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Old 10-04-2021, 07:20 AM   #21
Fred Brackin
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Default Re: First TL-9 items

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom Mazanec View Post
And the fastest technology path in UltraTech gave 2020 as the date.
......and some items wth stats that UT would make TL9 were probably available then. Other things that UT has as TL9 may never show up. That truck bed fission power generator might be one of them.
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Old 10-04-2021, 07:31 AM   #22
Opellulo
 
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Default Re: First TL-9 items

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Originally Posted by Farmer View Post
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00408-1
We already have reactors running at 100 million degrees.
"with deuterium and tritium" it's like in the title, and that's the problem because the ending result it's not the intended "Clean" Fusion Power.
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AI already exists as far more than clever search engines. Well short of what we consider cognition, but more than your 8 year old article suggests.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/tomtaul...h=31b499ed5a3c
My daily work is with Machine Learning, and this article is not unlike the tens i receive daily on my LinkedIn feed. Development is going fast sure, but in a specific direction that's not even "dumb AI" but simply "refined algorithm to better prey on your credit card". There are probably out there different approaches and researches for something different but, well "still not there"
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The technology already exists and is continuing trials.
In open road, without supervision, paid by customer and sold as "here" because the entire business model of some idiotic twitter troll is that of constantly feed its companies with fresh venture capital.
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VR and AR exist. The issue is indeed application, particularly retrofitting it to existing applications. That said, it very much exists and is used in industry and medicine and other fields.
Facebook and Epic continuously spew out "metaverse" nonsense because their wet dream is streaming advertisement on your eyeballs 24/7. Still a technology searching for a purpose.
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Maglevs have been operating since 1993 and 3 new ones created in 2016-2017. Expensive, but apparently not prohiibitively.
How may of these tracks are more than a test or a "political show-off projects"? (like the Shangai maglev).
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So not everything is live and available now, but some is close. And there's more operational and close to reality than your list suggests.
It's matter of MONTHS that one of those creepy robotic dogs will be unleashed against immigrant and celebrated as an effective way of "border control".

Curious how the only TL9 things we have are the ones against which decades of Cyberpunk warned us against...
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Old 10-04-2021, 07:59 AM   #23
Emerikol
 
Join Date: May 2021
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Default Re: First TL-9 items

I actually went back and checked the dates on this thread to make sure it was not a necro.

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Originally Posted by Opellulo View Post
Most of the candidate technologies pointed in this topic are either "not yet there" or blatant lies for the sake of venture capital.

- Fusion Power: has an insurmountable problem to overcome, we can't reach (so imagine maintain) the million degrees temperature necessary to fuse hydrogen, so all the current reactors uses either deuterium or tritium, and the results are way different: https://thebulletin.org/2017/04/fusi...cked-up-to-be/
Agree fusion power is not there yet.

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Originally Posted by Opellulo View Post
- Self driving cars: good joke
Really? Only America's obsession with safety and our independent streak are stopping this from already being true. We have self driving cars. They work. They've yet to make them safe enough for American comfort. If we had a separate self-driving car road network for hauling crap it would already be a reality. This is inches from becoming reality and is more our psyche than anything else.


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Originally Posted by Opellulo View Post
- IA: Mr Hofstadter wants to have a chat with you: https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine...-think/309529/ (yes the article is a bit old but it well explains when we had the split between "True IA" and "IA that's just a quick search engine"
I think the AI that we think of is not there (e.g. HAL 9000 or Asimov's robots). Machine learning though is making massive strides everywhere and even humdrum boring companies have teams implementing it. Trust me I know this for a fact.

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Originally Posted by Opellulo View Post
- CRISPR gene editing: maybe it's the only true TL9 tech we reached, it's application are wide and its effects evident (thanks mRMA vaccines) and now a vaccine for malaria is in research, we'll see...
I admit I don't know as much about genes as some. But your statement seems plausible.


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Originally Posted by Opellulo View Post
- Smart VR glasses: are they really TL9? Or just an overhyped '90s idea that nobody really wants or have use for?
I think the real application here is military combat information. As a platoon leader you know where every one of your men is at at any given moment and whether they are down or still fighting. It may not be widely deployed in our military (mainly due to cost) but the technology is there.

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Originally Posted by Opellulo View Post
- 5G mobile: it's infrastructure, not an "item" and it's yet to be adopted BUT it has potential.
Maybe I'm misunderstanding what you mean by 5G but as I understand the term it is in wide use right now in many major cities across America.


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Originally Posted by Opellulo View Post
- MagLev Trains: they work, they are amazing but they are also prohibitively expensive to maintain.

- Electric planes: maybe in few years

- Drones: this is tricky... Apparently someone thought that it was a good idea to arm a drone and let it go killing without human supervision. So yes probably the only operational TL9 item we got is also the worst one.
Probably with you on these though I thought drones were piloted by humans at this stage. Not doubting you just something I thought.
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Old 10-04-2021, 08:27 AM   #24
Fred Brackin
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Default Re: First TL-9 items

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Originally Posted by Emerikol View Post

I thought drones were piloted by humans at this stage.
Drones like the definitely TL "Predator" are remote piloted with little or no onboard AI. Larger unmanned vehicles like Global Hawk (also TL8) do take off, navigate and land through onboard AI.

Global Hawk might be about as smart as a bumblebee except for the part about finding and gathering pollen.
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Old 10-04-2021, 08:43 AM   #25
DemiBenson
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
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Default Re: First TL-9 items

Chemical rocket engines. Between the rotating detonation engine, and the self-consuming engine (consumes the tankage as the engine climbs up), were eking out those last few percentages of maximum theoretical performance.
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Old 10-04-2021, 09:57 AM   #26
clu2415
 
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Default Re: First TL-9 items

Laser point defense weapons have been deployed on naval ships.
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Old 10-04-2021, 11:40 AM   #27
Willy
 
Join Date: Dec 2020
Default Re: First TL-9 items

As for Biotech, last week I checked how Biontech is doing in the field for which the company was founded to cure cancer. Even while working on Covid they made some good results lately in a lab experiment, injected artificial RNA got the healthy cells to produce enough antibodys to destroy the cancer cells completely. I guess that technique is solid TL 9.

Vaccines using the same method for several diseases are in development but still in a very early project phase.

As for laser defense weapons, the US plan to deploy in the next time some repurposed IFV ( LAV 25 ? ) instead troops and conventional weapons this one cary a laser to protect friendly forces against drones. that is the smallest working application for lasers I know right now in the military.

VR and AR are now making steps forward, they are very useful in training people for maintainance dutys in for example combat jets. It is far cheaper to learn first steps this way and in a simulator than using the real stuff from the beginning. Also some procedures can be taught which normaly cant due to safety reasons.

AR is actually also tried in some military night vision equipment, with mixed success, some say the artificial outlining of equipment and forces helps other call it distracting - not to mention the computer power needed ( roughly the same level as a PS 4 ! ) makes it a heavy energy hog.

By the way you really dont need expensive nightvision gear anymore, a recent scientific research showed a interesting result. Doting glasses with a ultra thin cover of gallium arsenic, resultes in this coating transforming light in the normally invisible spectrum ( infrared lenght ) into visible light, in the end you could see at night quite well without carrying a heavy and expensive gear which needs batterys and a lot of maintannace, not to mention the reduced field of view. In daylight the effect is there but to weak to distract you, in fact you could wear that thing 24/7 and see always good enough to act accordingly.
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Old 10-04-2021, 11:53 AM   #28
Varyon
 
Join Date: Jun 2013
Default Re: First TL-9 items

Quote:
Originally Posted by Opellulo View Post
Facebook and Epic continuously spew out "metaverse" nonsense because their wet dream is streaming advertisement on your eyeballs 24/7. Still a technology searching for a purpose.
AR with Facial Recognition could have some use for security, and there's a lot of VR games out now, but yeah, currently it's more likely to be an ad delivery system.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Opellulo View Post
It's matter of MONTHS that one of those creepy robotic dogs will be unleashed against immigrant and celebrated as an effective way of "border control".
Not going to get into the politics of it, but if they do send out BigDogs or similar to the border, I doubt "celebrated" will be an appropriate description of the response.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Opellulo View Post
Curious how the only TL9 things we have are the ones against which decades of Cyberpunk warned us against...
A lot of authors, like Gibson, wrote what they did because they saw the "writing on the wall," as it were.
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Old 10-04-2021, 12:38 PM   #29
Fred Brackin
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Default Re: First TL-9 items

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Originally Posted by clu2415 View Post
Laser point defense weapons have been deployed on naval ships.
To my knowledge there was one laser weapon deployed on one ship and that ship has now been taken out of service and the laser sent back to the labs.

So neither "weapons" nor "ships" in the plural and more of a past tense on "deployed" than most people would assume from the phrasing.
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Old 10-04-2021, 02:49 PM   #30
clu2415
 
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Default Re: First TL-9 items

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Originally Posted by Fred Brackin View Post
To my knowledge there was one laser weapon deployed on one ship and that ship has now been taken out of service and the laser sent back to the labs.

So neither "weapons" nor "ships" in the plural and more of a past tense on "deployed" than most people would assume from the phrasing.
Ah. I misremembered. It was declared operational on board the USS Ponce, meaning the captain was allowed to use it in defense of the ship. Its successor (maximum power 60kW) was delivered to the US Navy in 2021 to be installed on the USS Arleigh Burke.
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