Reducing or removing randomness

[TheDS]

A search didn't turn up anything, but if someone knows if this topic is already covered, please let me know.

I understand that some people might think it's heresy to want to play Ogre without rolling dice to determine the outcome of a battle, but there are times when you want to know whether a particular strategy or scenario is worthwhile, and playing it 100,000,000 times with a close friend just to have a reasonable sample size is simply not an available option. What's needed in this situation is a way to quickly determine if the strategy or scenario is reasonably effective or balanced. And, of course, I know many people whose dice luck is, shall we say, VERY streaky, and would prefer a test of strategic ability that does not rely on pure luck.

So what I'm wondering is if anyone has been able to reduce or remove the randomness of the basic OGRE game, and if the game play and strategies largely remained the same so as to serve as an "average" game.

[HeatDeath]

A common technique to reduce the streakiness of die-rolling is to put 2-3 sets of chits, labeled 1-6, in a cup, and draw one randomly instead of rolling the die. When you've pulled all the chits, you put them back in the cup.

You need at least 2-3 sets so you won't consciously change your strategy after pulling all of the high numbers, but it limits streaks of really good or really bad rolls.

[The more naive solution, make everybody get "3" all the time, is a complete nonstarter - this renders everybody immune to 1-1 attacks - the most popular attack strength in the normal game.]

[wolf90]

Originally Posted by HeatDeath

A common technique to reduce the streakiness of die-rolling is to put 2-3 sets of chits, labeled 1-6, in a cup, and draw one randomly instead of rolling the die. When you've pulled all the chits, you put them back in the cup.

You need at least 2-3 sets so you won't consciously change your strategy after pulling all of the high numbers, but it limits streaks of really good or really bad rolls.

This.

You still have to play out the scenarios, but you will need far fewer to determine if there is a problem with the weighting of the game.

D.

[dwalend]

Originally Posted by HeatDeath

You need at least 2-3 sets so you won't consciously change your strategy after pulling all of the high numbers, but it limits streaks of really good or really bad rolls.

I usually use 6 sets for each side. Each side draws from its own cup.

You want each side to have its own cup to avoid "stealing" the better roles.

Six sets are enough to have small- and medium runs of luck, but not overwhelming luck. For the basic scenario, that's about enough to avoid returning chits to the pot.

The side that runs through the chits first usually wins. That lesson flows out to Ogre strategy, too, even with a die.

[Misplaced Buckeye]

Originally Posted by dwalend

I usually use 6 sets for each side. Each side draws from its own cup.

You want each side to have its own cup to avoid "stealing" the better roles.

Six sets are enough to have small- and medium runs of luck, but not overwhelming luck. For the basic scenario, that's about enough to avoid returning chits to the pot.

The side that runs through the chits first usually wins. That lesson flows out to Ogre strategy, too, even with a die.

This confuses me. Why don't you throw the chit back in the cup after each selection to maintain the same randomness?

[Netzilla]

Originally Posted by dwalend

The side that runs through the chits first usually wins. That lesson flows out to Ogre strategy, too, even with a die.

"He who rolls the most dice, wins."
-- unremembered author speaking of a completely different wargame

[Netzilla]

Originally Posted by Misplaced Buckeye

This confuses me. Why don't you throw the chit back in the cup after each selection to maintain the same randomness?

The goal is to reduce randomness.

[johndallman]

Originally Posted by Misplaced Buckeye

This confuses me. Why don't you throw the chit back in the cup after each selection to maintain the same randomness?

The idea isn't to emulate dice - or you'd just use dice - but to eliminate the runs of high or low numbers that pure randomness produces over the short term.

It's a method for ensuring, in effect, that the dice roll each possible number the same number of times during the game. So if you have six of each chit, and you don't throw them back, you're ensuring that you will get six ones, six twos, and so on, and you can't get the seventh of any number before you've had six of all the numbers, and put all the chits back in the cup.