Building to a K1 Civilization [Space]

[AlexanderHowl]

For those of you who are unfamiliar with the Kardashev Scale, it is a measure of the total energy consumption of a civilization. K0 is 1 MW (10^6 W), K1 is 10 PW (10^16 W), K2 is 10^26 W, K3 is 10^36 W, and K4 is 10^46 W. Right now, human civilization uses around 18 TW, so we have quite a way before we get to K1 status.

What type of development do you foresee occurring that would allow human civilization to reach K1 status? Would it be massive power arrays on Mercury generating vast amounts of antimatter? Would it be a ring of habitats orbiting the Earth collecting vast amounts of solar power? Would it be a distributed network of space colonies using fusion power? Would it be all three? What would be your vision of K1 and how would you use GURPS to play in it?

[Varyon]

Personally, I suspect we'll plateau well short of K1. To reach it, we'd probably need* to have colonized Luna and Mars, possibly Venus if that's possible. We'd also need quite a few space colonies, undoubtedly including mining stations and the like in the Belt. I assume - provided no amazing breakthroughs that we'd currently call superscience - energy generation would primarily be a combination of space-based solar power stations (that probably use microwaves to beam the power where it's needed) and fusion plants (which means we've got to make fusion economical). Antimatter might be an option for energy storage, although personally I suspect it's too difficult to contain, but I don't think that really fits into the energy budget (well, I guess we can inflate our energy expenditures due to the losses from producing antimatter, but that feels like cheating).

*Note some of this is more needing something to spend the energy budget on.


As a general setting thing, of course, FTL can make K1 more readily achievable, by allowing a civilization to basically duplicate itself in other systems. Give current humans the ability to readily colonize 1000 Sol-like systems, and I imagine even without further scientific advancement (aside from "how do we not die on an alien world"), within a few generations we'd be K1, simply because 1000 systems producing 18 TW each results in a civilization that produces 18 PW.

[AlexanderHowl]

STL interstellar colonization will likely require a lot of energy, so that may drive us up the K-scale, especially after the development of the colonies (though that may take a while). A STL interstellar expedition with an arrival mass of 1 million metric tons needs around 1.6 ZJ of energy to reach 0.05c. Assuming a 1,000 year journey, that results in an average of 50 TW each (with energy levels exceeding 5 PW during the acceleration phase). If a civilization sends out 1,000 of them over a 1,000 years, the energy consumption ends up averaging 50 PW, solidly putting it in K1 territory. Of course, that is just a numbers game at that point.

[Johnny1A.2]

Originally Posted by AlexanderHowl

For those of you who are unfamiliar with the Kardashev Scale, it is a measure of the total energy consumption of a civilization. K0 is 1 MW (10^6 W), K1 is 10 PW (10^16 W), K2 is 10^26 W, K3 is 10^36 W, and K4 is 10^46 W.

When was it so quantified? My recollection was that the K scale was more general, K1 is a civilization that uses the entire energy supply of its native world, including incident solar radiation, K2 was a civilization that used the entire output of the local star, and K3 was a galaxy-spanning civilization that used the energy output of all its member stars and (and black holes, and neutron remnants, and all the rest). By that measure, 10 PW looks way low for K1 status.

By that measure, K1 would be a tiny tad over 170 petawatts.

Right now, human civilization uses around 18 TW, so we have quite a way before we get to K1 status.

You'd think so...but at the current rate of increase, we get there around 2250, using the 10 PW marker. If we use 170 PW, we get there around 2270, give or take a bit. We reach the given K2 figure around 3080, give or take.

Which doesn't mean it'll happen, of course, exponential growth curves rarely sustain themselves over time.

What type of development do you foresee occurring that would allow human civilization to reach K1 status? Would it be massive power arrays on Mercury generating vast amounts of antimatter? Would it be a ring of habitats orbiting the Earth collecting vast amounts of solar power?

Unless the female fertility rate rises sharply, we'll likely level off well before K1 levels.

As to how we get there, probably the most workable method would be lots of solar collectors in Earth orbit, the L4/L5 locales, near the Moon, etc., combined with extensive nuclear energy (fission, fusion, or both).

[AlexanderHowl]

I am using Carl Sagan's K-scale, which posits a 10x increase in energy for every 0.1 increase (so, if 1 MW is 0, current human civilization is a little over 0.7). While human fertility is peeking, the energy consumption per $1 of the economy will likely increase quite a bit as TL increase (I assume a 4x increase per $1 per TL), meaning that the average TL12 person will consume around 2560x times as much energy as the average TL8 individual right now. That would mean that a TL12 civilization with 7.5 billion people would consume around 45 PW of energy.

With biofabrication and AI, you can also create a lot of 'people' without standard reproduction. A society that embraces AI could easily have SAIs outnumbering living people 10,000:1 by TL12. Even if the average SAI only consumed 1% of the energy of a living person, a society with 75 trillion SAIs would require 4.5 EW. At that point, they would be around a 1.3 of the K-scale, and would probably be constructing a ring at 0.1 AU for gathering solar energy.

[ericthered]

Originally Posted by Johnny1A.2

As to how we get there, probably the most workable method would be lots of solar collectors in Earth orbit, the L4/L5 locales, near the Moon, etc., combined with extensive nuclear energy (fission, fusion, or both).

I agree. The most likely K1 civilization to my mind is a swarm of habitats built with materials from the earth and moon, hanging out in a cloud around the earth. Incidental development would occur throughout the solar system at the same time. I'd also expect an orbital ring around the planet.

But maybe I watch too much Isaac Arthur.

[Varyon]

The 18 TW figure works out to around 2.4 kW per person. The majority of this isn't in the form of electricity, which I'm finding figures of around 309 W. If we assume average food consumption (which I assume works into that energy figure) is 2000 kcal per person per day (which is probably on the high side, given the lower dietary requirements of children and that many people survive on less than this), that gives another 97 W or so per person, leaving 2 kW leftover to, I assume, cover direct use of combustion (for heating, cooking, ICE's, etc). One would expect the last part to be replaced by often-more-efficient (except for perhaps heating) electric equivalents as technology advances. Increasing watts per person would first be increasing average quality of life, but you wouldn't need a lot for that to reach a comfortable level (perhaps a 5x increase, at most, I would think), so beyond that you're essentially talking entertainment of some flavor. That's a lot of energy spent on such if you don't see a massive population spike, which is why I said you'd need colonies (to hold that population; Earth's arguably overpopulated already). Colonists would also probably have higher wattage per person, as a good deal of energy would be spent creating and maintaining their artificial habitats. With a 20x increase in wattage per person, you'd need a 30x or so increase in population (probably achievable, between Mars, orbital colonies, and colonies in the asteroid belt) to reach K1.0.

I don't really think humans will ever reach that point, largely because I don't think colonies away from Earth will ever be more than scientific curiosities, if even that (due largely to them likely having atrocious ROI), but I'd love to be wrong.

[AlexanderHowl]

At a certain point, human civilization needs to leave the Earth to raise standards of living. For the entire current population to live at US standards of living (an Average Wealth late TL8 society), you would need the production of 3-5 Earths. The solution is to either a) accept a Poor Wealth TL8 society, b) reduce the population by 80%, or c) move 80% of the population off the Earth. Right now, we are a), because b) would be inhuman and c) would be unaffordable.

At TL9+ though, c) becomes possible, meaning that not only would the people immigrating from the Earth would experience a higher standard of living but the people staying on the Earth would gain a higher standard of living as populations decreased on Earth. TL9 carrying capacity is also 50% higher than TL8 carrying capacity which, when combined with TL9's 50% higher income, increases economic activity by x2.25, so societies can afford space colonization (especially since TL9 costs are $50,000 per ton). Starting at TL9, 80% of humanity can be easily moved from Earth to Space over the course of 50 years (especially since every woman in Space means that any children she bears is born in Space and does not have to be moved into Space).

It would be economic reasons then that would drive people to colonize space then, as society would become wealthier as colonization increased. While the Main Belt is probably RVM+0, the Neptune Trojan may be RVM+1 each, while the Kuiper Belt may be RVM+3. In total, those four locations would support a population of 13 billion humans. Of course, a significant proportion of income would have to be spent of sustaining life, meaning lower standards of living than on the Earth at TL9, but it would likely still be comparable to the USA at TL8 (plus TL9 technology).

[Say, it isn't that bad!]

Originally Posted by AlexanderHowl

While human fertility is peeking, the energy consumption per $1 of the economy will likely increase quite a bit as TL increase (I assume a 4x increase per $1 per TL), meaning that the average TL12 person will consume around 2560x times as much energy as the average TL8 individual right now. That would mean that a TL12 civilization with 7.5 billion people would consume around 45 PW of energy.

According to this:

https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=97&t=3

"In 2018, the average annual electricity consumption for a U.S. residential utility customer was 10,972 kilowatthours (kWh), an average of about 914 kWh per month."

Rounding that to 11,000 kwh, you are supposing that, at TL12, the average household uses 28,160,000 kwh, or 28.16 Gwh, per year.

I find this hard to accept. Even at TL12, I double a civilian household is going to use a significant percentage of an entire fusion reactor. I feel confident there is no technology listed in any GURPS book for TL12 (you mentioned tech levels, so GURPS is the assumed default) that would require around 6 gigawatt-hours per person per year for an ordinary civilian household (estimating an average of 4.5 people). There might be something in TL12^; possibly amortized FTL travel, or some sort of "Star Trekking" future where personal entertainment has reached the level of virtual mass holography. A planetary governors' residence could easily consume that much for defence systems and weapon emplacements during active combat, but at that point, it's essentially a military installation.

Although I also acknowledge that I might be wrong. :)

[doctorevilbrain]

The first thing we would need to do is have working nuclear fusion power plants. Why would we need to decrease population by 80%? I think that K3 is so unlikely it's ridiculous. Not even Star Wars's empire or the Borg is @ K3.