New Reality Seeds

[Astromancer]

I think the best path to an earlier sustained presence in Space is twofold. First, keep the Russian Space Program in tact and focused on the Moon shot for a longer period. Perhaps even let the Soviets get to the Moon first. Second, replace Nixon with Humprey. Nixon saw space purely in terms of PR, Humprey saw it as a commitment to the future of humanity. The 1968 election was close, several things could have thrown it to Humprey. Expose Nixon's sabotage of the Peace talks in August or September by having a reporter unfriendly to Johnson and Humprey discover Nixon's plans and expose them.

With Humprey needing to prove American staying power even though we'd left Vietnam, putting more money into the Space Program would be safe and logical. The early end to the Vietnam war would leave the more strident groups in the American left drifting. Meanwhile, Humprey would be pushing anti-poverty programs and Union rights and thus strengthening the hand of the mainstream left. Space Exploration, which was associated with the New Frontier and progressive programs back then, would likely remain so. Greater investment, with an eye to sustained activity, would put the 2015 Space Program well ahead.

[Astromancer]

I'm reading The European Nobility in the Eighteenth Century which is a series of essays on the major European noblities as they existed in the 1700's. Hopefully I can turn something up interesting. The distinctions between those who have privilage and those who have power is interesting. I think GURPS needs a book on the fine points of status, something between Social Engineering and Power-ups.

Still, minor tinkering with the meaning of noble status could have major effects on a society. This would make an interesting set of variations.

[ericthered]

As a general thought, what type of divergences will completely kill off europe's rise to power? I'm not talking about bringing someone else to power, just not having europe's dominance come up.

[tshiggins]

Originally Posted by ericthered

As a general thought, what type of divergences will completely kill off europe's rise to power? I'm not talking about bringing someone else to power, just not having europe's dominance come up.

That's a tough one. You'd have to make either China more outward-looking, or make one of the Silk Road empires achieve lasting stability.

Alternatively, you could nuke Europe in the 18th Century, before industrialization really got going. Drop meteors on it, or have everybody die of a disease, or have the Yellowstone Caldera erupt and trigger a winter that lasts for three years, or something.

[Rysith]

Originally Posted by ericthered

As a general thought, what type of divergences will completely kill off europe's rise to power? I'm not talking about bringing someone else to power, just not having europe's dominance come up.

Define "Europe". Barring some sort of major, long-term catastrophe people will move in / conquer it because it's got farmland and natural resources. The culture and so on might be completely different, but there will still be 'people in Europe doing things', even if they are more culturally similar to other areas.

As long as you're willing to accept divergence points that don't involve rending Europe uninhabitable, I can think of a few events (with no justification as to /why/, since I'm not actually that familiar with the history)

- Icelandic volcanos erupt, causing widespread famine and general distress in Europe. You'd likely want to choose a point a generation or two from when you wanted to use the world so that Europe was still recovering but not still filled with the starving.
- For whatever reason, the disease exchange with the New World goes the other way - Columbus or one of his crew are Patients Zero for something with a long incubation period, high eventual lethality, and enough of a mutation rate that it doesn't just sweep the continent once and go away. Maybe there is a new world equivalent of cow/chickenpox that gives resistance, or it's something like malaria/sickle-cell and the Europeans don't have the right genes. This not only causes depopulation, but it also prevents the exploitation and colonization of the New World, significantly limiting the countries that ended up as colonial powers.
- Related to the above, the black plague displays increased lethality, causing additional disruption and depopulation. Wikipedia says that it took 150 years for the population to recover, imagine something that killed off enough people that it would take more on the order of 6-800 years and Europe isn't going to rise as a world power.
- For a version that doesn't involve killing everyone in Europe through natural causes, some quirk of geology causes Europe to be metal-poor, especially in iron. You can allow tin (for Bronze) if you want pre-iron civilization to be similar, but without iron you're looking at copper / bronze tools and weapons, which will not provide the same sort of industrial and military boost that iron smelting did. You might need to extend the iron-poor area to prevent someone else figuring iron out and conquering everyone, but it should prevent Europe from growing much beyond a local power.

As mentioned, those all just keep Europe down, they don't do much to prevent someone else nearby from moving in and setting up in the same land area. Different time periods would have different groups setting up, but if all you do is keep Europe down it seems likely that someone else, likely either from North Africa or the near east, would end up taking over culturally if not officially.

[Astromancer]

Originally Posted by ericthered

As a general thought, what type of divergences will completely kill off europe's rise to power? I'm not talking about bringing someone else to power, just not having europe's dominance come up.

Europe's advantages are pretty good, it would take a great deal to knock it down forever. A harsher Little Ice Age that started sooner and lasted longer combined with changes in Catholic Theology that made all math beyond arithmatic sinful might make a start. If all pre-Christian and Non-Christian writtings were held to be diabolic in inspiration and only Bishops and higher ups were allowed to read the Bible, or perhaps, like the Yazidis only the highest riligous authority was allowed to read sacred texts, you might limit literacy enough to stop Europe's rise.

More likely you'd simply get an Islamic conquest, an Islamic European Reformation, and European forms of Islam bitterly attacked by Near Eastern Moslems the same way the Orthodox Christians slam Western Christianity. Europe's geography and resources both promote civilisation and thwart a Universal Imperidum.

[Astromancer]

If you really want to prevent the rise of Europe, you probably really need someone else to rise first. Example, have the Gulf of Sidra extend all the way to lake Chad, or in this parallel the Bay of Chad. Sub-Saharan Africa would have been part of the classical world, West Africa would have risen at least as quickly as Europe and African diseases would have kept kocking Europe back. Africa would have done Oceanic exploration first, because they'd be aware of the profits to be had. Our world's Africa was brutally isolated and didn't have a good reason to start exploring.

[Astromancer]

Try this idea Poland was actually a fairly powerful and posperous kingdom. It was an historical accident that the nobility became massively undisciplined and paralysed the government. The reason Catharine and Frederick, along with Maria who "wept, but took," destroyed Poland is that the Poles were getting their act together.

Either keep the Piast Dynasty active after 1370 or prevent Jesuit influence in Poland (the Jesuits worked to destroy the civic culture of Poland because they believed that only such destruction would keep Poland Catholic). In any case, keep the Polish noble civic minded and Poland creates a far more stable and liberal (in the sense of respect for individual liberties) Eastern Europe.

Another path to Liberalism and constitutionalism in Eastern Europe might involve the corenation of Czarina Anne . There was a move by the nobles to force a constitution on Anne. At the time Anne was in a weak enough position to have had to except an constitution. But infighting amoung the nobles cancelled the idea. In a world were Anne, and after her Elizabeth and Catharine, needed to except a constitution, Russia might have evolved into a parliamentary democracy.

[Astromancer]

Extra bays and altered coarses for rivers would lead to some interesting alternate worlds.

Example: Add a sixth Great Lake, Lake Dakota. Lake Dakota would stretch from an inlet at about the Minnesota/Ontario border, to about 175 miles westwest of Homeline's Montanna/North Dakota border. Once the Eire canal opens, large numbers of people form New England and the Middle Atlantic states flood west. In this world, the north settles California quickly and early. Realising the West is going to be controlled by Free Soilers the South puts all its focus on taking Mexico and Cuba.

[robkelk]

Originally Posted by Astromancer

Extra bays and altered coarses for rivers would lead to some interesting alternate worlds.

Example: Add a sixth Great Lake, Lake Dakota. Lake Dakota would stretch from an inlet at about the Minnesota/Ontario border, to about 175 miles westwest of Homeline's Montanna/North Dakota border. Once the Eire canal opens, large numbers of people form New England and the Middle Atlantic states flood west. In this world, the north settles California quickly and early. Realising the West is going to be controlled by Free Soilers the South puts all its focus on taking Mexico and Cuba.

Considering that one reason the 49th Parallel was chosen as the border between Canada and the USA because it intersected Lake Superior, the existence of a sixth Great Lake might move that border a few degrees of latitude south...