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10-24-2013, 10:21 AM   #41
Anthony

Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Berkeley, CA
Re: Gambling in 2100?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Fred Brackin With a VII you don't need to "count cards" You can simply record every card displayed and run actual probability simulations.
That's still card counting. It's just an extremely detailed version.

I'm not sure how many cards need to come out of a deck before it's usefully predictable, though. If you shuffle often enough card counting doesn't help.
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 10-24-2013, 11:50 AM #42 Keiko Banned   Join Date: Jan 2013 Re: Gambling in 2100? How could you change games like Blackjack and Roulette to render techniques like card counting less reliable without making them essentially different games?
10-24-2013, 12:15 PM   #43
Anthony

Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Berkeley, CA
Re: Gambling in 2100?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Keiko How could you change games like Blackjack and Roulette to render techniques like card counting less reliable without making them essentially different games?
For blackjack, the rules can be tweaked to simply adjust the house edge by more than you can possibly get back via card counting (I think a 1:1 edge on blackjack payout will make card counting non-viable). For roulette, the problem is that the roulette wheel is a mechanical object with fairly basic physics, and there's really nothing you can to do make it more random that won't visibly alter the behavior of the ball.
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10-24-2013, 12:16 PM   #44
Fred Brackin

Join Date: Aug 2007
Re: Gambling in 2100?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Keiko How could you change games like Blackjack and Roulette to render techniques like card counting less reliable without making them essentially different games?
Roulette you only need to do honestly with a few tweaks about betting and launching the ball.

Blackjack is all about probability though ("Will one or more cards I might take improve my position v. that of the house and/or other players?"). I do not think it can be made proof against computerized probability calculations without massive alterations. Such changes could force changes with the "House stands on 17" rule or whatever it is.

Nah, it's just going to be simpler to keep fleecing the compulsive gamblers and kicking out people ho win too much.
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10-24-2013, 12:30 PM   #45
Anthony

Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Berkeley, CA
Re: Gambling in 2100?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Fred Brackin Roulette you only need to do honestly with a few tweaks about betting and launching the ball.
If by 'tweaks about betting' you mean 'betting before the ball is launched', sure. Otherwise, you can get accuracy enough to beat the house edge by trying to predict trajectory after the ball has been launched, that's a level of processing that can be done in wetware, let alone using software.
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10-24-2013, 07:16 PM   #46
Flyndaran
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Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Forest Grove, Beaverton, Oregon
Re: Gambling in 2100?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Anthony If by 'tweaks about betting' you mean 'betting before the ball is launched', sure. Otherwise, you can get accuracy enough to beat the house edge by trying to predict trajectory after the ball has been launched, that's a level of processing that can be done in wetware, let alone using software.
That assumes a predictable human thrower. If you have a randomly generated degree of force between throws, I have difficulty seeing how one could effectively predict the final number group.

That would still leave cheaters the option of sneaking in an on-the-surface random force generator program such gives them an edge for specific throws.

I remember someone implanting such a program into slot machines that pay out big but only after a careful sequence of bets and pulls.
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10-24-2013, 07:51 PM   #47
Anthony

Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Berkeley, CA
Re: Gambling in 2100?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Flyndaran That assumes a predictable human thrower.
No it doesn't. You can determine after the throw what the ball is doing, at which point the behavior of the thrower no longer matters.
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 10-25-2013, 07:04 AM #48 jeff_wilson Computer Scientist     Join Date: Aug 2004 Location: Dallas, Texas Re: Gambling in 2100? Yes, the ball goes around at a predictable rate, much like this thread.... __________________ . Reposed playtest leader. The Campaigns of William Stoddard
10-25-2013, 03:32 PM   #49
Flyndaran
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Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Forest Grove, Beaverton, Oregon
Re: Gambling in 2100?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Anthony No it doesn't. You can determine after the throw what the ball is doing, at which point the behavior of the thrower no longer matters.
I have trouble how you could get accurate enough readings on the ball's movement without lasers. But I assumed that the simple fix of not allowing bets during play would become the norm. I don't get why it hasn't always been so, really.
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10-25-2013, 03:43 PM   #50
Anthony

Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Berkeley, CA
Re: Gambling in 2100?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Flyndaran I have trouble how you could get accurate enough readings on the ball's movement without lasers.
Just time how long it takes to pass one point twice. It simply doesn't take that much information to make roulette net positive.
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