New Reality Seeds

[Gedrin]

Originally Posted by tshiggins

I think the only people who would actively resist the southern migration -- and the mobilization of society to deal with it -- would consist of hard-core racists and secessionists.

I think you underestimate the resistance of the people who will be looking at starving to death.

[Gedrin]

Originally Posted by PTTG

The winner of the volcano setting has got to be the British Empire.

So they'd probably kill Gandhi. The end result is Britain relocating to the coast of the Indian Ocean, fully anticipating to return to the British Isles.

The freezing of the mosquito population might be a vast blessing, too.

Problem is that they can't relocate their infrastructure to India, at least not without decades of work. Refineries, factories, ect... To find the "winner" you need an industrialized power that remains in the temperate zone. The US is the best candidate, due to latitude and access to arable land, providing they handle their refugee crisis.

Has anyone proposed the obvious solution of "conquer Mexico"? It seems like an easier solution than starting another civil war. Then again, if there's transport and enough arable land, there's no reason for a mass migration. Heck, maybe Mexico is the big winner with an economic agribusiness boom. The crisis might wind up with an integrated agricultural belt from Mexico to Oklahoma feeding those that choose to stay in the colder areas. (Where things like tractors are made at the start of the crisis.)

The nature of the crisis might derail the effects that brought about the Dust Bowl as well. If both hit...bad news.

Another nation that might be poised to take advantage of the crisis is Japan. 1930's Japan is resource starved and already knows it before the crisis hits. They're prepping to invade a variety of places, and their regional competitors are going to get flattened by the climate shift. They are already prepared for expansion and conquest when the crisis hits, so they have options, and fewer people prepared and able to counter them. Japan has the food related challenges of the other industrialized nations, but it's ready before hand.

[Astromancer]

Originally Posted by PTTG

The winner of the volcano setting has got to be the British Empire.

So they'd probably kill Gandhi. The end result is Britain relocating to the coast of the Indian Ocean, fully anticipating to return to the British Isles.

The freezing of the mosquito population might be a vast blessing, too.

Britain does keep it's Empire in my basic senario, or at least the Empire keeps the British. India become one half of the British Empire, the Southern Union becomes the other half. The French are in North Africa, Germany and the Russians got snowed out. The Arabs got taken over by the French in a seiries of bitter wars. China is a mess.

[Astromancer]

Originally Posted by Gedrin

Another nation that might be poised to take advantage of the crisis is Japan. 1930's Japan is resource starved and already knows it before the crisis hits. They're prepping to invade a variety of places, and their regional competitors are going to get flattened by the climate shift. They are already prepared for expansion and conquest when the crisis hits, so they have options, and fewer people prepared and able to counter them. Japan has the food related challenges of the other industrialized nations, but it's ready before hand.

Japan wouldn't be able to moblise quick enough IMHO. But a Japanese coastal imperium in Southern China might work.

[johndallman]

Originally Posted by Astromancer

Japan wouldn't be able to moblise quick enough IMHO. But a Japanese coastal imperium in Southern China might work.

Indonesia is the place for them. Their ability to take it vastly outweighs the Netherlands' ability to defend it.

[scc]

The Japanese conquest of China was either already underway in the 1930's or was about to kick off, what's going to change here is that no one is going to try and STOP them, and if the US falls apart their probably NOT going to make the moves that ultimately got people upset at them

[Gedrin]

Originally Posted by scc

The Japanese conquest of China was either already underway in the 1930's or was about to kick off, what's going to change here is that no one is going to try and STOP them, and if the US falls apart their probably NOT going to make the moves that ultimately got people upset at them

That was my thought. They're within a year of invading Manchuria on the base timeline. The Republic of China will be in less of a position to sustain opposition, and frankly, starvation is only going to moderately increase resistance compared to the original timeline's brutality.

I'd think the biggest catch would be supplying the initial invasions with food. Certainly the Japanese people would be willing to endure hardship to sustain a victory, but until conquered provinces begin producing food, the invasion supply lines are vital (and tempting) targets.

All in all I think the following are most reasonable:

I suspect England would prefer to use commerce, tech and integration as it's methods, but will be pushed toward military force in some regions. Given the need for a more "old school Empire", you might get Churchill back into power a few years earlier.

French colonies will be a mixed bag, but I suspect chaos and soundly suppressed revolutionary movements. However, I figure some of the colonies will break free because...

Europe catches fire. Pillage, burn, revolution, mayhem, Russians. Total nightmare.

Russia, starving more than normal, essentially disintegrates, likely clawing a few neighbors down on the way, as is traditional. However, they do manage to export communism effectively to everywhere, as industrial governments in crisis try to manage the limited food resources.

The US begins to assimilate Mexico, if only economically, but probably with a smile and cash in one hand and the other hand patting a cannon. Integrated transport and food networks, probable military basing.

Imperial Japanese expansion throughout their region. If the initial invasions go well, they're heading toward being the dominant regional power for a few decades. I don't see that as sustainable long term, but for a while, sure.

Basket case countries in newly prosperous climes remain basket cases. Extra cash has never really lead to good governance or resource management. Stronger nations will attempt to dominate the food production in order to make it more secure.


This is all very interesting, but I'd be even more interested in the 60 years later scenario when the climate is recovering. Pop drop. Plentiful food. Open resources. Room to grow. You've got all the makings of a second renaissance (with volcano standing in for plague this time), but governments have been in survival mode for 2 generations. Food and resources are rationed and controlled, and I see nothing in history that leads me to believe that kind of power is released freely.

[Astromancer]

Originally Posted by johndallman

Indonesia is the place for them. Their ability to take it vastly outweighs the Netherlands' ability to defend it.

Interesting, and the Southern Union might grab off other pieces of the Dutch East Indies. This could be a constant low-level conflict, a cold war, a bitter truce, or the basis of an alliance.

Coolly playable John Dallman.

[Astromancer]

Originally Posted by scc

The Japanese conquest of China was either already underway in the 1930's or was about to kick off, what's going to change here is that no one is going to try and STOP them, and if the US falls apart their probably NOT going to make the moves that ultimately got people upset at them

Which is why I saw them holding on to chunks of China's Southern coast.

The main limit on Japanese expansion in this scenario is the collapse of both Japanese trade and agriculture. Japan was driven to expand by it's fragility.

[Astromancer]

Originally Posted by Gedrin

That was my thought. They're within a year of invading Manchuria on the base timeline. The Republic of China will be in less of a position to sustain opposition, and frankly, starvation is only going to moderately increase resistance compared to the original timeline's brutality.

I'd think the biggest catch would be supplying the initial invasions with food. Certainly the Japanese people would be willing to endure hardship to sustain a victory, but until conquered provinces begin producing food, the invasion supply lines are vital (and tempting) targets.

This makes sense. Maybe the Japanese move south to take easier targets like French Indochina and the Dutch East Indies.

All in all I think the following are most reasonable:

I suspect England would prefer to use commerce, tech and integration as it's methods, but will be pushed toward military force in some regions. Given the need for a more "old school Empire", you might get Churchill back into power a few years earlier.

Sounds like sense.

French colonies will be a mixed bag, but I suspect chaos and soundly suppressed revolutionary movements. However, I figure some of the colonies will break free because...

Myself, I recycled an idea from an old supers game and had the French cross the Mediterranian Sea to the colony in Algeria and then take all of North Africa, remembering to not tick off the Brits in Egypt. Increased rains provide the food supply.

Europe catches fire. Pillage, burn, revolution, mayhem, Russians. Total nightmare.

Russia, starving more than normal, essentially disintegrates, likely clawing a few neighbors down on the way, as is traditional. However, they do manage to export communism effectively to everywhere, as industrial governments in crisis try to manage the limited food resources.

Agreed. Lack of food in societies already under brutal stress.

The US begins to assimilate Mexico, if only economically, but probably with a smile and cash in one hand and the other hand patting a cannon. Integrated transport and food networks, probable military basing.

Roosevelt was very respectful of Latin America. Economically, these areas were already assimilated. FDR would use the gentle but firm touch.

Imperial Japanese expansion throughout their region. If the initial invasions go well, they're heading toward being the dominant regional power for a few decades. I don't see that as sustainable long term, but for a while, sure.

Basket case countries in newly prosperous climes remain basket cases. Extra cash has never really lead to good governance or resource management. Stronger nations will attempt to dominate the food production in order to make it more secure.

This makes sense.

This is all very interesting, but I'd be even more interested in the 60 years later scenario when the climate is recovering. Pop drop. Plentiful food. Open resources. Room to grow. You've got all the makings of a second renaissance (with volcano standing in for plague this time), but governments have been in survival mode for 2 generations. Food and resources are rationed and controlled, and I see nothing in history that leads me to believe that kind of power is released freely.

The basic idea of this setting is that the climate started shifting back around the year 2000AD. We are now in a climatic regime much like the early 20th century. The USA is on the edge of TL8, and the world is about to take off.