03-23-2011, 09:39 PM | #11 |
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Dobbstown Sane Asylum
|
Re: Chess Skill Levels
If you're using Regular Contests, then the only real question is about differences of skill. Because in GURPS, by the time you get to where the "masters" are playing (e.g., skill-20 vs. skill-16), you'll need to use the rules for adjusting Regular Contests to bring them back down to reasonable levels (in this example, skill-14 vs skill-10). So at high levels, everything will come down to "skill-X vs. skill-10, where X is 10+".
So just to do some quick, back-of-the-envelope math here, a Regular Contest will have one of three results for each roll: A wins (i.e., A succeeds and B fails), B wins (i.e., A fails and B succeeds), or the Contest continues. So all we really have to do is look at the probability of the first two cases and compare them. Now, the odds work out to be exactly what's shown on p. B171 -- that is, a difference of +1 means that the better player wins 62.5% of the time, +2 means 74.1%, and so on. If you want proof, read the following paragraph. If not, skip it. :) As explained in paragraph 1, above, it's fairly safe to assume that B will always be 10 (0.50). So the odds of A winning on a given roll are (A * 0.5), while the odds of B winning are ((1-A) * 0.5). Once you know both odds, you sum them to determine the total range of useful possibilities. So (A*0.5) + ((1-A)*0.5) = 0.5*(A + (1-A)) = 0.5*1 = 0.5. This means that the actual odds of A winning, expressed in a way that avoids the chance of infinite ties in the Contest, are (A * 0.5)/0.5, or A. And the odds of B winning are ((1-A) * 0.5)/0.5, or (1-A). So for the purpose of a Regular Contest, a match between two people with a +2 difference in skill levels makes it 0.741 likely that the better player will succeed. So it sounds to me like every +1 skill is +100 difference in ELO or FIDE or what have you, judging by what I've read here in this thread. (I don't really speak chess rankings, and I tend to avoid playing with people who do -- no offense intended to anyone! Just some people take certain boardgames way too seriously.)
__________________
Reverend Pee Kitty of the Order Malkavian-Dobbsian (Twitter) (LJ) MyGURPS: My house rules and GURPS resources.
#SJGamesLive: I answered questions about GURPS After the End and more! {Watch Video} - {Read Transcript} |
03-23-2011, 09:46 PM | #12 |
Join Date: Jul 2006
|
Re: Chess Skill Levels
Okay. Assuming you normalize so that the weaker player has a skill of 10, then a skill of 12 wins about 74% of regular contests.
Code:
Elo Skill 800 6 1000 8 1200 10 1400 12 1600 14 1800 16 2000 18 2200 20 2400 22 2600 24 2800 26 3000 28 |
03-23-2011, 10:12 PM | #13 | |
Join Date: Aug 2004
|
Re: Chess Skill Levels
Quote:
|
|
03-23-2011, 10:16 PM | #14 | |
Never Been Pretty
Join Date: Jan 2005
|
Re: Chess Skill Levels
Quote:
Though I enjoy playing chess, everything I know about the chess rating system I've read online in preparation for posts made in this thread, so none taken. |
|
03-23-2011, 10:24 PM | #15 | |
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Chagrin Falls
|
Re: Chess Skill Levels
Quote:
Anyway, OT, I'd be more concerned with the contest results than the ratings numbers. Those are just flavor. If you are going to peg rating ranges to skill levels though you may want to make sure they are continuous but not overlapping.
__________________
Benundefined Life has a funny way of making sure you decide to leave the party just a few minutes too late to avoid trouble. |
|
03-23-2011, 10:32 PM | #16 | |
Never Been Pretty
Join Date: Jan 2005
|
Re: Chess Skill Levels
Quote:
|
|
03-23-2011, 10:32 PM | #17 | |
Join Date: Jan 2010
|
Re: Chess Skill Levels
Quote:
http://forums.sjgames.com/showpost.p...9&postcount=20 |
|
03-23-2011, 10:49 PM | #18 | |
Never Been Pretty
Join Date: Jan 2005
|
Re: Chess Skill Levels
Quote:
Setting 2800-2899 as skill 24, for Kasparov, 21 would be 2500 for GM. And using some simplifications, we have: 19: FIDE 2300 17: FIDE 2100 15: FIDE 1900 14: FIDE 1775 13: FIDE 1650 11: FIDE 1450 9: FIDE 1250 7: FIDE 1050 5: FIDE 800 But setting all living grandmasters, over a thousand of them, as Top Master Alive, seems too much to me. |
|
03-23-2011, 10:52 PM | #19 |
Join Date: Jul 2006
|
Re: Chess Skill Levels
Except that in Magnus's case it is most likely true, he seems an otherwise unremarkable 18 year old, and he has spent his entire life studying chess.
|
03-23-2011, 11:00 PM | #20 |
Never Been Pretty
Join Date: Jan 2005
|
Re: Chess Skill Levels
Setting SL 6 as FIDE 800 gives GM skill 22+, and Kasparov a skill of 26. Which is too high.
6: FIDE 800 8: FIDE 1000 10: FIDE 1200 12: FIDE 1400 13: FIDE 1500 15: FIDE 1750 17: FIDE 1950 19: FIDE 2150 21: FIDE 2350 23: FIDE 2550 25: FIDE 2750 26: FIDE 2850 |
Tags |
chess |
Thread Tools | |
Display Modes | |
|
|