[IW] Welsh America

[ArmoredSaint]

Originally Posted by The Colonel

I thought there was some evidence that the Chinese had, indeed, settled parts of the west coast in our timeline.

Nope.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese...ery_of_America

[Turhan's Bey Company]

Originally Posted by Ed the Coastie

Why am I doing this? Because I want to use the Americas as a setting for some gaming that I have planned. I'll sic the Black Death and/or a resurgent Mongol Empire on Europe if I have to in order to keep Columbus and company away from the Americas.

Plagues are probably not the solution for maximum plausibility, since in our history they kept returning every couple of generations through into the 19th century without stopping European expansion. Sending out the Mongols to completely trash Europe is certainly an option, but I'll suggest a more unusual one as well:

Let things go well for Europe. In particular, let the east be extremely friendly. Perhaps the Crusades work out well and Crusader kingdoms become a permanent fixture in the Levant; maybe they even take Egypt. This means that the mercantile powers of later Medieval Europe keep access to their overland trade routes, and the Spanish and Portuguese have little incentive to go sailing around the world. The major European powers of Venice and Genoa are focused on establishing footholds in India and China from their bases on the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf instead of going the long way around.

[Ed the Coastie]

Yikes! I just realized that I need horses...or a similar beast suitable for riding.

[Kelly Pedersen]

Originally Posted by Turhan's Bey Company

Let things go well for Europe. In particular, let the east be extremely friendly. Perhaps the Crusades work out well and Crusader kingdoms become a permanent fixture in the Levant; maybe they even take Egypt. This means that the mercantile powers of later Medieval Europe keep access to their overland trade routes, and the Spanish and Portuguese have little incentive to go sailing around the world.

Wouldn't the nations of Western Europe still have a reasonably large incentive to try to cut out the middle-men of the Eurasian trade? Even if the supply was strong, surely the temptation to simply go straight to the source and make a huge profit would be strong.
And if the Spanish, Portugese, et al are trying to sail around Africa, their shipbuilding technology will still be improving - eventually, I would think that somebody would decide to use the improved ships to try to sail the other direction. If nothing else, the English might very well discover North America while looking for good fishing grounds.
Of course, this might still delay the discovery by fifty years or a century, which could still be significant.

[Turhan's Bey Company]

Originally Posted by Kelly Pedersen

Wouldn't the nations of Western Europe still have a reasonably large incentive to try to cut out the middle-men of the Eurasian trade? Even if the supply was strong, surely the temptation to simply go straight to the source and make a huge profit would be strong.

They may want to, but if you put the Italians in Suez, there's no way anyone in Iberia could do it cheaper. And a westward expedition becomes even more unlikely if a wealthier and therefore more educated Europe comes up with a better estimation of the size of the world. If someone corrects the Ptolemeic calculation for the circumference of the Earth, it'll become clear that going the long way around is unprofitably long.

Originally Posted by Kelly Pedersen

Of course, this might still delay the discovery by fifty years or a century, which could still be significant.

...and which is probably all Ed needs.

[Turhan's Bey Company]

Originally Posted by Ed the Coastie

Yikes! I just realized that I need horses...or a similar beast suitable for riding.

The Welsh may not have had ships big enough to support horses across the Atlantic (though, if you wanted to fudge things in their favor a little, I doubt your players would mind), but the Chinese certainly did, and the Muslims, who had a shorter trip from Africa to Brazil, may have as well.

[Kelly Pedersen]

Originally Posted by Turhan's Bey Company

They may want to, but if you put the Italians in Suez, there's no way anyone in Iberia could do it cheaper.

Hmm. Good point - sailing across the Indian Ocean would certainly cut out most of the middlemen involved.

Originally Posted by Turhan's Bey Company

And a westward expedition becomes even more unlikely if a wealthier and therefore more educated Europe comes up with a better estimation of the size of the world. If someone corrects the Ptolemeic calculation for the circumference of the Earth, it'll become clear that going the long way around is unprofitably long.

Also true. And even if England discovers the northern route more or less on-schedule (was John Cabot/Giovanni Caboto aware of Columbus' voyages, or did he decide on the westward route independently?), the English probably won't get into the colonization business in such a big way without the Spanish to compete with, and stories of the gold of Central and South America to egg them on.

[Turhan's Bey Company]

Originally Posted by Kelly Pedersen

the English probably won't get into the colonization business in such a big way without the Spanish to compete with, and stories of the gold of Central and South America to egg them on.

My impression is that the English were in it more for the tobacco than the gold. Either way, the potential colonial situation becomes very interesting.

Assuming the English get there first, you get movement in the direction of everyone in western Europe getting into the tobacco trade, with gold as an afterthough, if it comes up at all. However, the Welsh won't die off, so there's a much more crowded landscape. You may see a situation more like India (where Europeans worked through local powers rather than colonizing the land) than historical North America. England probably has a bit of an advantage, since the "natives" speak a vaguely recognizable language, though ethnic disputes could easily raise their ugly heads. Central America and the Carribean still seem like the natural grounds for Spain and Portugal to play in, but they'll hit some very familiar problems when they make contact with Muslim Brazil.

What you probably won't get is an African slave trade. With the Welsh and Muslims firmly ensconced, there's no room for colonialists to just move in and establish large plantations, ergo no mass market for slave labor. Africa, probably, remains an even darker continent than it did for us. Edit: Oh, and mustn't forget sugar. If the Welsh don't go south of Florida and the Muslims don't leave South America, Mesoamerica and the Carribean remain to be depopulated and colonized by whoever wants sugar plantations. So there may be a slave trade, depending on the state of the true natives, but one reduced from our own history.

But, of course, this is taking us rather far afield from Ed's campaign...

[ravenfish]

Originally Posted by Turhan's Bey Company

My impression is that the English were in it more for the tobacco than the gold. Either way, the potential colonial situation becomes very interesting.

Once they found that tobacco could be profitable, yes. But, historically, they had been there for several years (not counting failed colonies) before they discovered that. The failures of the first quasipermanent English colony in modern America (Jamestown) to flourish before it settled on tobacco are almost legendary- mine for gold, grow grapes for wine, raise silkworms- it was essentially an operation in search of a reason for existing. My understanding is that their decision to try it out was mostly a matter of "Hey, it worked for Spain". If Spain doesn't get involved, someone will go there eventually, but it will take longer. Northern North America, after all, doesn't exactly look as inviting or profitable as Mexico or Peru. Remember that, even with the stunning success of Spain, it was almost 1600 before anyone off the Iberian Peninsula even really tried to colonize continental America.

[simonmark6]

The Welsh have a tendency to factionalise as soon as they possibly can on any given topic and endeavour. This has been a serious weakness when amongst stronger neighbours as it allows people to use one faction against the other.

Thus, it's highly unlikely that the Welsh would form any sort of strong empire or hegemony. They would however bring several advantages to the Native Americans a few hundred years earlier than they would otherwise have had them, plus they would have been more likely to disseminat information as the intermarried with the locals. The main things I would think they'd bring would be:
1) Metal Working and mineral resource exploitation
2) Boat building and navigation techniques
3) Boats would eventually allow for the import of horses, the Welsh would know how important they were and the Native Americans would have lots of incentive to acquire them
4) The knowledge that there were others out there: eventually Native Americans would start exploring for themselves, the dissemination of potatoes in the Thirteenth or Fourteenth centuries would have had a major impact on European Culture, maybe not huge, but it could have started the undermining of the feudal system several decades or more earlier
5) Christianity: The Welsh remained Christian even when England became paganised after the fall of Roman Rule, in fact, St. Patrick, the saint who converted Ireland was a Welshman and his followers and descendants brought Christianity back to the mianland of Britain. There is no reason to suspect that this evangelical streak would not continue and find root somewhere. This would help any colonists that come later, priests will speak Latin as well as Welsh and have a good chance of being able to communicate with any later expedition
6) Farming techniques, they'd likely cause a more sedentary life amongst the Native Americans and after the initial lowering of life expectancy, populations would pick up, later colonists might find larger but less firece populations facing them. That, coupled with more advanced weaponry and, possibly, horses, could make for interesting scenarios, having Christian Native Americans would also rob the colonies of the high moral ground, to get it back they might have to bribe a pope to declare a Crusade against the "heretics"