Setting Jam: Hyperbolic Trajectory

[ravenfish]

Originally Posted by whswhs

* No use of oral contraceptives, on three grounds: they're excreted into the water and mess up fertility in many animal species, they alter mate selection preferences in humans, and they're historically associated with a fertility crash that caused massive economic disruption and evoked fears of human extinction

So (assuming they live in a universe that doesn't have unlimited available resources), is the idea that there's regular bouts of war/plague/famine whenever the population begins to grow too far above capacity, or do they just use lots of condoms?

[Anthony]

Originally Posted by ravenfish

So (assuming they live in a universe that doesn't have unlimited available resources), is the idea that there's regular bouts of war/plague/famine whenever the population begins to grow too far above capacity, or do they just use lots of condoms?

Birth control isn't why modern economies are below replacement rate, the problem is that children have a very poor return on investment in a modern economy. For most of human history children went from a resource drain to an asset in around ten years, in a modern economy it's more like thirty years to reach neutral and possibly never for being a net asset.

[whswhs]

Originally Posted by ravenfish

So (assuming they live in a universe that doesn't have unlimited available resources), is the idea that there's regular bouts of war/plague/famine whenever the population begins to grow too far above capacity, or do they just use lots of condoms?

Delayed marriage, and chastity till marriage. Condoms, yes, but also diaphragms, sponges, and cervical caps, and also sexual activities that don't impregnate. There's also Fischer's historical generalization that periods when the purchasing power of currency is relatively stable have low illegitimacy rate; perhaps they know how to avoid currency depreciation, whether through strict banking regulation or simply letting banks that issue too many notes suffer from runs.

[ravenfish]

Originally Posted by whswhs

Delayed marriage, and chastity till marriage. Condoms, yes, but also diaphragms, sponges, and cervical caps, and also sexual activities that don't impregnate. There's also Fischer's historical generalization that periods when the purchasing power of currency is relatively stable have low illegitimacy rate; perhaps they know how to avoid currency depreciation, whether through strict banking regulation or simply letting banks that issue too many notes suffer from runs.

Erm... is the second half of this a new topic, or is it a continuation of the first half in a series of euphemisms? I confess that I honestly can't tell.

[whswhs]

Originally Posted by ravenfish

Erm... is the second half of this a new topic, or is it a continuation of the first half in a series of euphemisms? I confess that I honestly can't tell.

The purchasing power of money decreases when there is more money pursuing the same quantity of goods and services. If you have strict regulation of the issue of money, you might avoid that; if banks that issue too many banknotes ("paper money") face runs and go bankrupt, natural selection favors the cautious banks and the cautious bank customers, which may also work to stabilize the purchasing power of banknotes. If Fischer is accurate about stable purchasing power going with minimal illegitimacy, this may be relevant.

[ravenfish]

Originally Posted by whswhs

The purchasing power of money decreases when there is more money pursuing the same quantity of goods and services. If you have strict regulation of the issue of money, you might avoid that; if banks that issue too many banknotes ("paper money") face runs and go bankrupt, natural selection favors the cautious banks and the cautious bank customers, which may also work to stabilize the purchasing power of banknotes. If Fischer is accurate about stable purchasing power going with minimal illegitimacy, this may be relevant.

I grant that, I'm just trying to work out if we've actually suddenly started talking about fiscal policy or if we're using it as a metaphor for reproduction.

[Anthony]

Originally Posted by whswhs

There's also Fischer's historical generalization that periods when the purchasing power of currency is relatively stable have low illegitimacy rate.

This is almost certainly just "social stability is associated with low illegitimacy, and economic problems are one cause of social instability".

[whswhs]

Originally Posted by Anthony

This is almost certainly just "social stability is associated with low illegitimacy, and economic problems are one cause of social instability".

I don't have a theory of why this observation might be the case. I'm not sure your explanation is right, but I don't see any obvious argument against it.

But is it clear that a stable purchasing power of money is a problem-free state? It sometimes seems as if governments now all aim at a steady ongoing rate of inflation as a policy goal. Milton Friedman even advocated it, I believe.

[Anthony]

Originally Posted by whswhs

But is it clear that a stable purchasing power of money is a problem-free state? It sometimes seems as if governments now all aim at a steady ongoing rate of inflation as a policy goal. Milton Friedman even advocated it, I believe.

A low but positive rate of inflation appears to be optimal, but Fischer was probably not talking about zero inflation, as that's historically almost nonexistent (and thus not practical to study), but rather the difference between low and high inflation.

[PTTG]

Originally Posted by ericthered

How do people get stuff off of earth into space?

Slings. While space elevators turned out to be impractical, high-tensile materials enabled orbital tethers hundreds of kilometers long to dive deep into the atmosphere. High-speed aircraft can then rendezvous with the relatively slow and accessible tether tip, before being swung up into orbit. Meanwhile, electrodynamic thrusters re-boost the tethers to gain altitude.

There is a project to build an orbital ring, which allows space-elevator-like performance without the need for supermaterials, but it's been floundering for decades after early lunar prototypes proved successful.