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10-25-2022, 11:30 AM | #1 |
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Berkeley, CA
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Real-World Skill Levels: ELO
A general problem with computing real-world skill levels is that skill is usually not numerically ranked in the way RPGs do it. However, there is an exception: the ELO system.
ELO has a very simple method: your performance in any given match is assumed to correspond to your true skill level plus a random value, which is a normal distribution with a standard deviation of 200. In GURPS, your performance is assumed to be your true skill level plus a random value, which is roughly a normal distribution with a standard deviation of slightly under 3. If we assume a chess game is a single quick contest, 1 point of GURPS skill is 67 ELO; we'll round to 70 for convenience. The floor for skill in USCF is 100; if we set that to a GURPS skill of 4, our formula is ELO/70 + 3. This means the current top human player (Magnus Carlson, ELO has hovered in the mid 2800s for the past ten years) has a skill level of 43, and Stockfish 13 has a skill level of 53. Not sure any of that is actually useful to games, but it seemed interesting. |
10-25-2022, 11:53 AM | #2 |
Join Date: Aug 2007
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Re: Real-World Skill Levels: ELO
From context I can guess that this is about a chess ranking system and I can even guess that "USCF" is probably "United States Chess Federation" but if I google "ELO" I'm going to get a bunch of links about "Electric Light Orchestra" first.
Perhaps a little more explanation would help.
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Fred Brackin |
10-25-2022, 12:44 PM | #3 | |
Night Watchman
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: Cambridge, UK
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Re: Real-World Skill Levels: ELO
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The Path of Cunning. Indexes: DFRPG Characters, Advantage of the Week, Disadvantage of the Week, Skill of the Week, Techniques. |
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10-25-2022, 02:42 PM | #4 |
Join Date: Aug 2014
Location: Snoopy's basement
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Re: Real-World Skill Levels: ELO
ELO was popular in its day and had a couple of songs that could be said to endure in the culture, but I don't think any of them ranked particularly high in virtuousity.
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10-25-2022, 04:14 PM | #5 |
Join Date: Apr 2005
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Re: Real-World Skill Levels: ELO
It's an interesting idea, but given that any chess ranking system implies people good enough to be nationally or internationally competitive chess players, and that it mostly ranks differences in skill between players rather than absolute skill, it needs serious tweaks to GURPSify it.
As a quick fix, I'd suggest that you need a minimum skill of Games (Chess) 12 to get ranked as a player and any ratings above that reflect higher levels of skill. That is, the worst chess player in the system has skill 12 and everyone else is better than that. |
10-25-2022, 10:11 PM | #6 | |
Join Date: Dec 2004
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Re: Real-World Skill Levels: ELO
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10-26-2022, 12:37 AM | #7 |
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Berkeley, CA
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Re: Real-World Skill Levels: ELO
If you break ties evenly, it's about 59%. 100 points of Elo is 0.35 standard deviations (assuming two normal curves each with standard deviation 200), 1 point of skill is about 0.24 standard deviations on 6d6, which means if you interpret a chess game as a single quick contest, 1 point of skill is about 70 Elo. If you want to flatten the numbers to more like common GURPS skill levels, treating a chess match as a best of 5 makes the ratio about 150.
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10-26-2022, 01:56 AM | #8 | |
☣
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Southeast NC
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Re: Real-World Skill Levels: ELO
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RyanW - Actually one normal sized guy in three tiny trenchcoats. |
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10-26-2022, 07:16 AM | #9 | |
Join Date: Jun 2006
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Re: Real-World Skill Levels: ELO
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-- MA Lloyd |
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10-25-2022, 12:02 PM | #10 |
Join Date: May 2007
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Re: Real-World Skill Levels: ELO
It goes without saying, but should probably still be stated explicitly, that there is no particular reason to assume that there is a simple linear correspondence between ELO rating and GURPS skill.
That said, and proceeding to speculate wildly, an ELO rating well above 2000 is said to correspond to the title of "master", so that ought to be in the 16-18 range by the skill level descriptions in Basic Set.
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I predicted GURPS:Dungeon Fantasy several hours before it came out and all I got was this lousy sig. |
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