Elisjsha Dicken - What level of Guns(Pistols) skill?

[EskrimadorNC]

Note: This thread is NOT a political discussion about the 2nd Amendment, Constitutional Carry, whether or not CC is a good idea, etc. It is specifically about how we can use the GURPS game mechanics to simulate what happened in a real-world scenario. Please keep comments relevant to the game.

I was going to post a bunch of links for you folks to do some research, but just google "Elisjsha Dicken" and you find all of the relevant articles.

In a nutshell, this is the scenario:

• Bad guy exits restroom with Rifle @ 5:56:48 p.m.
• Elisjsha recognizes the threat, deploys his Glock 9mm pistol, posts up on a column behind cover approximate 40 yards from the target and engages.
• Elishsha fires 10 shots, 8 of which hit the bad guy.
• According to surveillance footage, the bad guy was neutralized as of 5:57:03 p.m., just 15 seconds after exiting the restroom.

So what skill level does this take in GURPS?

I'm going to make a few assumptions about the order of events from a game mechanical approach:

• Elisjsha likely had to perform a READY maneuver to draw his pistol, and maybe a MOVE maneuver or two to get to his firing position.
• I couldn't find any really specific details on his weapon, but I am going to assume it did not have a laser or any sort of optic.
• It's probably a safe bet that he was taking the ALL OUT ATTACK maneuver when shooting, was using both hands (BRACED), and may have thrown in some AIM maneuvers during the engagement.

If we go with AIM then SHOOT then AIM then SHOOT (and so on), then it takes 20 seconds to fire 10 rounds. But let's see what that looks like:

Range (40 yards): -8
AoA: +1
Accuracy: +2
Braced: +1
NET: -4 to Skill

For an 80% hit rate, you need to net out at effective skill 13, so that means you need a skill of 17 to reliably execute the above. That by itself is $HIT HOT shooting, but Elisjsha did even better than that.

If we assume that the first few seconds were spent on drawing his pistol and getting into a cover/supported position that gives him barely more than 10 seconds to take out the bad guy.

There are a few ways to do this in GURPS. Let's look at two options:

• Alternating between AIM and Double Taps (firing two shots with each attack)
• Leading with an AIM maneuver, and letting the bonuses carry to subsequent shots per the "Follow-Up Shots" rule on page 14 of GURPS: Tactical Shooting

So here is the breakdown if we alternate between AIM maneuvers and Double Taps:

Range (40 yards): -8
Recoil: -2 (for both shots to hit)
AoA: +1
Accuracy: +2
Braced: +1
NET: -6 to Skill

Now, technically we can probably go with a NET skill of 12 instead of 13 because the first round of your controlled pairs will hit more reliably than your second, which should even out.

With this approach, you need an 18 skill to do this reliably. GURPS put that level as "best of the best of trained special operators." Indeed, most of the SF/SEAL units I saw go through the JRTC MOUT course at Ft. Polk would be REALLY hard pressed to shoot that well.

The second option, which is the more likely, is using the Follow-up Shot rule so the Accuracy bonus carries over to each subsequent shot without needing further AIM maneuvers.

Range (40 yards): -8
AoA: +1
Accuracy: +2
Braced: +1
NET: -4 to Skill

So we are back down to needing a 17 to be able to pull that off.

Let me know what you all think, or if I missed anything important.

But no matter how you skin the cat, that dude was likely a combination of crazy good AND crazy lucky.

[Varyon]

I was actually having a discussion with another user over PM's about this, as I wasn't certain if posting a thread would be appropriate. I actually worked out that, if he Aimed between attacks but fired at RoF 3 for the first three attacks (and RoF 1 for the last, as his magazine was empty at that point), he could get away with final effective skill 14 and have a decent chance of landing the total of 8 hits. Personally, I feel All Out Attack should be +2 to hit (as it is in the "On Target" Pyramid article*), so that's a net -3 to hit, calling for around skill 17 - or skill 16 if he's practiced enough with that weapon (and/or personalized it enough) to have Weapon Bond.

*I may see how this would work out using those rules, which allow for higher bonuses than +Acc from a single Aim, which may mean his skill doesn't need to be quite as high.

[sir_pudding]

"Many more people would have died last night if not for a responsible armed citizen that took action very quickly within the first two minutes of the shooting," Greenwood Police Chief James Ison said

Two minutes>15 seconds

[EskrimadorNC]

Originally Posted by sir_pudding

"Many more people would have died last night if not for a responsible armed citizen that took action very quickly within the first two minutes of the shooting," Greenwood Police Chief James Ison said

Two minutes>15 seconds

Yup, the initial report was 2 minutes, but the police chief issued a correction.

"Chief Ison initially told reporters that the suspect opened fire at 5:56 p.m. and that Mr. Dicken confronted him at 5:57 p.m., less than two minutes later.

“The surveillance video shows Sapirman exited the restroom at 5:56:48 p.m. He was neutralized by Dicken at 5:57:03 p.m,” Chief Ison said in his statement. “This error was simply a result of misreading notes during the conference. I feel the need to correct this immediately. Thank you.”

<Moderator> Removed Current Event Link</Moderator>

[sjard]

<Moderator>
Too current, and part of an overall hotbutton topic nationwide.

Closed.
</Moderator>