follows national or international trends, if it follows national trends how are states with differing cultures going to interact?

[Sindri]

Originally Posted by Frost

It could work at that, however I would still be sceptical about any sort of neat consistent progression along the cycle. It has proved an embarasing failure at explaining real history for exactly this reason with at least one example of a missing generation even in Strauss and Howe's own work. Repeated/ missing generations probably make for a more interesting history than trying to handwave contradictions.

The advantage of event triggered generations is that on a regular basis the cycle would be interrupted instead of continuing on indefinitely.

The usefulness of contradictions lies in coming up with explanations instead of handwaves. It still shouldn't happen too often or the model needs adjusting and it's better to throw out a contradicting element than use a handwave.

Originally Posted by Frost

It might also be fun to consider wheher this model actualy follows national or international trends, if it follows national trends how are states with differing cultures going to interact?

Yeah that's something I've been concerned with. Some of the cycles appear to be fairly generic but others, especially as you get smaller in scale, seem more culturally based. TL also can be a trend modifier. Where there are different versions for a given subject you can pick and choose but there hasn't been as much work on formal historical cycles as I would prefer.

[Frost]

Originally Posted by Sindri

Yeah that's something I've been concerned with. Some of the cycles appear to be fairly generic but others, especially as you get smaller in scale, seem more culturally based. TL also can be a trend modifier. Where there are different versions for a given subject you can pick and choose but there hasn't been as much work on formal historical cycles as I would prefer.

I started thinking this about the generational cycle specificaly because Strauss and Howe's work seems to be tied almost exclusively to the US it seems difficult to align their model of the last 70 odd years with even that of Britain let alone say Germany.

Having said that I think that only the rules of thumb for Great Power conflicts and price revolutions are genuinely reagional or global in character.

[Johnny1A.2]

Originally Posted by Frost

I started thinking this about the generational cycle specificaly because Strauss and Howe's work seems to be tied almost exclusively to the US it seems difficult to align their model of the last 70 odd years with even that of Britain let alone say Germany.

That's inherent to the theory, as Strauss and Howe noted at one point. They think the cyclic tendency runs through most cultures, but it becomes really noticeable in the USA and the modern West because it's now free to express itself, without being obscured/overriden by hereditary, religious, and other factors that used to conceal it or sometimes swamp it.

It gets confusing because huge wars don't define the Crisis period, they are just more likely during the Crisis period. The marker of a Crisis war is not that it's big or bloody, but the mindset with which its waged, total mobilization, ruthless pursuit of an often abstract goal, actions that would have been socially unthinkable just a short period before suddenly made into the central organizing theme of society. Tolerance decreases, internally and externally, and the 'losers' face hard choices if they're lucky.

[Johnny1A.2]

Originally Posted by Frost

I started thinking this about the generational cycle specificaly because Strauss and Howe's work seems to be tied almost exclusively to the US it seems difficult to align their model of the last 70 odd years with even that of Britain let alone say Germany.

Having said that I think that only the rules of thumb for Great Power conflicts and price revolutions are genuinely reagional or global in character.

It can broadly be done. For ex, the social upheaval of the 60s is, in the S&H model, just as diagnostic as the warfare of the 40s. Consider that the social changes and emerging social conflicts that came in with the late 60s/early 70s were visible in America, Britain, France, and elsewhere all at approximately the same time. The practical effects were different in different places, but the upheaval was roughly synchronous.

[Johnny1A.2]

Originally Posted by Sindri

So I've been looking for whatever long term cycles people have suggested exist for use in modeling history and producing timelines. Infinite World's Development section of History, Already in Progress starting on pg. 99 has been quite useful but I thought I'd ask if any one knows of specific cycles or trends not mentioned there or has thoughts on using stuff like this for their world's history while I'm reading through the literature.

Strauss and Howe's cycle can be useful for gaming purposes, but it's operation is relatively short-term (the course of a long mortal lifetime sees it run through all four stages).

The metahistorical theories of people like Oswald Spengler can be used to inspire gaming scenarios, especially where you have an old, declining culture lined up next to a younger one, or if you want a setting where the players are struggling against the declining trend (along the lines, say, of Anderson's Dominic Flandry stories).

[Sindri]

Originally Posted by Johnny1A.2

Strauss and Howe's cycle can be useful for gaming purposes, but it's operation is relatively short-term (the course of a long mortal lifetime sees it run through all four stages).

Yeah, I'm not uninterested in shorter term cycles but they tend to be more culturally specific and difficult to disguise. Even if I don't end up using Strauss and Howe's cycle to generate history I might well decide to interpret specific important generations afterwards with it.

Originally Posted by Johnny1A.2

The metahistorical theories of people like Oswald Spengler can be used to inspire gaming scenarios, especially where you have an old, declining culture lined up next to a younger one, or if you want a setting where the players are struggling against the declining trend (along the lines, say, of Anderson's Dominic Flandry stories).

Yeah Spengler is definitely useful.