06-11-2019, 11:34 AM | #11 | |
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Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Southeast NC
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Re: Approaching TL9?
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RyanW - Actually one normal sized guy in three tiny trenchcoats. |
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06-11-2019, 12:05 PM | #12 | |
Join Date: Feb 2016
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Re: Approaching TL9?
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Improved Dawn Mission (TL7) First Stage: 1,000 tons Components: Upper Stage, Fuel Tanks (13), and Chemical Rocket (1)-3.12 mps Second Stage: 300 tons Components: Upper Stage, Fuel Tanks (13), and Chemical Rocket (1)-3.12 mps Third Stage: 100 tons Components: Upper Stage, Fuel Tanks (13), and Chemical Rocket (1)-3.12 mps Fourth Stage: 30 tons Components: Upper Stage, Fuel Tanks (13), and Chemical Rocket (1)-3.12 mps Fifth Stage: 10 tons Components: Light Alloy Armor (2), Control Room (2), Scientific Comm/Sensor Array (2), Fuel Tanks (13), and Chemical Rocket (1)-3.12 mps With 15.6 mps of delta-v, the improved Dawn mission would have made more flexibility than our version, would have been more efficient because it could have used Oberth maneuvers, and would have been more robust because of the spare Control Room and Scientific Comm/Sensor Array. |
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06-11-2019, 07:43 PM | #13 |
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Buffalo, New York
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Re: Approaching TL9?
As noted by another - it is hard to predict the future.
Note that when GURPS ULTRATECH first came out for GURPS 3e, the Just around the corner from now predictions fell into two categories... We already have it today - which indicates that some few of the items were mis-labeled as to what their TL should have been or... We still don't have it yet. TL 8 (which is the just around the corner TL for the older Tech tree in GURPS 3e) is to that system as TL 9 is to this. Using the revamped TL tree offered in TRANSHUMAN SPACe, we're STILL not entirely at TL 8. <shrug> In the end, you can simply go the route you want as GM and wave your hands saying "Thus it is" or not. Me? I honestly don't think we're in TL 9 as yet. Inching towards it, yes, but actually there? No. Automated cars aren't in mainstream use in the United States or Japan or anywhere else for that matter. Even back in the day, early GURPS didn't predict or require that the entire world have a given technology in operation per se, but that the technology was in wider use. So - we're not in TL 8 for GURPS 3e rules, nor are we in TL 9 for 4e rules in my opinion. Now for the really FUN part. Have you noted that GURPS has tech tree evaluations in which one can accelerate some aspects of a Tech level, but leave alone or even retard other aspects? Using computers as a guideline for tech advancement seems to follow that one concept - as far as many others are concerned. I still would like to ask one simple question... What precisely is "Complexity" in real world terms? What complexity rating would you assign to Microsoft's OFFICE SUITE from 1995 as compared/contrasted against Office Suite 2010 vs what it has become today? What complexity rating would you assign any of the 3D software that has been written in the past vs what has been designated as cutting edge software today? Until we have an actual "This is complexity X" for various software - how do you relate it to anything in GURPS where computers are concerned - and how to you determine if we've hit TL 9 for computers today? (I would advise that if you want to answer this question specifically, that rather than derail this thread, to open up a new one instead). |
06-11-2019, 08:42 PM | #14 | |
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Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Southeast NC
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Re: Approaching TL9?
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* And remember that pretty much every spacecraft is a one-off, subject to production cost increases that GURPS Spaceships happily ignores.
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RyanW - Actually one normal sized guy in three tiny trenchcoats. |
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06-11-2019, 10:40 PM | #15 |
Join Date: Feb 2016
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Re: Approaching TL9?
We do not even have a mature TL7 space industry, much less a mature TL8 space industry, so everything is one off missions that cost 100x as much. For example, a mature TL7 space industry would be able to put stuff into LEO for $500 per kilogram, but we have problems getting the price down to $5000 per kilogram (SpaceX has aspirational goals, but they are charging the same as everyone else).
For example, a mature TL7 space industry would use a four stage design to put stuff into LEO (three lift stages and one cargo stage). The first two lift stages would have 12 fuel tanks, one soft-landing system, and a chemical rockets, each giving 2.52 mps of delta-v. The third lift stage would have 10 fuel tanks, one soft-landing system, one control room, one chemical rocket, and one habitat. The cargo stage would be the payload. Starting with a 1,000 ton vehicle, you could put 30 tons into orbit for $680k worth of reaction mass and $800k worth of soft-landing systems, a total of $1.48M or $55 per kilogram. Even if you quadrupled the cost to $6M per launch to account for everything else, the cost would only be $223 per kilogram, which is 10% of even the best estimation of SpaceX. It is sad truth, but we are not that good at space. |
06-12-2019, 01:19 AM | #16 | |
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Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Southeast NC
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Re: Approaching TL9?
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"Having a mature industry" and "being at a particular TL" are two different things. We have put ion engines into operation, and that is a TL8 technology. The fact that we haven't done it a lot of times doesn't mean we haven't reached TL8. By that logic, we might not even be up to TL7 rocketry because nobody made more than a handful of nuclear thermal rockets (and none flew).
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RyanW - Actually one normal sized guy in three tiny trenchcoats. |
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06-12-2019, 09:12 AM | #17 |
Join Date: Feb 2016
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Re: Approaching TL9?
One item does not make a TL, as you can development experimental technology through the normal invention rules, which can be a TL ahead of the baseline technology. A TL8 ion drive for a SM+4 vehicle (six times as large as Dawn) should cost only $30k. The ion drive on Dawn ended up costing as much as 100x as much, meaning that it is experimental technology, so you could just as easily say that it is a TL8 experiment from a TL7 technology.
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06-12-2019, 09:59 AM | #18 | |
Join Date: Jul 2008
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Re: Approaching TL9?
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That has nothing to do with tech level.
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I don't know any 3e, so there is no chance that I am talking about 3e rules by accident. |
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06-12-2019, 10:17 AM | #19 | |
Join Date: Jun 2013
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Re: Approaching TL9?
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As for the experimental nature of ion drives, I'd say that would be appropriate for the ones tested in the 60's (which was indeed TL7), but the modern ones are sufficiently mature to be called a part of the current TL. I certainly do agree we'd be more advanced than we are now if we'd invested more in space travel, but that's more along the lines of things being cheaper and us potentially having access to some of the technology Spaceships defines as TL9... because GURPS defines TL's up to 8 by what actually happened/existed, rather than by what could have happened/existed given different parameters. I'll admit Spaceships does do a bit of the "could have been" exploration with giving stats for non-experimental tech that I don't think ever got beyond experimental (or even just theoretical, like the Orion as I understand it).
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GURPS Overhaul |
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06-12-2019, 12:58 PM | #20 |
Join Date: Jan 2014
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Re: Approaching TL9?
I hate to break this to you, but the Chemical Rockets presented in GURPS Spaceships are almost implausibly efficient compared to chemical rockets we have today. Even assuming that Fuel Tanks have a negligible dry mass, the specific impulse ends up around 468.38 seconds, slightly more efficient than modern upper stages. Adding in an adjustment for fuel tank structure makes them even more efficient. On top of this, rocket engines designed to operate from launch aren't even close to this level of efficiency because of higher thrust demands and pressure differences.
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Tags |
earth, humanity, real world, tech level, tl9 |
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