New Reality Seeds

[malloyd]

Originally Posted by robkelk

There are natural barriers in our way, but are they barriers to velociraptors? Not having seen a live 'raptor, I can't answer that question.

If they are natural animals, yes. Part of my point there is several million years of connection wasn't enough for most of the megafauna of either North or South America to make the trip to the other.

Astromancer says the outbreak started in Columbia. Will the Darién Gap be as much a hindrance to them as it is to us moving between the Americas? (link to WikiVoyage, to illustrate the dangers of traveling through the area)

Very possibly. One of the reasons advanced for not finishing that highway is that has been a successful firebreak against a number of animal diseases for more than a century we've been tracking them (Hoof and Mouth Disease seems to be the big one this generation).

[malloyd]

Originally Posted by warellis

Wasn't the main barrier the "dinosaurs" had in the books something about them not being able to eat most animals outside of that theme park island? And weren't the velociraptors showing that somehow that genetic limitation was failing or something?

IIRC they were able to eat chickens or something which showed the limits placed on them were failing.

I know Jurassic Park isn't known for plausible science, but seriously?

Terrestrial life has been made of the same mutually edible stuff since the beginning - everything routinely eats stuff that hasn't shared ancestors for billions of years.

[sir_pudding]

Originally Posted by malloyd

I know Jurassic Park isn't known for plausible science, but seriously?

Terrestrial life has been made of the same mutually edible stuff since the beginning - everything routinely eats stuff that hasn't shared ancestors for billions of years.

No it actually was fairly plausible, they had engineered an inability to synthesize some key proteins that needed to be added as dietary supplements, IIRC.

[adm]

Originally Posted by malloyd

I know Jurassic Park isn't known for plausible science, but seriously?

Terrestrial life has been made of the same mutually edible stuff since the beginning - everything routinely eats stuff that hasn't shared ancestors for billions of years.

In the first book, the dinosaurs had a genetically introduced lysine deficiency, they had feeders around the park to feed them, leave the park and die being the protective measure. I never read anything else from the series.

[malloyd]

Originally Posted by adm

In the first book, the dinosaurs had a genetically introduced lysine deficiency, they had feeders around the park to feed them, leave the park and die being the protective measure. I never read anything else from the series.

Ah, slightly better. Doesn't prevent them from eating modern organisms, they just starve eventually if they do. Though an amino acid seems a relatively poor choice for that. Especially for controlling carnivores - presumably the bodies of your prey species have much the same mix of them as you need to build your body.

[GreatWyrmGold]

The South Sea Bubble is a treasure trove of alternate-history possibilities.
If the original plan doesn't go off as planned, it means an economic slump for England in the early 18th century. If it works but the economic fallout is worse, the government (including the king) suffers more politically*, and nobody picks up the pieces, the entire empire could potentially collapse. Either way, it would let Spain claim dominance over the Atlantic and probably lead to something interesting in the colonies.
Alternatively, the original plan might go off and involve actually-profitable trade in the South Sea. Perhaps they find a way to make slave trading ridiculously profitable in Latin America, perhaps they find a high-value resource which Latin America desperately needs†. Or perhaps they actually get a half-decent bargaining position before pushing for peace. Regardless, the financial tomfoolery doesn't need to be as extreme, the South Sea bubble can hold longer, and the political fallout would be far less extreme (since, you know, the South Sea Trading Company was actually making money off of trade).
Or perhaps someone does pick up the pieces, but not who it was in our reality. Sir Robert "It Was" Walpole essentially decided whose complicity was revealed and punished and whose was not, and also essentially created the modern position of Prime Minister. If someone else took his place (e.g, if Walpole didn't listen to Jacomb's advice to not reinvest in the Company just as its stock was about to collapse), what would they do?

(Can you tell I like economics?)

*Perhaps if Knight's ledger was found?
†This works better in settings with some kind of supernatural element—say, a bunch of monsters are coming out of the Mexican jungles and only the English can supply countermeasures. (This would probably also improve England's bargaining position, further improving the profitability of trade.)

[Anders]

Originally Posted by adm

In the first book, the dinosaurs had a genetically introduced lysine deficiency, they had feeders around the park to feed them, leave the park and die being the protective measure. I never read anything else from the series.

The impact of this "lysine deficiency" (meaning they can't synthetize lysine) is somewhat lessened by the fact that no vertebrates can synthesize lysine or indeed many other amino acids. We seem to do fine... :o)

[sir_pudding]

Originally Posted by Anders

The impact of this "lysine deficiency" (meaning they can't synthetize lysine) is somewhat lessened by the fact that no vertebrates can synthesize lysine or indeed many other amino acids. We seem to do fine... :o)

It would make a difference if they lacked the gene for lysine aminoacyl tRNA synthase or any of the lysine specific genes for the protoelysis or peptide transport pathways.

[GreatWyrmGold]

Well, the same book also has Ian Malcom claiming that black-body radiation somehow affects how uncomfortable it is to wear black in the summer, so I think it's fair to say that Crichton doesn't know what he's talking about most of the time.


Anyways, a few more specific scenarios I thought of.

USGA
Archduke Franz Ferdinand is an infamous figure, for his death sparked one of the worst conflicts in human history. It is popular to speculate on what may have happened had his final assassin failed to do the deed, or if the plot never took place. This will be assuming the latter, and focusing on one specific plan of the Archduke's.
I speak of the potential reorganization of Austria-Hungary into the United Stated of Greater Austria. The intent was to reduce ethnic tensions in the nation by giving a voice and greater equality to the many minority ethnicities in the empire. These plans were, of course, cut off by his death, and his distaste for Hungarians in specific could have hampered implementation, but it would likely have stabilized the empire. Combined with his foreign policy (notably his treatment of Serbia) and his desire for Austria-Hungary to become a great power, the nation would likely be in a safer position when the inevitable war broke out.
Because war would come to Europe. The great leaders of the 19th century had designed a system for peace, but times had changed (notably with the great land power of Germany arising from a sea of insignificant states) and most 20th-century leaders paled in comparison to their forebears. War would be delayed, perhaps by a few years or a decade, but it would come. But with a stronger Austria-Hungary that isn't fighting a war in the south, and with other potential shifts in the political landscape, the winners and losers could easily be far different.

Intermarium
In this world, Władysław Reymont supports the ideas of Promethism and, like many Polish nationalists, saw the unification of central Europe as an ideal way to accomplish this. In the last years of the 19th century, some of his nationalist friends inspire him to write an allegory for the threat of Russian imperialism. He never writes The Peasants or attains the worldwide recognition it gave him, but he did write a novel which attained great popularity across central Europe.
In our world, Intermarium—the aforementioned central union—was an idea for curtailing German and Soviet power after World War One crafted by a few and barely supported by more. In this world, the idea had been popularized, discussed, and refined for decades beforehand, making it seem more feasible. The nations involved convinced enough great powers that it came to be.
Unfortunately, it didn't quite work as planned. Ethnic tensions began to simmer within the first year, disputes over the exact level of autonomy given to the states within Intermarium boiled over quickly, and central authority was limited to attempted conflict mediation and a few tasks no local governments could be bothered with. When the Great Depression hit at the end of 1929, the nation collapsed into chaos—not civil war, for that implies that most of the conflict is between organized groups. Stalin stepped in to "support the Intermarium government" almost immediately, followed shortly by German chancellor Müller. This unrequested support turned into all but open warfare between the German, Soviet, and Intermarium governments as well as various local groups with alarming rapidity, which in turn brought other powers into the war (first to "support" the Intermarines and "oversee" the Germans and Soviets, but later openly), and the second World War kicks off while everyone's in the middle of an economic crisis.
On one hand, the war creates a large number of jobs early in the recession; on the other hand, it destroys a large number of essentially everything. While the war doesn't spiral out to be anything like either allohistorical World War, Europe (especially central Europe) takes serious economic losses; meanwhile, the Americans become even more Euroskeptic, instead focusing on their economy and (eventually) imperialism in Latin America.
But not all is terrible. Stalin's Soviet Union suffered some shocks, causing it and its apathetic atrocities to vanish from history. Gone, too, is the era of the Nazis as we know them; the obvious targets of Communists and Jews are near-gone and less appealing.
A third "world war" is likely. Everyone is in at least as sorry a state as they were in our interwar period, and the mutually-assured destruction promised by atomic weapons had not yet reared its terrifying head. But what causes it? Who allies with who? How does it end? What comes next?

Kim Jong-nam
Finally, an extremely recent one—the divergence point is earlier this century!
In our timeline, Kin Jong-il was caught in a Japanese airport, trying to get into Disneyland Tokyo. This was the catalyst for his fall from grace in the family, but that had already been put in place by his interest in reform and opening the nation. In this world, he manages to barely slip under the radar, but his close calls convince him to lay low until he actually runs the country.
When his father died in 2005, this timeline's Jong-nam took his place as Supreme Leader. He was in some ways more foolish than his half-brother Jong-un, but listened to experienced advisers better, making him overall less of a national embarrassment and target of foreign mockery. His reforms began to bring North Korea into the 21st century, or at least the later half of the 19th century; this is seen as the best thing to happen to the country since...well, ever.
Not all see it that way. While Jong-nam is friendly with China, China is concerned with how friendly he is to the West. After all, North Korea is China's only buffer between itself and American-aligned South Korea. Some suspect that may be supporting a coup lead by reactionary members of the North Korean government and army, installing another of Jong-il's children as Supreme Leader—one more willing to place nice with China and only China. If this plan came to pass, who knows what the results would be? And who knows what would happen if proof was found of Chinese involvement?

[Astromancer]

Originally Posted by adm

If we did not delay elections for the U.S. Civil War, I don't see them being delayed for anything short of an alien invasion.

Both candidates were assassinated. One by Latin American refugees and one in retaliation because bloggers said that the other assassination was paid for by the surviving candidate.