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Old 08-01-2018, 01:39 AM   #1
farbror
 
Join Date: Jun 2018
Default ST13, DX11 or ST11, DX13 ???

ST13, DX11 or ST11, DX13 ???

This was one of the questions back in the days. I did a quick simulation on the average damage delivered by the two types of characters and the results where interesting:

ST13 DX11: mean damage = 5.2 (SD = 4.8)


ST11 DX13: mean damage = 5.2 (SD = 3.4)

So I assume that a more dexterous character would be more deadly due to the chance to hit first
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Old 08-01-2018, 01:41 AM   #2
Wayne
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Geelong, Australia
Default Re: ST13, DX11 or ST11, DX13 ???

Go with DX every time
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Old 08-01-2018, 01:56 AM   #3
farbror
 
Join Date: Jun 2018
Default Re: ST13, DX11 or ST11, DX13 ???

Quote:
Originally Posted by Wayne View Post
Go with DX every time
Yup. That was established by experience. Now it has been "proven"
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Old 08-01-2018, 03:31 AM   #4
Chris Rice
 
Join Date: Dec 2017
Location: London Uk, but originally from Scotland
Default Re: ST13, DX11 or ST11, DX13 ???

No. There's a lot more to it than that. One complicating factor is armour; if you're facing a heavily armoured foe, ST becomes more important and you'll need to do more damage to overcome it. In a situation like that, the stronger warrior has the advantage because although the higher DX character will hit more often, many hits will be ineffective.

Sure, when the two fighters mentioned only face each other the higher DX has the advantage, but how often will that happen in the depths of the Labyrinth?

Don't rule out ST!
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Old 08-01-2018, 03:58 AM   #5
RobW
 
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Default Re: ST13, DX11 or ST11, DX13 ???

Re Chris's point, Try a ST10 DX14 with chain and small shield against unarmoured ST9 DX15 and ST13 DX11. The 13 st will do better, although the armoured fig might still win most the time
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Old 08-01-2018, 04:44 AM   #6
Jim Kane
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Join Date: Mar 2018
Default Re: ST13, DX11 or ST11, DX13 ???

+1 Chris' comment.

Always test a theory:
  • In the isolation of the Melee Arena, AND
  • Down in the Labyrinth...where it *counts*

It's the equivalent of Laboratory Testing AND Field Testing for TFT.

JK
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Old 08-01-2018, 12:48 PM   #7
Skarg
 
Join Date: May 2015
Default Re: ST13, DX11 or ST11, DX13 ???

ST 13 DX 11 tends to top the basic Melee duel statistics, followed by ST 12 DX 12, followed by ST 11 DX 13. (https://sites.google.com/site/fuhrma...evealtoprivals)

One reason is the affects of injury, particularly the odds of doing 8 damage and knocking your foe down (and for a ST 11 opponent, also dropping their DX by 3 for being down to ST 3 or less).

But in a campaign and in situations other than basic 32-point Melee duels, there are of course many others factors.
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Old 08-03-2018, 02:08 PM   #8
red2
 
Join Date: Mar 2018
Default Re: ST13, DX11 or ST11, DX13 ???

Doing the math on Melee battles can ruin the fun since everyone on their own should figure out that for example a ST16 DX8 guy is going to do really bad. That said, I wrote a simulator that can pit two figures against each other so by running it a bunch of times you can estimate the odds of who will win, if they just stand there and exchange blows. It is probably essentially the same as what Skarg linked to.

Guy A: ST13 DX11, small shield (-1), and one hand bastard sword (2+1)

Guy B: ST11 DX13, small shield (-1), and short sword (2-1)

After 200 runs, Guy A beats Guy B 48% of the time, so pretty close. Note I am ruling out pole weapons so no charge attacks/defend which would change things considerably.

If Guy A decides to use his bastard sword two handed (3-2), and get rid of the shield, he beats Guy B only 44% of the time (200 battles simulated) so maybe he makes things slightly worse for himself.

If Guy A, still using his sword two handed, gets chainmail armor, his odds of winning drop to 40%. Plus he moves much slower.

Another thing I found useful for planning battles for players is to figure out the average number of turns it will take to kill/knock unconscious the other guy. So expanding on Farbror’s original example, original Guy A has a 62.4% chance of hitting Guy B. His average damage PER HIT will be 7 (7 for rolling two dice +1 for the weapon but -1 for his opponent’s shield). That works out to be an average amount of damage on B PER TURN of 0.624*7 = 4.32. B has to take 10 points of damage to be unconscious, so on average it will take 10/4.32 = 2.29 turns for A to defeat B.

Do the same thing to see how many turns on average it takes B to defeat A, and you get 2.87. BUT B always strikes first so in the end I guess it makes sense B might have a slight advantage. This also leaves out the effects of 8 or more hits etc like Skarg mentioned. Defending, left hand dagger, pole weapons, missile and thrown weapons, interesting terrain complicate everything which of course is how it should be. Sorry in advance for any math errors.
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Old 08-03-2018, 02:29 PM   #9
Kirk
 
Join Date: Feb 2018
Default Re: ST13, DX11 or ST11, DX13 ???

This type of analysis if fun and is what got me started understanding the bell curve when I was just turning 18.

Don't forget that ST also lets you take more hits from whatever sources, be they swords, random traps or falls, etc. and allow doing things that stronger people can do, like carrying more rations or gear or treasure.

And where a DX 11 guy falls on the short side of the probability curve normally, he is helped much more by small additions to his DX, such as facing, prone, height advantage, etc. that do not aid the DX 13 character quite as much, being nearer the top of the curve, making his attacks more deadly overall if these small DX adds can be had.
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Old 08-03-2018, 02:31 PM   #10
Shostak
 
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Location: New England
Default Re: ST13, DX11 or ST11, DX13 ???

Did your 200 combats ever include having the stronger character shield rush, or was it always just hacking away?
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