Modelling History Through Cycles

[Sindri]

So I've been looking for whatever long term cycles people have suggested exist for use in modeling history and producing timelines. Infinite World's Development section of History, Already in Progress starting on pg. 99 has been quite useful but I thought I'd ask if any one knows of specific cycles or trends not mentioned there or has thoughts on using stuff like this for their world's history while I'm reading through the literature.

[Frost]

Originally Posted by Sindri

So I've been looking for whatever long term cycles people have suggested exist for use in modeling history and producing timelines... or has thoughts on using stuff like this for their world's history while I'm reading through the literature.

I think that the big one is not to employ them too rigidly having played arround with a few of them, particularly the generational cycle that they give a setting a weirdly artificial feel.

Actualy the generational one is probably one that I would drop all together. While the four types of generational phsycology are potentialy useful it might be better to tie them into specific events i.e. wars or economic disruptions rather than assuming a neat independent progression.

[Sindri]

Originally Posted by Frost

I think that the big one is not to employ them too rigidly having played arround with a few of them, particularly the generational cycle that they give a setting a weirdly artificial feel.

Actualy the generational one is probably one that I would drop all together. While the four types of generational phsycology are potentialy useful it might be better to tie them into specific events i.e. wars or economic disruptions rather than assuming a neat independent progression.

Yes, this is definitely an important thing to keep in mind. The ideal is to produce timelines from which the cycles used can't be identified but being unnoticed without specific analysis is also acceptable.

Possibly the generational cycle could be triggered by events and then proceed until another triggering event occurs to avoid generational-event mismatch and add complexity. Of course contradictory cycles can be useful for idea generation too.

[Frost]

Originally Posted by Sindri

Possibly the generational cycle could be triggered by events and then proceed until another triggering event occurs to avoid generational-event mismatch and add complexity. Of course contradictory cycles can be useful for idea generation too.

It could work at that, however I would still be sceptical about any sort of neat consistent progression along the cycle. It has proved an embarasing failure at explaining real history for exactly this reason with at least one example of a missing generation even in Strauss and Howe's own work. Repeated/ missing generations probably make for a more interesting history than trying to handwave contradictions.

It might also be fun to consider wheher this model actualy follows national or international trends, if it follows national trends how are states with differing cultures going to interact?

[Sindri]

Originally Posted by Frost

It could work at that, however I would still be sceptical about any sort of neat consistent progression along the cycle. It has proved an embarasing failure at explaining real history for exactly this reason with at least one example of a missing generation even in Strauss and Howe's own work. Repeated/ missing generations probably make for a more interesting history than trying to handwave contradictions.

The advantage of event triggered generations is that on a regular basis the cycle would be interrupted instead of continuing on indefinitely.

The usefulness of contradictions lies in coming up with explanations instead of handwaves. It still shouldn't happen too often or the model needs adjusting and it's better to throw out a contradicting element than use a handwave.

Originally Posted by Frost

It might also be fun to consider wheher this model actualy follows national or international trends, if it follows national trends how are states with differing cultures going to interact?

Yeah that's something I've been concerned with. Some of the cycles appear to be fairly generic but others, especially as you get smaller in scale, seem more culturally based. TL also can be a trend modifier. Where there are different versions for a given subject you can pick and choose but there hasn't been as much work on formal historical cycles as I would prefer.

[Frost]

Originally Posted by Sindri

Yeah that's something I've been concerned with. Some of the cycles appear to be fairly generic but others, especially as you get smaller in scale, seem more culturally based. TL also can be a trend modifier. Where there are different versions for a given subject you can pick and choose but there hasn't been as much work on formal historical cycles as I would prefer.

I started thinking this about the generational cycle specificaly because Strauss and Howe's work seems to be tied almost exclusively to the US it seems difficult to align their model of the last 70 odd years with even that of Britain let alone say Germany.

Having said that I think that only the rules of thumb for Great Power conflicts and price revolutions are genuinely reagional or global in character.

[Johnny1A.2]

Originally Posted by Sindri

So I've been looking for whatever long term cycles people have suggested exist for use in modeling history and producing timelines. Infinite World's Development section of History, Already in Progress starting on pg. 99 has been quite useful but I thought I'd ask if any one knows of specific cycles or trends not mentioned there or has thoughts on using stuff like this for their world's history while I'm reading through the literature.

Strauss and Howe's cycle can be useful for gaming purposes, but it's operation is relatively short-term (the course of a long mortal lifetime sees it run through all four stages).

The metahistorical theories of people like Oswald Spengler can be used to inspire gaming scenarios, especially where you have an old, declining culture lined up next to a younger one, or if you want a setting where the players are struggling against the declining trend (along the lines, say, of Anderson's Dominic Flandry stories).

[Sindri]

Originally Posted by Johnny1A.2

Strauss and Howe's cycle can be useful for gaming purposes, but it's operation is relatively short-term (the course of a long mortal lifetime sees it run through all four stages).

Yeah, I'm not uninterested in shorter term cycles but they tend to be more culturally specific and difficult to disguise. Even if I don't end up using Strauss and Howe's cycle to generate history I might well decide to interpret specific important generations afterwards with it.

Originally Posted by Johnny1A.2

The metahistorical theories of people like Oswald Spengler can be used to inspire gaming scenarios, especially where you have an old, declining culture lined up next to a younger one, or if you want a setting where the players are struggling against the declining trend (along the lines, say, of Anderson's Dominic Flandry stories).

Yeah Spengler is definitely useful.

[Johnny1A.2]

Strauss and Howe's theory can be useful for 'sudden background change'. The theory assumes two kinds of 'social moment' that arise alternately every other generation (assuming nothing masks/derails the cycle, which they recognize can happen). They call those social moments the awakening and the crisis, and they come roughly 'half a long lifetime' apart.

(S&H call the Great Depression/World War II period a Crisis, and the social upheavels of the 1970s an Awakening. They predict another Crisis around 2010-2025. They see the 1890s as an Awakening, and the U.S. Civil War and the unsettled years prior to it as a Crisis period.)

What marks both kinds of 'social moment' is that the social mood changes very suddenly, especially in the Crisis. What was unthinkable can suddenly become mandatory, and vice versa. This may or may not be reflected in changes to the laws and government, but it's backed by serious social power either way. Some formerly accepted points of view and ideas suddenly become socially unacceptable, to the point that it can be socially, legally, financially, or physically dangerous to espouse them.

Likewise, actions and attitudes formerlly marginal or 'just one of many' can and do suddenly become effectively mandatory, to the point that it can be socially, legally, financially, or physically dangerous to dissent from them.

This can be useful for a GM who wants to suddenly change his player group from outlaws to heroes in the eyes of the public, or turn formerly accepted players into outcasts, by no action of their own.

[Joe]

It might be worth noting that academic historians don't really consider Strauss and Howe very serious thinkers, at least if my understanding is correct. I could be wrong. In any case this probably doesn't matter at all for gaming purposes.

One thing that serious academic historians do still debate, and that also might be quite useful for gaming purposes, is the Marxist conception of history: history being structured into large-scale phases determined by changes in the basic mode of material production.

(I know you're interested in cycles, rather than phases, of history; but I thought I'd mention this anyways. Apologies if it's irrelevant or else too obvious).

Regardless of what one thinks of it as a way of conceptualizing real history, the marxist model of history opens up some great opportunities for alternate-history gaming plots. What if it's true that the large-scale development of human societies basically depends, not on cultural factors or technological developments, per se, but on the way the underlying economic system develops? (I.e. what if a very rough version of the marxist idea of the 'base' determining the 'superstructure' is true?)

One example of a game-interesting thing that might follow from this, if it's true: if a meme-engineer goes back to to the 12th Century and tries to spread, say,'democratic' values, then, at least according to a simple version of the marxist idea, the values simply won't spread to any great effect, or they'll just be morphed into other values that aren't inimical to feudalism: to change society's values, you need to change the basic mode of production, i.e. seriously disrupt feudalism as an economic system.

Similarly, at least in a really simple reading of the marxist model, any basically agrarian society, in which a small elite class rules over a large agricultural laborer class, is going to end up being a very religious society, since religion seems to be, among other things, a crucial means of controlling agrarian populations.

More examples abound.

I'm definitely, definitely not trying to start a flame war about marxism, religion, or whatnot! I've got no investment in the truth or otherwise of this kind of theory of history.

I'm just saying that the idea that at a large enough time scale all societies will have their cultural 'superstructure' determined by the nature of their economic 'base' (feudalism, capitalism, whatever) is great fodder for alternative history gaming!

Apologies for the super-long post! Got carried away...