Early and Late TL9

[the-red-scare]

As we’ve seen which technologies have advanced since 4e came out and which haven’t, and as the transition to TL9 looms ever closer, it might be useful to divide the catalogue of future tech into two buckets:

Early TL9 might be considered pre-2050ish, all the stuff we have prototypes for now. Autonomous vehicles are probably early TL9.

Late TL9 would be anything that’s listed as TL9 but isn’t even in serious development at this time. Fusion rockets, for example, are probably late TL9.

Which Ultra-Tech and related items do you think fits into each half of TL9?

[weby]

It Depends. Basically if you want a listing based on Gurps TL 9 or the TL 8+1 in Gurps terms that we seem to be heading to.

I am replying based on our world not Gurps TL 9 but in terms of the tech in UT. So when I use 8+1 I mean our world and when 9 Gurps UT.

As there are so many areas I will start with .. hmm.. lets say Vehicles as they are fun.

Slidewalks: Replacing roads and sidewalks: Likely not in TL 8+1 at least as even airports seem to have less and less of them.

Self-Driving Vehicles: Early TL 8+1.

Mag-Lev Subway and commuter trains: Likely not in early TL 8+1 at least as the trials have not caused any real world interest.

Super Airships: Likely not in TL 8+1 at least.

Ballistic Liners: This one is more difficult, as due to noise and such things Supersonic transportation is hard to make widely available except for intercontinental trips. None of the current candidates seem to be likely solutions so earliest mid TL 8+1, likely late TL 8+1 or never.

Transcontinental Tunnels: We will see more and more tunnels as costs get lower, but the ramp up will be slow. And the problems with air pressure in evacuated tunnels is a big one..

Wheeled ATV: maybe if SpaceX gets to Mars they will have something similar to that, but there you would not need the high pressure support. So in the form given in UT: likely never. So TL 9, not our world. Similar: Maybe in middle TL 8+1

Smart Car as given with a fuel cell is likely never going to be a primary type vehicle. So TL 9, not our world.

Air Car : This is one of those.. Basically because of the need to move a lot of air causes and lot of sound, so at least as described in UT, no. So TL 9, not our world. But possibility of some other form of flying car: not out of question at late TL 8+1. Likely in that case so that when you get to the highway, there will be takeoff ramps where you can fold out wings and then take off and then land at destination or some similar system.

Light Battle Tank: There will be more light combat vehicles, but more and more of such seem to be going towards wheeled operation from tracked. Also as a detail the write up says it will have a TL 10 laser at TL 9. Also the current experiences of having only 2 crew in a fighting vehicle are not good, so the specific vehicle is likely TL 9, not our world.

Armored Hovercraft: Hovercraft seem to not be used much by militaries except for landings and there are are really no benefits over other designs and several disadvantages. so the vehicle is likely TL 9, not our world.

Hover Jeep: Yes, there are small hovercraft and there will be but it is not a common vehicle. Also the electric version will be earliest late TL 8+1 due to power requirements of hovercraft and it will be a niche vehicle.

Aquasled (TL9): Thsse exist, so they are basically tech earlier than TL 8+1, but the 8 hour duration version, yeah can likely be early TL 8+1

Deep-Sea Minisub; The minisubs exist. But the world will have to change a lot for a nuclear version to be acceptable. So either a secret military one or TL 9 and not our world

Supercav Minisub: Well, there are supercavitating torpedoes and Darpa is researching it for submarines, so this might be early TL 8+1

Tilt-Rotor Transport/Tactical Tilt-Rotor: The technology exists at late TL 8 and is fully viable, but problematic in that as you need to make the proptors smaller than helicopter rotors they need to spin at higher RPM, so the downwash will be heavier and the machinery is more complex requiring more maintenance. So military versions will likely exist in TL 8+1 too, but civilian versions if they come likely more towards late TL 8+1 as there is some future refinement.

Utility Vertol: Same problems as the air car described earlier. So may come as a military vehicle, but a tiltrotor or helicopter is more likely even in that role. So likely TL 9, not our world.


Dragonfly: this type of craft exist today so TL 8 not TL 9. Though in future they will be of course more efficient.

Hand Thruster/Thruster Pack: Thruster packs exist today and hand thrusters could be made easily, so TL 8 not TL 9. Though in future they will be of course more efficient.

Helipack: Some sort of thing like this, sure, but 2 of 3 foot wide fans is a bit low for the expected mass meaning it will most likely not be the "elatively
quiet power plant" given in UT. But overall possible at early TL 8+1, but likely not in wide use.

Life Pod: Technically possible at early TL 8+1, but likely there will not be a need for such until space industry is well established as before that the rescue pod will likely be the capsule/lifter that you got to orbit with so likely middle/late TL 8+1 in actual use.

[Fred Brackin]

Originally Posted by weby

It

Super Airships: Likely not in TL 8+1 at least.

.

Probably not ever. The drag associated with LTAs makes them always slower at point A to B travel.

the only real advantage is that they can remain airborne with low energy costs while at low speed. So far drones are filling this niche without noticeable trouble. Maybe, just maybe at some far future date there could be extremely large airships built for pleasure cruises. Purely recreational use is difficult to predict.

[weby]

Next power:

Power cells: As described: will require much development in super capacitors or similar. In early TL 8+1 at least we will most likely see Secondary Batteries as the primary energy storage method. Late TL 8+1, who knows what we will have by then.

Fission Generators: Technically possible today , so definitely technically possible at early TL 8+1 and if there is a need they could be produced, but such small nuclear powerplants are extremely unlikely due to political/environmental concerns. So this is not technical limited, but otherwise so no idea when and if such will happen.

Solar Power Array: a 400 square feet array is a perfectly reasonable size for a off-grid array, and would be maybe 8kw nominal today and might weight 1500-3000 lb with the stands. So a 500lb kit could easily be not too far future so call it early 8+1 but edging towards middle TL 8+1.

Solar Paint: this is more likely late TL 8+1 or later as it requires some fundamental technology developments.

[RyanW]

Originally Posted by Fred Brackin

Probably not ever. The drag associated with LTAs makes them always slower at point A to B travel.

Airships are one of those solutions in desperate search of a problem. Most of the proposed uses essentially pitch them as a high-endurance alternative to helicopters.

But there's an airship boom every few years that promises amazing new designs that never leave the concept art stage.

[weby]

Originally Posted by Fred Brackin

Probably not ever. The drag associated with LTAs makes them always slower at point A to B travel.

the only real advantage is that they can remain airborne with low energy costs while at low speed. So far drones are filling this niche without noticeable trouble. Maybe, just maybe at some far future date there could be extremely large airships built for pleasure cruises. Purely recreational use is difficult to predict.

You might see some benefit from the noise reduction for thing inside cities or such as even with their higher drag you do not need enough air move to make them airborne like you need with airplanes/helicopters. So a slow speed transport airship would be much quieter than a drone or helicopter.

But given that it would be a niche product and the problems with helium supply in future it is not a likely solution.

Thus I wrote " Likely not in TL 8+1 at least." meaning not very likely, but if they come, it will be after some more changes in the way things go and that is hard to predict..

[Fred Brackin]

[QUOTE=weby;2457173So a slow speed transport airship would be much quieter than a drone or helicopter.

[/QUOTE]

Now you just need people who want a slow speed transport for going between urban points A to b.

Actually this is where one of airship's other big problems comes in. They aren't very good at precise maneuvering even in low winds. Skyscrapers seem to promote higher and gustier winds and LTAs don't like wind.

These are some of the reasons I brought up the luxury cruises. Voyages to nowhere in lighter-than-air comfort.

[the-red-scare]

Originally Posted by weby

Next power:

Power cells: As described: will require much development in super capacitors or similar. In early TL 8+1 at least we will most likely see Secondary Batteries as the primary energy storage method. Late TL 8+1, who knows what we will have by then.

Full-blown GURPS power cells were the first thing I put in late TL9.

[Astromancer]

Robotics are coming along but AI is not doing as well. I could see something that, while not really being AI, could preform some of the functions of an AI (for a given value of performance and function) as early TL9. Late TL9 I can see a better simulation.

I think we'd need a better understanding of what we mean when we say words like "intelligence" and "consciousness" before we could create an AI. We're mainly at the "I know it when I see it stage."

A technology in the pipeline now is the application of facial recognition software in agriculture. I know that sounds weird. The idea is to come up with a system were robots give every plant in the field individual attention. Water, fertilizer, pesticides, and all other attention would only be given as the individual plant needed it. The savings in water and agricultural chemicals would be enormous. Crop yields would dramatically increase, while stresses on the environment would radically decrease.

As I said, this is in the prototype and testing phase.

[weby]

Next computers just for the "oh my, where do I start" factor..

First complexity: it is clearly marked as being *10 more programs each CPX, so only a 100 times faster computers from TL 8 computers. The complexity progression in HT:E&E is much more realistic, according to it we are already at mature TL 9 computers. Basically so that we are a culture that is advanced in computers. The progression has slowed a bit in compute power/$ but snows no signs of stopping. So early TL 8+1 would have gurps TL 9 amd 9 1/2 computers coming to Gurps TL 10 at middle TL 8+1 and TL 11-12 towards end of TL 8+1

Computer options: Most TL 9 ones are pretty realistic, but:
-fast and genius should likely have notes on higher power consumption
-Quantum computer progress seems very slow. So a general purpose quantum computer will likely be late TL 8+1 or later or never..

Interfaces:

Voice control: According to UT the computer needs to have AI for us to use voice to interact with it. But given how well the prototype voice control tech we have works at late TL 8, I do not see that as requirement.

Datapad: touch screen interfaces replaced these already late TL 8. Also a "datachip drive" is far from given..

Head-Up Display: Given the amount of money put into the development or AR and VR and how some high end cars already have a projected HUD. I would place this at likely early TL 8+1 tech.

Sleeve Display: technically possible already today, but does not seem likely as something in use. More likely seems the trend of continuing to get better and better smart watches to fill that niche.

Workstation Terminal: This is already TL 8 tech. Likely will not have 3-d displays unless something radically changes as the 3-d tech does not seem to give any benefits at least in normal use.

Computerized Crew Station: This is already TL 8 tech.

Holographic Crew Station: I will discuss holographics in the comm/sensor part.

Software Cost: the cost of making same complexity software has dropped faster than a factor of 10/TL and there does not seem to be any reason to think it will radically slow down.

Artificial Intelligences

Dedicated AI: This is basically middle TL 8 tech.

Non-Volitional AI: This is basically late TL 8 tech.

Volitional AI: This one is hard to say when it will happen. Current trends put this at less than a decade away and raising at the exponential part of the s-curve, but we have had several earlier S-curves that have reached the plateau much short of a full GAI, Thus hard to say. It might be early TL 8-1, later or never.

Robots:

Drone: will continue to be used, but it really depends on the AI development. Once AI is sufficiently advanced, then these will likely go rapidly away.

Cyborgs: The types of fully functional parts we can make for humans will rapidly expand during TL 8+1.

Total Cyborgs: are not very likely due to societal reasons unless something radically changes.

Biomorphic lenses:
Sculpted Body/Mannequin/Semi-Sculpted Body : early TL 8+1. possible today but not in use.

Realistic Flesh: there is some research going into this but not much, so early TL8+1, but closer to middle TL 8+1 likely.