06132020, 11:14 AM  #21  
Join Date: May 2020

Re: Playing With Different Dice
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06132020, 11:25 AM  #22  
Join Date: May 2020

Re: Playing With Different Dice
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06132020, 12:09 PM  #23  
Join Date: May 2020

Re: Playing With Different Dice
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Just to offer a different take on who may be playing... My group has 4 engineers in it, 3 of which have doctorates. A couple of them independently worked out the heat transfer of lava in a cave they where in "just to see if it was possible" because they where curious. None of these girls and guys are "winging it" not knowing the probability of a positive outcome. A couple of the others in the group can barely use a computer (I am not being hyperbolic), much less come to some sort of intuition on probabilities from rolling a few dice a hundred times over the course of weeks (nor do I think anyone could). I dont mean to be argumentative, I appreciate your post, just wanted to give a different perspective. It can just be easy to begin thinking everyone sees the world the same way we do. It's interesting you mentioned the bell curve. From my understanding there are actually many things related to skill that do not follow the bell curve. Job performance being one that comes to mind. I think this might again be a place where intuition isn't entirely accurate. On this last point though, I admittedly have not looked up research papers on myself, Im going off of second hand reports. Anyways, thanks for your input! 

06132020, 12:23 PM  #24 
Night Watchman
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: Cambridge, UK

Re: Playing With Different Dice
IME, what mathematicians are doing when they hesitate is working out a rough answer.
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06132020, 12:49 PM  #25 
Hero of Democracy
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: far from the ocean

Re: Playing With Different Dice
The rule of 16 is probably best made into the rule of 18, 19, or 20.
I'm curious what critical hit scheme you plan to use? ******************************************* On the subject of 3d6 probabilities, I just work with the following numbers: 10 is 50% hit. +/2 from 10 is a 25/75 split +/4 from 10 is a 10/90 split so 50, 25, and 10 are the main numbers I remember. They are simple enough. If you want to extend it to include 5/95 for 16 and 4, you can, but its rare enough that I rarely bother, and I had to look up what the numbers were.
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