Fortune/Misfortune Trait

[Varyon]

Originally Posted by WingedKagouti

It also makes it harder to grok the (dis)advantage instinctively, which IMO is a point against using that verbiage. Adding a conditional that goes counter to the core use of the (dis)advantage adds more than one extra step to the understanding of it.

[...]

In fact, I expect the average player would look at the Advantage and go something like "It costs 100 points, why does it have a built in downside?". While the Disadvantage probably looks less negative than it actually is.

Hmmm, this is a good point. I have a habit of making things a bit finicky, so sanity checks like this are invaluable. Honestly, I suspect I may be making too much of the elevated Critical Success chance. Looking at the anydice results, Luck sees a similar boost, yet 13 levels (for Unlimited Use) of Luck (Success Rolls Only -10%) would be [175.5] ([182] if you round before multiplying by 13). I stated before that the functional boost to skill for Luck is around +2.5 and would be worth around [150], indicating the boost to Critical Success chance is worth around [25]. Applying that to our [105] for the +1.75 to skill we get with "4d, discard highest," we wind up with [130] for Fortune. [125] arguably looks a bit more GURPSy and wouldn't be inappropriate. Misfortune may be more appropriately-priced at [-100], as it doesn't elevate Critical Fail chance as much as Fortune does for Critical Success (the issue with Fortune is for characters with effective skill 16+).

I will say, however, that in any campaign where Fortune (or Unlimited Use Luck) is available, a Critical Hit shouldn't make defense impossible - rather, it should make it so you have to get a Critical Success on your defense roll to negate the hit (and this functions as a normal success on hitting and normal success on defending, no special effects come into play).

[JulianLW]

Originally Posted by Varyon

Hmmm, this is a good point. I have a habit of making things a bit finicky, so sanity checks like this are invaluable. Honestly, I suspect I may be making too much of the elevated Critical Success chance. Looking at the anydice results, Luck sees a similar boost, yet 13 levels (for Unlimited Use) of Luck (Success Rolls Only -10%) would be [175.5] ([182] if you round before multiplying by 13). I stated before that the functional boost to skill for Luck is around +2.5 and would be worth around [150], indicating the boost to Critical Success chance is worth around [25]. Applying that to our [105] for the +1.75 to skill we get with "4d, discard highest," we wind up with [130] for Fortune. [125] arguably looks a bit more GURPSy and wouldn't be inappropriate. Misfortune may be more appropriately-priced at [-100], as it doesn't elevate Critical Fail chance as much as Fortune does for Critical Success (the issue with Fortune is for characters with effective skill 16+).

I will say, however, that in any campaign where Fortune (or Unlimited Use Luck) is available, a Critical Hit shouldn't make defense impossible - rather, it should make it so you have to get a Critical Success on your defense roll to negate the hit (and this functions as a normal success on hitting and normal success on defending, no special effects come into play).

Well, Luck also makes Critical Success a lot more likely - and it can almost eliminate Critical Failures, if used wisely. But the trait doesn't seem to be priced with this side effect in mind. I think it's okay - especially for a trait this expensive - to allow the changes to critical success and failure just be a secondary feature of paying for such a large advantage.

[Varyon]

Originally Posted by JulianLW

Well, Luck also makes Critical Success a lot more likely - and it can almost eliminate Critical Failures, if used wisely. But the trait doesn't seem to be priced with this side effect in mind. I think it's okay - especially for a trait this expensive - to allow the changes to critical success and failure just be a secondary feature of paying for such a large advantage.

Oh, I'm aware Luck was almost certainly just given a fiat price that "felt" right*. But, as it turns out, turning Luck (Success Rolls Only -10%) into an Always-On kind of thing (with 13 levels) gets a price that's basically right at [+25] compared to boosting everything to get a similar increase in overall success rates. And, as luck (heh) would have it, the impact of Luck on the chance for a Critical Success is basically identical to the impact of Fortune. Luck gives a 1.38% chance of a 3, a 5.45% chance of a 4 or lower, a 13.26% chance of a 5 or lower, and a 25.29% chance of a 6 or lower (the highest you can roll and have a Critical Success - provided you're rolling against a 16 or higher). Fortune instead gives a 1.62% chance of a 3, a 5.79% chance of a 4 or less, a 13.04% chance of a 5 or lower, and a 23.15% chance of a 6 or lower. So, if we treat boosting to a ~25% chance of Critical Success (basically the same as allowing a Critical Success on a roll of 8 with a skill of 18+) as worth [25], we can just toss that onto the price of +1.75 to Success Rolls and we're good to go. Arguably, Luck should be worth more, as it does indeed depress the chance of a Critical Failure a good deal more (Luck's chance of rolling a 17+ is somewhere below 0.005%, going off of anydice giving a 0.00% probability there, while Fortune only drops 17+ to 0.39% 18 to 0.08%)... but then I did suggest going with [125] rather than [130] (for aesthetics rather than a more-legitimate reason, but the lessened effect on Critical Failures does help justify it).

*But of course GURPS was designed by people with a lot of TTRPG experience, so their "feels about right" has a lot of weight behind it.