First TL-9 items

[Prince Charon]

Some minor quibbles, but I think the-red-scare is on the right track:

Originally Posted by the-red-scare

Space Elevators: No way. I don’t even think they’d be TL9, but that’s what it says.

They might be TL9, but I think it depends on how materials science advances in the next decade or two.

Originally Posted by the-red-scare

Manned Interplanetary Spaceflight: Not yet.

Yeah. The parts are there, it's been at the stage of 'technically feasible if we put enough money into it' since maybe late TL7/the 1970s, but we're getting close, now. I'm optimistic about Elon Musk's ideas, just not as optimistic as he seems to be.

Originally Posted by the-red-scare

Electrolasers: No. I’m not sure these are ever going to be a thing.

Something close has been done in the lab, but I'm not sure they've actually tested tasers with it yet. I do think it's possible, just that it requires someone (or a bunch of people) with enough money to decide that it's a worthwhile investment. Probably not the sort of thing one does through Kickstarter, though.

Originally Posted by the-red-scare

Heavy Laser Weapons: No. we have heavy-as-in-massive laser weapons, but damage-wise they’re pathetic.

The potential is there, but so far it's been disappointing, yeah.

Originally Posted by the-red-scare

Battlesuits: No.

I'd rate that as 'not yet.' Enough work is being done in the area that we can say that the early stages have been accomplished.

Originally Posted by the-red-scare

Deuterium-Hydrogen Fusion: No. Assuming this means deuterium-tritium and commercial production.

I'd rate this as between 'no' and 'not yet,' really. Experiments are going well, just slowly (might do better with more money being applied, but the question is how much more).

Originally Posted by the-red-scare

Cybernetic Implants: No. there are implants and prosthetics, but none I’d describe as traditional cybernetics.

I think this may be a matter of definitions, as they look to me like early-TL9 technology.

Originally Posted by the-red-scare

The fact that so many of these are at the prototype stage means depending on how you want to draw the fuzzy line either very few TL9 technologies exist or half of them do.

Yeah.

[Inky]

I'm not sure that the ethics problems with the self-driving cars (though there may be other problems) and the lack of large-scale uses for virtual or augmented reality really stop them from counting. If the TL9 technology is there, it doesn't make it any less TL9 that nobody wants it.

[Dr. Beckenstein]

Just to add my 0.04 €:

- Keep in mind that it is a game, not a forecast of real life.

- The future is not what it used to be. My Gurps Ultra-Tech came out in 2007. That was 14 (fourteen) years ago. AFAIK, this was before Bitcoin, just for one example how technology can surprises us.

- And how do we classify the unbelievable speed at which the Covid-19 Vaccines have been developed? Mature TL 8 or early TL 9 biotech?

- For those it may concern, the source of all wisdom has a list of emerging technologies.

[Varyon]

Originally Posted by Ulzgoroth

It might be possible to fool the law into accepting that, but it would be a pretty bad argument. They've already tried the 'automatic drive but a human sits there to take over in emergencies' and what I've heard is that there's no sign that it's got any redeeming qualities. The 'driver' who has not been driving doesn't have appropriate reactions for being yanked from full disengagement to full emergency with no warning, (even compared to normal human emergency reaction standards) because how could they possibly be expected to?

From the way Opellulo described the situation, all we need is "to fool the law into accepting that." It's a literal no-win situation, wherein there is no action the vehicle can take that doesn't result in a potentially-deadly collision (or at least no way of determining it without precognition).

Of course, we would need better vehicular AI to get to the point where it won't make a mistake, but I was specifically referring to Opellulo's assertation that self-driving cars basically can't be a thing because of the Trolley Problem such could inevitably run into (to which there is no technological solution, because if there were an option that would avoid a collision, it wouldn't be a Trolley Problem).

Originally Posted by Dr. Beckenstein

And how do we classify the unbelievable speed at which the Covid-19 Vaccines have been developed? Mature TL 8 or early TL 9 biotech?

It was indeed fairly new technology that I wouldn't object to calling early TL 9 (note technology from a later TL can be available early, generally on an experimental basis), but from what I understand the rapidity of development and implementation had more to do with social aspects than technological ones. There was a huge push for such to be developed (resulting in basically every biotechnology company that could attempt it doing so, and putting a large amount of capital into it), liability was greatly reduced (basically, one can't sue the company making it - or the FDA for approving it, or an employer for mandating it - if issues crop up unless willful misconduct can be demonstrated), and the approval process was fast-tracked to avoid a lot of the bureaucratic red tape that normally delays things (there's literally an industry whose whole raison d'être is guiding companies through said red tape). I realize some of that has some political fallout associated with it, but let's please avoid that aspect - I'd rather not see this thread locked.

[Polydamas]

If there is ever a GURPS 5e, it will almost certainly define its date of publication as TL 9 and redefine the TL 7 / 8 / 9 boundaries in a way that makes sense then.

Originally Posted by Dr. Beckenstein

Just to add my 0.04 €:

- Keep in mind that it is a game, not a forecast of real life.

- The future is not what it used to be. My Gurps Ultra-Tech came out in 2007. That was 14 (fourteen) years ago. AFAIK, this was before Bitcoin, just for one example how technology can surprises us.

Digital currencies show up in '90s pop culture like Neal Stephenson's Cryptonomicon (already in his FAQ from April 1999. I don't know of any writer who imagined giant server farms in China with dedicated power plants or that these currencies would become basically a form of unlicensed gambling. "Anyone can imagine the automobile, a good science fiction writer imagines the traffic jam."

Originally Posted by Dr. Beckenstein

- And how do we classify the unbelievable speed at which the Covid-19 Vaccines have been developed? Mature TL 8 or early TL 9 biotech?

Drug discovery has been getting slower and more expensive for decades, but I would be interested in hearing from biochemists whether the ability to make vaccines is improving in general, or whether this was just luck / giving up cheap to get quick. When ?six? different labs create vaccines in one year, that does seem like it reflects a general trend.

[Farmer]

Originally Posted by Polydamas

Drug discovery has been getting slower and more expensive for decades, but I would be interested in hearing from biochemists whether the ability to make vaccines is improving in general, or whether this was just luck / giving up cheap to get quick. When ?six? different labs create vaccines in one year, that does seem like it reflects a general trend.

Clinical trials generally take the time they do because of budgetary constraints and cohort requirements (you have to have appropriate people to test on, and they have to be willing to join the test).

With COVID, you had governments pre-ordering vaccines and injecting funding in other ways, at a global level. You had a rapidly growing numebr of suitable cohort candidates who were rapidly eager to participate. As a result, all the normal trial phases were undertaken, but with less "down time" gaps in between because they had the money and the people to just run them. In fact, the cohorts were huge compared to most trials.

Additionally, research into coronavirus vaccines already existed, but just hadn't had much impetus because outbreaks had been controlled. Timing as also lucky with regard to mRNA vaccines as that technology was ripe for deployment, and the funding and trial cohorts were suddenly available.

It's not unlike technological advancement during war. Virtually unlimited funding, labour, and test subjects.

[Fred Brackin]

Originally Posted by Polydamas

If
Digital currencies show up in '90s pop culture

Something used in the creation of digital curencies might qualify as an invention (althugh possibly a small one) but digital curencies themselves look more like a meme to me.

They are worth something because people believe they are and are willing to buy them. If people stopped believing in digital currencies tomorrow they'd crash. Airplanes don't crash if people stop believing in them.

Just for the record my own willingnes to accept a digital currency as payment would depend on how fast I could turn around and sell it.

[Farmer]

Originally Posted by Fred Brackin

Something used in the creation of digital curencies might qualify as an invention (althugh possibly a small one) but digital curencies themselves look more like a meme to me.

They are worth something because people believe they are and are willing to buy them. If people stopped believing in digital currencies tomorrow they'd crash. Airplanes don't crash if people stop believing in them.

Just for the record my own willingnes to accept a digital currency as payment would depend on how fast I could turn around and sell it.

All currency is valuable only to the extent that people believe in and accept the value. Money is a medium of exchange. Sure, you might put some precious metals or whatever in it, but once it's currency rather than a weight of metal (or other items), it's all about belief and acceptance (which flow from other things like scarcity).

So, I agree that digital currencies are the same. Their value is certain more tenuous than most soverign backed currencies but...probably better than a few (how many KPWs would you accept outside of North Korea, for example)?

[Inky]

The invention, I suppose, is the "blockchain" system that made it possible to have such a currency without everyone hacking and forging it like there was no tomorrow.

[Farmer]

Originally Posted by Inky

The invention, I suppose, is the "blockchain" system that made it possible to have such a currency without everyone hacking and forging it like there was no tomorrow.

Yes, and blockhain is being used for other purposes, too (afterall, what it does is record transactions and track digital assets).