[DF] Suitable Dangerous Encounters

[Ulzgoroth]

Originally Posted by tjbuege

Wizard vs Guard (14:1d+2 vs 9:DR7)

1.9% + 88.9% * 62.5% = 57.4%

The wizard will penetrate the DR only 1 time out of 6, or 16.7% of the time. The average roll with 1d+2 is 5.5, which is under the DR of 7. This bit of information does nothing to help me figure out how to consider average damage dealt.

Well, this one is dead easy. The others are doable, but this one you can do in your head.

Expectation (or average) damage = chance to hit * (average over possible damage rolls of injury resulting)

In this case, the possible damage rolls give 5 0s and one 1 for injury, so expected damage is chance to hit * 1/6.