New Reality Seeds

[malloyd]

Originally Posted by TGLS

The year is 1818. Napoleon was defeated three years ago, and the great powers of Europe are tired of fighting. The Spanish have given up on their colonial empire. The United States eyes Haitian territory in Louisiana and Florida greedily, and facing an uncertain election, President Rufus King seems unlikely to choose peace in the event of a crisis. Any spark could set things off.

King seems an odd choice. He's often credited as the "last Federalist", retaining his Senate seat for a decade after the party collapsed, and the Federalists weren't doing so well - they'd only survived after Madison won because the Democratic Republicans got the blame for the not very popular or successful War of 1812. Of course it helps the DR don't get the credit for the Lousiana Purchase that also hasn't happened, and he could've changed parties and policies, politicians of the era weren't big into party loyalty, but the centralized authority, protectionist, pro-urban, anti-expansionist positions of the Federalists (and to a lesser extent later Whigs) weren't selling that well to the American voters.

[TGLS]

Originally Posted by malloyd

they'd only survived after Madison won because the Democratic Republicans got the blame for the not very popular or successful War of 1812.

Honestly I was going off the opposite assumption; the anti-war position of the Federalists eventually led to a tarnishing of their reputation, especially outside their core area in New England, and eventually their collapse. On top of that, Jeffersonian pro-French policies are probably seen as far more negative in this timeline. These two factors combine to strengthen a (moderated?) Federalist party.

[johndallman]

Originally Posted by fchase8

I had an idea where Japan's Meiji Restoration never happened, and instead Germany conquered divided Japan after the slaughter of some Prussian arms dealers. This pushed Bismarck into accepting the idea of colonies, which gave his young Kaiser something to focus on (also the navy needed to support colonies), so Bismarck was never dismissed.

It's an even more imperialistic 1901, right after the deaths of Queen Victoria and Bismarck (who survived longer thanks to Centran intervention), and a massive WWI could come very quickly on Bismarck-5. But if Infinity tries to stop it, the racist empires will survive...

You need the German naval build-up to start a lot earlier. If it's according to history, then in 1901 the British can prevent the Germans from running large operations in Japan without breaking a sweat.

[ericthered]

Originally Posted by johndallman

You need the German naval build-up to start a lot earlier. If it's according to history, then in 1901 the British can prevent the Germans from running large operations in Japan without breaking a sweat.

Maybe the two objections can be combined? The British and Germans both have to work hard to conquer Japan. The British have the navy but turn out to not have the ground forces they'd like. They split their conquest, of course.



That should be pretty close to what you want.



I can't see Russia liking this at all.

[Astromancer]

Originally Posted by ericthered

I can't see Russia liking this at all.

I can't see the USA liking this. Remember that the European great powers nearly divided China in this general period. The USA firmly objected. For reasons I don't know, the European great powers bowed to the American "Open Door Policy." If China would get such aid, I assume Japan would too.

[dcarson]

Sakhalin Island was under Japanese control at that time but not strongly. Afterwards it was back and forth between Japan, China and Russia. So if Germany is given it as a reward for helping a faction in Japan that wasn't sure they could hold it anyway. That gives Germany a decent chunk of not heavily settled land.

[malloyd]

Originally Posted by dcarson

Sakhalin Island was under Japanese control at that time but not strongly. Afterwards it was back and forth between Japan, China and Russia. So if Germany is given it as a reward for helping a faction in Japan that wasn't sure they could hold it anyway. That gives Germany a decent chunk of not heavily settled land.

Other "Japanese" islands only questionably under actual control of the government include Tsushima (probably the closest to independent of the daimyos), the Goto Islands (nominally Japanese, but mostly ignored, and a refuge area for Christians during the centuries it was illegal) and the Ryukyu chain (nominally "independent" tributataries of Qing, Japan or both)

The other substantial piece of land in this part of the world that is effectively up for grabs is Taiwan. It's nominally Qing and not Japanese until the Sino Japanese War in 1895, but not really governed by anybody. Throughout the 19th century various powers (including both Japan and the United States) sent punitive naval expeditions against pirates or native villages that had massacred shipwrecked sailors there.

[Astromancer]

Churchill -7

This Q6 Low Mana world diverges in the early 1940s when Winston Churchill decides that Operation Unthinkable was a when not an if.

British intelligence successfully created the illusion that the Soviets attacked first. The first rounds of this war have gone badly for the West. However, without Western aid the Soviets are dealing with their own problems. Plus, the Brits and Americans bombed the Azerbaijani oil fields giving the USSR the same fuel shortage that hampered the Germans.

The Brits have made serious propaganda advantages out of Stalin's more reprehensible WWII activities. Which silenced voices raised against the war for awhile.

But it's now 1948. Europe has been at total war for nine years, Asia has been through eleven years of war. Conventional society is breaking down cultural movements that were already baked in are moving even faster. The drives for racial and sexual equality, the sexual revolution, and many other cultural changes (associated with the 1960s) which started decades earlier are suddenly breaking out now.

The elites are seeing that, even if they win the war, the world they wanted will be gone. Both Britain and France see their colonies pulling away and America not seeing Empire as a worthwhile thing. The hierarchies of their societies seem to be like soap bubbles.

Centrum is appalled, they worked so hard to gain influence in this world. They even kept FDR alive! They were going to make it so that American distaste for empire didn't count. The Soviets were going to be neutered and America would be focused on its issues at home. Now it looks like the colonial empires of Europe would collapse early and Europe would be far slower to recover. This must be stopped!

Meanwhile, Homeline sees a chance to break or severely weaken Centrum influence on this world.

The Cabal is sniffing around a ruined and chaotic Europe for targets of opportunity.

[johndallman]

Originally Posted by Astromancer

This Q6 Low Mana world diverges in the early 1940s when Winston Churchill decides that Operation Unthinkable was a when not an if.

I think you mean mid-1940s? The historical Operation Unthinkable plan for an offensive was ordered and drafted in May 1945.

You need some changes to make it more feasible. Allan Brooke's diary records his opinion on the matter: that the Western Allies might be able to hold back the Soviets, at the cost of staying mobilised forever, but could not conquer them. He was chief of the Imperial General Staff and in charge of overall strategy for the British Empire.

[fchase8]

Originally Posted by malloyd

This is going to be [hard]. Japan before the Meiji Restoration isn't at the Great Power level, but it's still a regional power on the other side of the world. Japan has about the same population as Germany, and about a third of its GDP. Japan didn't actually leap from medieval poverty to modern economy after 1868 (or 1854), it wasn't that far behind before then.

I knew I was kind of pushing things (but most alternate worlds are...).

My idea was that Germany would attack certain feudal domains, support others, and kind of take over a fractured nation piecemeal. Kind of like Britain playing different princes against each other in India - a place with far more people than Japan or Britain.

Cornwallis had Russia conquering Japan (and Korea, and Manchuria). Dixie had the CSA conquering Mexico & Central America, while other Dixies have European powers dominant in North America. Reich had the Axis powers conquering the world. Shikaku-Mon had Japan conquering half the world.