New Reality Seeds

[Astromancer]

Originally Posted by AlexanderHowl

I do not think that 1910 Germany had the scientific understanding to even imagine the requirements of sending a satellite into orbit. They also had neither the technological expertise nor the economy to do the required research and development in just eight years. The USA was only able to do it because the Nazis had already done the basic research in rocketry, we had over thirty years of aeronautics research from NACA (starting in 1915), we were already early TL7, and our economy in the early 1950s was something like 6x as large as the German Empire's in 1910 (it was already twice as large as the German Empire's in 1910). In addition, staging is a TL7 technology.

Jules Verne understood the requirements decades earlier. Germany was brilliant at research in this period. And Goddard was advanced to the point NASA kept slamming into his parents into the mid-1960s. Also, stagging rockets is medieval Chinese tech. Focus is the missing sauce.

[fchase8]

Happy Page 500 of this awesome thread!

[AlexanderHowl]

Crude solid propellant staging is ancient Chinese, it is relatively easy because the stages are made from paper and burn up. When you are talking about staging metallic rockets, you are talking about a whole different dimension of difficulty, as you need dozens of perfectly timed explosive bolts to separate the stages when they are exhausted. As for Jules Verne, he only had knowledge of powder rockets, so he did not understand the issues surrounding the difficulties of sending a satellite into orbit. Now, Jules Verne did inspire Tsiolkovsky, who figured out solutions to many of the issues surrounding rocketry.

Now Tsiolkovsky is an interesting fellow. He did publish on the first theoretical multistage rocket design in 1903, though it would have likely been impossible to develop at that time due to technological limitations. Had Tsiolkovsky's genius been properly recognized at that time though, and had he been given funding equal to 1% of the US GDP at the time, he might have been able to come up with a primitive rocket that could have reached orbit by the middle 1910s.

For example, if Bryan had won the 1900 election instead of McKinley, it is possible that he could have been convinced to support progress in science and engineering since he was an opponent of American imperialism. In that case, luring Tsiolkovsky from Russia by 1904 may have been possible, as the idea of placing orbital weather stations, where men could have sent radio reports of the weather, as well as developing photos of the weather systems, to the surface of the Earth. Such practicality may have appealed to the populist sentiments of Bryan and, while expensive, the fever of technological progress was filling America at the time. If Bryan won reelection in 1904, he would have been free to push for funding Tsiolkovsky, perhaps allowing for the first manned space flights by 1914.

Of course, Tsiolkovsky would have faced many of the problems of that the researchers of the German Empire would have faced, but he would have had the advantage of more funding since Bryan would have rather spent money on the advancement of science for the betterment of the people than to have spent money on increasing the size of the US military for the purpose of imperialism. With sufficient funding, Tsiolkovsky may have been able to push America to TL7 rocketry. As for Goddard, he would have likely been hired by Tsiolkovsky in this timeline and, given the basics developed by Tsiolkovsky, would have improved upon them greatly.

Since American imperialism would have been replaced by a push into space (being first into space would have likely been seen as a natural progression from being first in heavier than air flight in 1904), the USA would have not been involved in World War I. While the Europeans were slaughtering each other, the USA would have been celebrating the first man in space in 1914. By 1918, when World War I would have resulted in a draw, the USA could have established a small orbital platform for weather reports and may have been marketing similar platforms to other nations.

[Daigoro]

Originally Posted by Astromancer

And Goddard was advanced to the point NASA kept slamming into his parents into the mid-1960s.

I hope you meant "patents" there.

[Astromancer]

Originally Posted by Daigoro

I hope you meant "patents" there.

The autocorrect gives me strange gifts.

[Mysterious Dark Lord v3.2]

Originally Posted by AlexanderHowl

I do not think that 1910 Germany had the scientific understanding to even imagine the requirements of sending a satellite into orbit. They also had neither the technological expertise nor the economy to do the required research and development in just eight years. The USA was only able to do it because the Nazis had already done the basic research in rocketry, we had over thirty years of aeronautics research from NACA (starting in 1915), we were already early TL7, and our economy in the early 1950s was something like 6x as large as the German Empire's in 1910 (it was already twice as large as the German Empire's in 1910). In addition, staging is a TL7 technology.

Economy? Maybe. Scientific understanding? Debatable ...

Konstantin Tsiolkovsky published Investigations of Outer Space by Rocket Devices in 1911 and Aims of Astronauts in 1914. The Tsiolkovsky formula is one of the basic mathematics of space travel.

With space travel being more mainstream, Tsoilkovsky might be inspired to develop his work earlier. And if he got enough incentive, he might be inspired to leave Russia and offer his services to Germany. Or a German spy could steal his work.

The scientific understanding is there in the time period. Many of the great minds of rocketry were extant. With national-level funding and popular support, anything might be possible

[Prince Charon]

Originally Posted by Mysterious Dark Lord v3.2

Economy? Maybe. Scientific understanding? Debatable ...

Konstantin Tsiolkovsky published Investigations of Outer Space by Rocket Devices in 1911 and Aims of Astronauts in 1914. The Tsiolkovsky formula is one of the basic mathematics of space travel.

With space travel being more mainstream, Tsoilkovsky might be inspired to develop his work earlier. And if he got enough incentive, he might be inspired to leave Russia and offer his services to Germany. Or a German spy could steal his work.

The scientific understanding is there in the time period. Many of the great minds of rocketry were extant. With national-level funding and popular support, anything might be possible

For Russia specifically, the lack of WWI (or a rather alternate one as in AlexanderHowl's version) may butterfly away the Russian Revolution entirely, or significantly change it, so Tsiolkovsky would have less reason to leave Russia (especially if he's getting government patronage, whomever the government is by the time he's noticed). His work being copied by spies is still pretty likely, though.

In the 'no WWI at all' version, the Space Race is rather more interesting, IMHO, due to having more participants. Who actually gets to the Moon first is another matter, of course. The German Empire is a little ahead due to aiming for it earlier, but the other Great Powers are certainly not going to let themselves be left behind. I sort of wonder if the existing alliances are likely to pool their resources, or if it's every nation for themselves.

[Astromancer]

Originally Posted by Prince Charon

For Russia specifically, the lack of WWI (or a rather alternate one as in AlexanderHowl's version) may butterfly away the Russian Revolution entirely, or significantly change it, so Tsiolkovsky would have less reason to leave Russia (especially if he's getting government patronage, whomever the government is by the time he's noticed). His work being copied by spies is still pretty likely, though.

In the 'no WWI at all' version, the Space Race is rather more interesting, IMHO, due to having more participants. Who actually gets to the Moon first is another matter, of course. The German Empire is a little ahead due to aiming for it earlier, but the other Great Powers are certainly not going to let themselves be left behind. I sort of wonder if the existing alliances are likely to pool their resources, or if it's every nation for themselves.

The Russian Revolution came when it did because the Tsarist State couldn't maintain the war effort and maintain a viable economy. Additionally, the social and economic life of the peasants, although getting better over the century before the revolution, was getting better so slowly that improvements only made life more fustraiting. So yes, getting rid of WWI might extend the life of the Tsarist state, but it was blowing up eventually.

I agree that a Space Race with more players is more fun/lively.

[AlexanderHowl]

I do not really see how this situation would prevent WWI. If the blast had occurred in a more settled region, it might have destroyed a city, but it would have had to have destroyed a capital to have any impact on WWI. For example, had it destroyed Berlin, it would have likely killed Wilhelm II and most of his family.

In that scenario, I could see the newly crowned Wilhelm III being quite eager to fund scientific development to prevent future tragedies. If the British and Russian governments (both of whose rulers were relatives of Wilhelm III) donated to the rebuilding of Berlin, then it could have improved relations between the nations to the point that WWI could have been avoided. Of course, war would have eventually occurred, just not WWI.

[Prince Charon]

Originally Posted by AlexanderHowl

I do not really see how this situation would prevent WWI. If the blast had occurred in a more settled region, it might have destroyed a city, but it would have had to have destroyed a capital to have any impact on WWI. For example, had it destroyed Berlin, it would have likely killed Wilhelm II and most of his family.

The butterfly effect, plus luck. The impact got Willy 2's attention, which lead to interest in rocketry, and then the idea of a German walking on the Moon got his ambition. Kaiser Bill was not the only cause (or even the main cause) of WWI, of course, but many of the other factors would be altered. Luck also plays a role, of course. Anyone looking at our own history from outside would likely see a number of things that they would not consider plausible, because weird luck plays a role there, too. Gavrilo Princip only managed to kill the Archduke by sheer dumb luck (which is one of the events butterflied by the change), and that's only one of many examples of reality being bizarre.

So, in this one, while there may be smaller wars, and colonial proxy wars, Europe just manages to avoid having a general European war, and thus, this Earth never quite has a WWI.