TL 9 prototypes

[Varyon]

Originally Posted by sir_pudding

The USAF just retired their chemical laser weapon. The systems being deployed now by e.g. Isreal aren't chemical lasers.

Interestingly, IIRC Ultra Tech had chemical laser weapons at TL 9 and solid-state at TL 10+; it sounds like the former never really made it past the prototype stage before being abandoned in favor of the latter, so if they work out, that's certainly a divergence from what UT predicted (not so much them being abandoned in favor of solid-state, but it happening so early, relatively speaking). Does anybody recall what the blinding lasers* China announced some time ago were?

*I think they claimed it was meant to be used as a more traditional weapon to put holes in people, but the general consensus was that it was a blinding laser.

[sir_pudding]

Originally Posted by Varyon

Interestingly, IIRC Ultra Tech had chemical laser weapons at TL 9 and solid-state at TL 10+; it sounds like the former never really made it past the prototype stage before being abandoned in favor of the latter, so if they work out, that's certainly a divergence from what UT predicted (not so much them being abandoned in favor of solid-state, but it happening so early, relatively speaking).

Yes, thats why I mentioned it. By this standard we already passed through TL9. Really this is a consequence of chemical laser systems being in the news when David was writing it.

Does anybody recall what the blinding lasers* China announced some time ago were?

*I think they claimed it was meant to be used as a more traditional weapon to put holes in people, but the general consensus was that it was a blinding laser.

I know their laser armed J-20 fighter apparently can't fly and fire the laser at the same time, which seems to be a problem.

[KarlKost]

Life imitates Gurps.

So exciting to be living on the edge of a new TL!

The bad news will be having to convert such a huge chunk of Ultra Tech to High Tech book... And getting used with all the conversions for starting wealth and others bah! So much work for a GM!

[Pursuivant]

Originally Posted by Fred Brackin

Human genetic engineering would very much still be R&D. It just barely exists in any form.

There are a number of experimental mRNA vaccines which can target and alter specific genes. They show a great deal of promise for treating cancers and other ailments which can be linked to a single defective gene.

I'd call that prototype level late TL8/early TL9 human genetic engineering.

[Pursuivant]

Originally Posted by Tom Mazanec

So basically we seem to be following the Fast as opposed to Accelerated Technological Progression? Or even just Medium? (p8 Ultra-Tech)

I'm a skeptic and a pessimist. I'd say that we're living in a Retarded Safetech world, and that we won't get to TL9 until at least 2050. The biggest limitations are power generation, which in turn retards transport technology. I'll get back to you as soon as I get my AI-controlled flying car.

[Tom Mazanec]

Originally Posted by Pursuivant

There are a number of experimental mRNA vaccines which can target and alter specific genes. They show a great deal of promise for treating cancers and other ailments which can be linked to a single defective gene.

I'd call that prototype level late TL8/early TL9 human genetic engineering.

Wasn't there a Chinese gengineering of a pair of twins to be resistant to aids? Or was that tabloid?

[Varyon]

Originally Posted by sir_pudding

I know their laser armed J-20 fighter apparently can't fly and fire the laser at the same time, which seems to be a problem.

I was referring to the rifle-sized system they announced some time ago, although it looks like there was ultimately very little information.

But this is honestly both hilarious and an interesting idea for a fighter in a game - it has a high energy laser weapon, but it basically turns into an unpowered glider while the weapon is active.

[Fred Brackin]

Originally Posted by Pursuivant

I'd call that prototype level late TL8/early TL9 human genetic engineering.

Yes, that's nice but where are the genetically ugraded kids? TL9 Genetic Engineeriing means +2 ST, +1 DX, +1 IQ and +1 HT.

[KarlKost]

Originally Posted by Fred Brackin

Yes, that's nice but where are the genetically ugraded kids? TL9 Genetic Engineeriing means +2 ST, +1 DX, +1 IQ and +1 HT.

Human genetic researched is being purposely supressed due to ethical reasons. If there was a desire to, it actually wouldnt be that hard to accomplish. Just look at the kinds of manipulation done in animals and plants, mostly for the food industry. The technology already exists, it just needs the will to implement it.

[weby]

Originally Posted by Willy

End of TL 8 rapidly approaching TL 9 I would say, in some parts we have now TL 9 technology in others we are well behind. It´s the genral problem to make a educated guess about the future. The far future is just Sci Fi, but near future / TL is another matter and GURPS be it 3rd or 4th Ed makes a far better job in it than some future schientists I could name.

I would say that we do not really have any tech at fully TL 9 level, but many things are getting very close, with prototypes and demonstration types existing.

Originally Posted by Gold & Appel Inc

+1. I place us at late TL8 now, with a lot of early TL9 toys that will seem quaintly dysfunctional and inconvenient in 20 more years (Remember early cellphones?) available to those with the appropriate pocket size. The specifics may vary because this is all speculation, but the GURPS publications have been accurate enough for jazz; you can adjust it in your own game anyway.

Except that the pace of of change in many fields has actually increased by a faster rate over time. Thus the 20 year mark is not really likely. Basically 20 year mark is based on a linear growth, but it is more likely a exponential curve. Well, more properly, like any tech it is an S curve, but the takeoff part is exponential.

Originally Posted by Fred Brackin

We can't be on the tech path that has use reach TL9 in 2020. We're probably not on the path that has it happen in 2025 (2.5 years from now). 2030 is a better probablitity just becase it's farther away. Farther away than 2030 might be more likely than that.

Remember that not all technologies of a TL are available at the start of the TL. Like take TL6 as good example: it started in 1880, but many of the technologies came into wide use much later, some of them in very late TL6 like: Radar, Aircraft carrier and primitive helicopter.

The proper change is when several of the technologies are in use.

Originally Posted by Pursuivant

I'm a skeptic and a pessimist. I'd say that we're living in a Retarded Safetech world, and that we won't get to TL9 until at least 2050. The biggest limitations are power generation, which in turn retards transport technology. I'll get back to you as soon as I get my AI-controlled flying car.

Actually Power generation is one of the weird things, there is a huge shift going on at increasing speed. A good idea of how many European countries are changing the production can be found in the charts of Germany on: https://www.cleanenergywire.org/fact...wer-mix-charts

Specially chart two and three there.

As for flying cars.. they are actually a problematic tech with the noise you will generate any time you displace large volumes of air at high speeds like you need for such.

Thus the dozens of startups touting "drone flying cars" seem quite questionable at best.

Originally Posted by KarlKost

Human genetic researched is being purposely supressed due to ethical reasons. If there was a desire to, it actually wouldnt be that hard to accomplish. Just look at the kinds of manipulation done in animals and plants, mostly for the food industry. The technology already exists, it just needs the will to implement it.

Indeed. This seems to be the main case, though there is a lot of money spent on some sub fields like trying to slow down aging...

And a general comment on the projected TL 9: some of the technologies listed there are not really likely to be that way due to different tech development than guessed in 2006.