[DF] Suitable Dangerous Encounters

[tjbuege]

If you don't mind, let's see what I come up with for numbers with your examples:

Originally Posted by Nymdok

Guard in full Plate(DR7), With Spear(12:1d+2 Imp), Defense(BPD) = 0-9-9, HP:10.

Barbarian in Fur(DR1) with Bastard Sword(17:4d Cut), Defense(BPD)=0-12-9 (Includes ComRef), HP:22.

Cleric in Mail(DR 4:2) with Mace(14:2d+1 cr) and MedShield, Defense(BPD) = 12-12-10(Includes DB), HP:12.

Wizard in Robes (DR1) with Staff(14:1d+2), Defense(BPD)=0-12-9, HP:10.

Barbarian vs Guard (17:4d vs 9:DR7)

The Barbarian has 99.5% chance to hit, with 9.3% of that being critical hit. That means the Guard can defend against 90.3%. The Guard fails his defense 62.5% of the time. So, the Barbarian will land a blow, getting past the guard's defenses 65.7% of the time:

9.3% + 90.3% * 62.5% = 65.7%

Rolling 4d for damage, there are 1296 possible combinations of the dice with 1261 of them resulting in >7 total. So 97.3% of the time the Barbarian will do some damage. The average roll with 4d is 14, which would result in 7 damage. I'm not sure how to figure that into the average damage done.

Cleric vs Guard (14:2d+1 vs 9:DR7)

1.9% + 88.9% * 62.5% = 57.4%

The cleric will penetrate the DR 21 out of 36 times, or 58.3% of the time. Average roll with 2d+1 is 8, resulting in 1 damage.

Wizard vs Guard (14:1d+2 vs 9:DR7)

1.9% + 88.9% * 62.5% = 57.4%

The wizard will penetrate the DR only 1 time out of 6, or 16.7% of the time. The average roll with 1d+2 is 5.5, which is under the DR of 7. This bit of information does nothing to help me figure out how to consider average damage dealt.

But damage aside, I think my calculations for chances to land a blow are a bit different than yours. Is there something else I'm not considering?

Thanks,
Tim
Tim