New Reality Seeds

[Astromancer]

An interesting alternate history might come from the court of Charles V. German townsmen came to him asking to settle in what is now Argentina. The Castillian nobles shouted the idea down. However, in another parrallel, Siberland might be a thriving nation in the area of Argentina. And given the nature of the German settlements, and there tendency to a much faster rate of growth (much like the settlements in what is now the USA) Siberland is probably much larger than Argentina.

This would give you a new world with different poles of power. The world political history of the USA might be very different. Certainly, many of the Catholic Germans that came to the USA might have gone to Siberland instead. If the stereotype in Europe became, the USA is the protestant nation, Siberland the Catholic one. Then most of the Catholic emigration to the USA might have gone south.

[Astromancer]

Try this reality seed Gandhi, Jinnah, and Nehru all get assassinated on the same day in the early 1930's. The assassin was about to kill the viceroy of India when B. R. Ambedkar slugged him with a chair leg. Ambedkar becomes the hero both of the independence movement and the local Brits. Churchill hated Gandhi deeply (maybe because they were both a strange mix of visionary idealist and hidebound reactionary) but in this reality Ambedkar manages to deal pleasantly with Churchill.

India has self-rule from 1933 on, independence comes later (1950) but there is no partition of India and Burma/Myanmar remains part of India as well. Gandhi's anti-technological biases and anti-birth control ideas never have any influence. India on the same development track as the East Asian tigers from 1950 on, only with fewer setbacks and ecconomic stocks. India's government is famous for a lack of corruption and a high level of efficiency.

The downside is that the China India rivalry is much nastier and more bitter.

[robkelk]

Originally Posted by Astromancer

Try this reality seed Gandhi, Jinnah, and Nehru all get assassinated on the same day in the early 1930's.

Great Britain was already becoming tired of maintaining its Empire, so this would have slowed the move toward independence rather than stopping it. I would suspect India would have gained more autonomy a short time after World War II in any case, but it might become a Dominion rather than gaining independence outright. That would have slowed the breakup of the Empire - the sun might still always shine on it in the early 21st century in this alternate, and that universe's India might just now be gaining sovereignty.

As for India's internal affairs, I don't know enough about that part of history to comment meaningfully.

[Astromancer]

Originally Posted by robkelk

As for India's internal affairs, I don't know enough about that part of history to comment meaningfully.

That's why I posted links. Jinnah kept the partition force coherent, with him dead, the desire to create an Islamic state out of sections of India would remain, but it would have had any practical structure. Gandhi and Nerhu were both anti-mondern and anti-technological, they also were against birth control. Meanwhile Ambedkar was pro-technology, pro-moderisation, able to see the benefits of more than one kind of ecconomy, and free of much other bagage.

If Ambedkar had been the major shaping force in South Asia, a United India (compossed of India, Pakistan, Bangledesh, and Myanmar) is possible. And having an India as ecconomically developed as Japan or Korea is narrowly possible as well. A world where India has a population of 600 million and they live in a society were the per capita wealth is only about 10% less than South Korea's would have very different power structures.

China dislikes fears India as it is. An India that's China's clear superior would drive Russia and China into an allience. Perhaps Iran, which in this world would share a border with India, would also be in the Russo-Chinese allience. A cold war in Asia could pull the USA in as well. Thus you've got a seriously nasty mess.

[dcarson]

A earlier prosperous India would have a similar effect that China has been having. More demand for thins like oil and other tech economy commodities would be more expensive. This would change development world wide. Maybe more nuclear power maybe space based solar.

[Drifter]

Originally Posted by dcarson

A earlier prosperous India would have a similar effect that China has been having. More demand for thins like oil and other tech economy commodities would be more expensive. This would change development world wide. Maybe more nuclear power maybe space based solar.

Would manufacturing from the US flee to this India, like it has to China? This India would be democratic, and maybe not a one-party democracy, but they certainly wouldn't be as command driven as Communist Party ruled China. Workers would be less inclined to accept low wages and working conditions, although they certainly wouldn't be at as high a standard as in the West. Indian manufacturing would still be cheaper than in the US, but not by such a large factor.

If India is a Commonwealth country, or just a closer ally to Britain, that still adjusts the balance of power during the Cold War to the Western side. There might not be that big an incentive for Nixon to open relations with China in 1972. Or his still might do it, but there won't be that much of shock to the economy. Or the economy already took the shock back in the 1950s, with the Rust Belt starting a decade early. But at a milder level and a longer adjustment to post-industrialism in the Amerian north. China on the other hand does not experience the tremendous growth, and it siphons as much of the manufacturing base from India as it does from anywhere else.

[scc]

Drifter, some manufacturing might have moved to India, but not a lot of it, remember that shipping costs have to be added in when you do the manufacturing overseas. Also if India remains a part of the Commonwealth and fells threatened by Soviet Russia then the British Empire may make a comeback in a big way, and become what some people wanted it to be a one time, an actual EMPIRE. The net result of this is what the British Empire would be a third superpower during the mid to late cold war

[Astromancer]

An India that was clearly rising to superpower status from the mid-sixties on would certainly alter the later cold war. Lots of lively spy game possiblities.

[Drifter]

Remember without Gandhi the idea of non-violence doesn't have a big-name advocate. Everything from colonial independence movements to the US Civil Rights efforts are violent, destructive and see far harsher retaliations.

A renewed British Empire, and a marginally more prosperous US/West, thanks to the more prosperous and better integrated India, would certainly make the USSR more nervous. I can see several timelines in this reality cluster. I like the name Babasaheb, Ambedkar's nickname.

Babasaheb-1 is Astromancer's spy campaign, a James Bond world, mid-60s. Rich and advanced enough to actually have a lot of James Bond gadgets.

Babasaheb-2 is a ruined, radioactive wasteland. The Six-Day War sparked a general missile exchange in 1967. Just how ruined is the question; a full exchange wipes out everything ala Centrum. Centrum agents, if here, are probably very active. A key strikes war, maybe only dealing with the mid-East oil fields and some key elements, sees an economically ruined world. With no big oil flows, international shipping dies - at least on an industrial scale.

Babasaheb-3 is beset with civil violence. Rioting consumes many cities in the West as the Civil Rights movement is violently put down. Soviets send aid to the increasingly desperate groups in the American South, and semi-post-colonial Africa. Economic gains made thanks to India in the 50s have eroded away, and much of the West looks like 70s or 80s Israel, large sections of major cities walled off, terrorist bomb blasts a daily occurrence, armed guards everywhere you look. A dystopian, neo-1984 world.

[Randyman]

Originally Posted by Drifter

Babasaheb-3 is beset with civil violence. Rioting consumes many cities in the West as the Civil Rights movement is violently put down. Soviets send aid to the increasingly desperate groups in the American South, and semi-post-colonial Africa. Economic gains made thanks to India in the 50s have eroded away, and much of the West looks like 70s or 80s Israel, large sections of major cities walled off, terrorist bomb blasts a daily occurrence, armed guards everywhere you look. A dystopian, neo-1984 world.

There were civil rights groups and demonstrations outside of the American South, too. (c.f. Chicago, "The city that broke Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.") Did these not survive the crackdowns, or did the initial crackdowns prevent their formation/occurrence?