06-22-2022, 01:56 PM | #21 | |
Join Date: Oct 2007
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Re: TL 9 prototypes
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Otherwise thousands of bozos and drunks who can hardly manage 2D driving on marked roads will be crashing and colliding, or A 99.9999% perfect flying car will crash and kill a child and the news sites will be cluttered with "FLYING CAR KILLS 10-YEAR OLD CHILD" and demands that Congress "DO SOMETHING!". |
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06-22-2022, 02:16 PM | #22 | |
Join Date: Dec 2020
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Re: TL 9 prototypes
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I guess we have to wait a long time for this, just the needed extra power and weight for this systems would easily double the load, which leads to stronger engines and fans which leads to .... . Given that the battery is now the biggest solo weight, and that actual multi fans are just playthings who can carry 1! adult alone, it will take a lot of time. Due to high costs low useful civillian use it will be a niche market. Once we get a lightweight solid state battery everything goes. The military use of low flying quick transport possible armed with loitering ammo / AT missiles, or a machingun / grenade launcher would be tremendous. Because all known air defense systems including anti drone weapons need a line of sight to detect you,this systems are all useless, if you can fly with say 100 miles/h able to touch the ground with your hand. It wouldnīt replace attack helicopters due to low self protection and high casualitys, but for quick strikes in wooded areas doted with hills you have the surprise on your side and are back before the emeny can react. On the other hand the pilot can fly such systems via remote control or you make the attack versions fully automated, which is the way actual research goes. |
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07-01-2022, 12:13 PM | #23 | |
Join Date: Oct 2008
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Re: TL 9 prototypes
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Today there are already traffic control systems in testing for drones, so that would not be out of place. |
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07-03-2022, 02:17 AM | #24 | ||
Join Date: Feb 2007
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Re: TL 9 prototypes
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You're dead on that energy is the key technology, the one that underpins just about everything else (materials science might be the #2). The key to the fast advancements in our grandparents' time was partly the revolutionary improvement in power supply. The electric grid, the internal combustion engine, the jet turbine, the nuclear bomb/reactor, high end rocketry, they all involved tremendous increases in the amount and density of available energy. That's what permitted people who spent months traveling westward on wagon trains in their youth to make the same trip in late life in hours. Think I'm kidding? The time from the 1880s/90s, when wagon trains were a major method of travel from the eastern States to the west coast, to the period of the 1930s when cross-continent air travel became a serious thing was the same time period as from 1972 to today. No longer. A 20 year old who travelled west on a wagon train to settle in California in 1885, needing a good part of a year to do it, could fly from California back to his home town at 70. A teenager who fought in the Civil War could just conceivably have lived to see Hiroshima. That's a rate of change made possible by improvements in energy supply of revolutionary degree. Since the mid-20C energy density and supply has increased only marginally in comparison to the immediately previous lifespan, and as a result technological change has become more hype and less substance.
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07-03-2022, 02:18 AM | #25 | ||
Join Date: Feb 2007
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Re: TL 9 prototypes
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You're dead on that energy is the key technology, the one that underpins just about everything else (materials science might be the #2). The key to the fast advancements in our grandparents' time was partly the revolutionary improvement in power supply. The electric grid, the internal combustion engine, the jet turbine, the nuclear bomb/reactor, high end rocketry, they all involved tremendous increases in the amount and density of available energy. That's what permitted people who spent months traveling westward on wagon trains in their youth to make the same trip in late life in hours. Think I'm kidding? The time from the 1880s/90s, when wagon trains were a major method of travel from the eastern States to the west coast, to the period of the 1930s when cross-continent air travel became a serious thing was the same time period as from 1972 to today. No longer. A 20 year old who travelled west on a wagon train to settle in California in 1885, needing a good part of a year to do it, could fly from California back to his home town at 70. A teenager who fought in the Civil War could just conceivably have lived to see Hiroshima. That's a rate of change made possible by improvements in energy supply of revolutionary degree. Since the mid-20C energy density and supply has increased only marginally in comparison to the immediately previous lifespan, and as a result technological change has become more hype and less substance. It's all about energy.
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07-03-2022, 03:29 AM | #26 |
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Lawrence, KS
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Re: TL 9 prototypes
I don't agree with that. Certainly energy was the key to the technological revolutions from around 1700 to 1950, say. But information has been the key to many technological changes since 1900 and certainly since 1975 or so. Telecommunications, computers, artificial intelligence, molecular genetics, brain imaging, and simulation as a third scientific method (joining theory and experiment) all go beyond anything that was even imagined at the start of the twentieth century, and at least starting around 1960 they have been enjoying a phase of extraordinarily rapid increase in capabilities.
Energy technologies let us do things that the human body was incapable of; information technologies let us do things that the human mind is incapable of.
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Bill Stoddard I don't think we're in Oz any more. |
07-03-2022, 01:33 PM | #27 |
Join Date: Dec 2020
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Re: TL 9 prototypes
Nope, definitely no. Because if you look into the past and see where the industrial revoloution really starts, it goes nearly hand in hand with big medical progress, namely vaccination.
Small pox alone killed or incapacitated so many persons in the midst of their years there was always a lack of skilled workers, not to mention that taking care for crippled family members took a lot of resources. Many jobs needs years of study and learning especially jobs who bring the society forward, now that persons had a good chance to finish learning and more medics, scientists and engineers brought further progress. There were some studies about the effect, and all say it was a driver of industrial revolution. |
07-03-2022, 03:01 PM | #28 | |
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Oz
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Re: TL 9 prototypes
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Vaccination originated in China in 1549 or earlier, and was introduced into England in 1700 by people who had learned about it in India.
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Decay is inherent in all composite things. Nod head. Get treat. Last edited by Agemegos; 07-03-2022 at 03:07 PM. |
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07-03-2022, 04:12 PM | #29 | |
Join Date: Dec 2020
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Re: TL 9 prototypes
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The precursor of the coal was wood and thanks to felling all good trees to build ships, make charcoal or heat houses, there was a time when a saying said that judas would be spared because there was no tree to hang him in good old england. You can still see the deforestation in GB, and what follows in a lot of places nowadays. The people needed another fuel and the former despised coal took the place of wood. Needing as you wrote a complete hardware and the indutry which produced this all. Vaccination was clearly invented outside the western nations, but not popular in the west unless people like Lady Montagu made a example and researchers had breakthroughs in the years after ( around 1760 and later ). |
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07-03-2022, 06:09 PM | #30 | |
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Oz
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Re: TL 9 prototypes
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The progress of mechanisation consisted of substituting on one hand plant and equipment and on the other hand energy from streams and later coal for animal traction and human labour. You would expect that to be of most advantage and progress fastest where fuel and capital goods (ironwork, timber framing) were comparatively cheap and where labour was relatively expensive. Allen's vast researches into historical prices and wages show that it was indeed so: London had the highest wage costs and the coalfields of northern England the cheapest energy at the time. Allen even shows that industrialisation was attempted in France &c. at the time of the English water mills, and failed because it was unprofitable where wages were low and energy and capital goods were comparatively expensive. Newly-invented machines were economic only where the ratio of wages to energy costs &c. was highest; engineering refinements made the machines cheaper and more efficient, which gradually lowered the critical ratio of wages to energy prices and allowed industrialisation to spread. It took off first in places where coal was cheap and labour expensive (e.g. the Netherlands, the Rhineland) and then spread as technological progress made it profitable at ever-lower substitution ratios.
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Decay is inherent in all composite things. Nod head. Get treat. |
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