New Reality Seeds

[Astromancer]

To make it easier on folks discussing the Supervolcano timeline I add the following. The place is named Thaw-1 , the Thaw designation is now for every parallel where an ice-age or similar disaster has come to and end recently.

The supervolcano was in the Belgian Congo. The eruption was in 1938.

Spring failed to come to Northern Europe in 1939, Hitler lauched his forces east in July of that year. The war was a brutal pointless mess that made everyone look silly and vile.

The Spanish Civil war was still won by Franco, but the eccological colapse brought his government down in the early 1940's

Regular rains started falling in both North Africa and the American Southwest in 1939 as well. Australia started having heavier rains the next year. New Zealand got colder, but not nearly as much as northern hemisphere countries. This was a matter of oceanic circulation.

More details as I come up with them.

[Gedrin]

Originally Posted by Astromancer

The basic idea of this setting is that the climate started shifting back around the year 2000AD. We are now in a climatic regime much like the early 20th century. The USA is on the edge of TL8, and the world is about to take off.

I think "explode" is a pretty good descriptor of what the world is about to do. The majority of surviving governments have seized control of production and distribution of materials, probably seen as a necessity by all at the start of the crisis. TL 8 is far too optimistic. I'd think low TL 7 at best. Seventy years of strict control and tight resources just doesn't seem likely to produce the same levels of innovation that Homeline 2000 had. The die off has killed so many people that you're going to be lucky to retain tech and not loose it.

Thaw-1 in 2000 is a world of vastly available resources, plentiful food, open spaces and governments that make Stalin look like a Care Bear. Those governments are full of people who've spent their entire career shooting people who are eating too much. Again, possibly as a survival necessity, but they're not going to want to loose their jobs, and they're not going to react well to radicals who want to change farming methods or control their own food supplies. I suppose you could have a world where the emergency doesn't span this type of reaction, or where the absolute power over food distribution isn't maintained, but I don't see historical rationale for it.

You could have a second renaissance, but you're likely to get a second round of guillotine revolutions first. More likely you'll get the same sort of dystopian control combined with megaprojects and the like. It's a world of very wealthy East Germanies.

[Astromancer]

Originally Posted by Gedrin

I think "explode" is a pretty good descriptor of what the world is about to do. The majority of surviving governments have seized control of production and distribution of materials, probably seen as a necessity by all at the start of the crisis. TL 8 is far too optimistic. I'd think low TL 7 at best. Seventy years of strict control and tight resources just doesn't seem likely to produce the same levels of innovation that Homeline 2000 had. The die off has killed so many people that you're going to be lucky to retain tech and not loose it.

You play it your way. Maybe a Cabalist decided that Thaw-1 meet his or her needs and snuck in out time tech which slowly got diffused. Also, government regulation does not equal fascism. The new Deal was not the moral equivalent of the Stalinist Purges or the Gestapo. The USA is the 20th century saw itself as innovative and innovation as a high good. Given the crisis, that would be encouraged!

Thaw-1 in 2000 is a world of vastly available resources, plentiful food, open spaces and governments that make Stalin look like a Care Bear. Those governments are full of people who've spent their entire career shooting people who are eating too much. Again, possibly as a survival necessity, but they're not going to want to loose their jobs, and they're not going to react well to radicals who want to change farming methods or control their own food supplies. I suppose you could have a world where the emergency doesn't span this type of reaction, or where the absolute power over food distribution isn't maintained, but I don't see historical rationale for it.

That might fly in frozen Europe, but the New Deal USA? You're projecting the politics and fears of today backwards. You're also mistaking FDR for a fascist.

You could have a second renaissance, but you're likely to get a second round of guillotine revolutions first. More likely you'll get the same sort of dystopian control combined with megaprojects and the like. It's a world of very wealthy East Germanies.

In the USA, which would be nearly uniquely positioned, the stress would be mammoth, but the nation would make it through. There were aspects of civil society, which both conservative policy and comsumer society have gotten rid of that would have gotten America through. A modern day USA would have a harder time in the crisis because we have had our democracy weakened over the decades.

Other societies would be undergoing crisis.

[Astromancer]

Further note on Thaw-1. Australia, during the cold snap had regular rains. Now, unlike our world's Australia, the soils were rich enough for this to make Australia's agriculture very productive. The population got up to sixty-million people.

Now the weather has moved back, and Australia is experiencing a serious drought. At least relative to their needs.

This is causing massive destabilization in the Indian Ocean basin.

[Phil Masters]

Are you assuming the better soils as an additional divergence point, or are you assuming Australia's mostly rather thin and grotty soils magically become deeper and richer as a result of the supervolcano?

[warellis]

Regarding Thaw-1, might it be at TL8 in certain areas while TL7 in other areas? Like due to having to be efficient with agriculture, might their agriculture tech or techniques be more advanced than TL7 due to having to utilize space or farming techniques as efficiently as possible?

[Gedrin]

Originally Posted by Astromancer

You play it your way. Maybe a Cabalist decided that Thaw-1 meet his or her needs and snuck in out time tech which slowly got diffused. Also, government regulation does not equal fascism. The new Deal was not the moral equivalent of the Stalinist Purges or the Gestapo. The USA is the 20th century saw itself as innovative and innovation as a high good. Given the crisis, that would be encouraged!



That might fly in frozen Europe, but the New Deal USA? You're projecting the politics and fears of today backwards. You're also mistaking FDR for a fascist.



In the USA, which would be nearly uniquely positioned, the stress would be mammoth, but the nation would make it through. There were aspects of civil society, which both conservative policy and comsumer society have gotten rid of that would have gotten America through. A modern day USA would have a harder time in the crisis because we have had our democracy weakened over the decades.

Other societies would be undergoing crisis.

I think you're underestimating the reduction of global population by 2/3 due to starvation. Even assuming the US gets off light, say only 10% of people die, martial law and communist style control are the least of the impositions you'll find. But as you say, play it your way.

[Astromancer]

Originally Posted by Phil Masters

Are you assuming the better soils as an additional divergence point, or are you assuming Australia's mostly rather thin and grotty soils magically become deeper and richer as a result of the supervolcano?

It's a handwave. I'm well aware that the real Australia's soils would not respond well to steady rains. I thought literary lisense would be fun. Your milage may vary.

[Astromancer]

Originally Posted by warellis

Regarding Thaw-1, might it be at TL8 in certain areas while TL7 in other areas? Like due to having to be efficient with agriculture, might their agriculture tech or techniques be more advanced than TL7 due to having to utilize space or farming techniques as efficiently as possible?

I could certainly see an alternative technological developement path. Plus I suggest that Cabalists, working to build a useful base for themselves, might have imported useful technologies.

In my take on this setting, the A-Bomb was never developed, and Thorium generators (because Thorium produces less waste and can't be made into an A-bomb) got all the research. The Cabal owned corperation has produced Thorium reactors. You can say they're TL8 or TL8+1 as you please.

[Astromancer]

Originally Posted by Gedrin

I think you're underestimating the reduction of global population by 2/3 due to starvation. Even assuming the US gets off light, say only 10% of people die, martial law and communist style control are the least of the impositions you'll find. But as you say, play it your way.

Actually world population in 1938 was less than 2 billion, I'm suggesting a great deal of sagnation and constant chronic food issues in most of the world.