Question about the maths behind attack roll and defense rolls

DukeofDellot · 04-13-2010, 08:02 PM

When I first saw this, I thought of how a duel between two highly skilled individuals might last much longer than that between two poorly skilled individuals... in fact I believe I made a hit chance chart... I may still have it. In the long run, it didn't matter... deceptive attacks and feints put that twelve minute's effort down the tube... but I believe it's called... um... er... bagu...

Multipicitive Percentages?

Take the chance you have to make your attack roll, and multiply it by the chance you have to make your active defense. If I had my books on me, I could put a page number on where you'd find the odds, it's at the begining of the "Skills" chapter in the Basic Set Characters.

Apparetly I still have the chart though... if both characters have a skill 15, no enhacements to parry, and the attack goes unmodified... you have a 50% chance to hit, but if both characters have equal skill and combat reflexes (granting a +1 to active defense rolls), you have roughly a one in three chance to hit an unmodified attack until you get into the 18+ skill range.

Eh... at least I kind of thought that was interesting.

Edit: Come to think of it, Deceptive attacks bring the 1/3 chance to hit on equal skills up and beyond the 18+ skill range, if that's all you're doing with your attack.

Landwalker · 04-13-2010, 08:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DukeofDellot

Take the chance you have to make your attack roll, and multiply it by the chance you have to make your active defense. If I had my books on me, I could put a page number on where you'd find the odds, it's at the begining of the "Skills" chapter in the Basic Set Characters.

Not quite: It would be the chance of a successful attack roll multiplied by the chance of a failed defense roll.

So assuming no other bonuses, no fancy maneuvers, and combatants with Skill 16 (Parry 11), each attack has a success rate of roughly 36.7875%.

If the attacker takes a -2/-1 Deceptive Attack (giving target rolls of 14 and 10), that improves to about 45.35%

A -4/-2 Deceptive Attack gives a slight additional improvement, to about 46.3%.

Edit: Incidentally, if you decrease each character's base skill by 1 (to 15 each), the odds of that unmodified attack hitting jump up to 47.7%, and a -2/-1 Deceptive Attack gives you 52.4%.

04-13-2010, 08:02 PM	#1
DukeofDellot Join Date: Jan 2008	Re: Question about the maths behind attack roll and defense rolls When I first saw this, I thought of how a duel between two highly skilled individuals might last much longer than that between two poorly skilled individuals... in fact I believe I made a hit chance chart... I may still have it. In the long run, it didn't matter... deceptive attacks and feints put that twelve minute's effort down the tube... but I believe it's called... um... er... bagu... Multipicitive Percentages? Take the chance you have to make your attack roll, and multiply it by the chance you have to make your active defense. If I had my books on me, I could put a page number on where you'd find the odds, it's at the begining of the "Skills" chapter in the Basic Set Characters. Apparetly I still have the chart though... if both characters have a skill 15, no enhacements to parry, and the attack goes unmodified... you have a 50% chance to hit, but if both characters have equal skill and combat reflexes (granting a +1 to active defense rolls), you have roughly a one in three chance to hit an unmodified attack until you get into the 18+ skill range. Eh... at least I kind of thought that was interesting. Edit: Come to think of it, Deceptive attacks bring the 1/3 chance to hit on equal skills up and beyond the 18+ skill range, if that's all you're doing with your attack. __________________ If I say something, don't take it seriously... I really don't know what I'm talking about.