[DF] Suitable Dangerous Encounters

[Nymdok]

Originally Posted by tjbuege

Ok, you lost me. Where are you coming up with these percentages and numbers?

Well, I made a spreadsheet its on my website here is the short answer.

The slightly longer answer is that for a hit to land and do damge:

Your Attack Must succeed.
The Defenders defense must fail.
The Attackers Damage Rolled Must exceed the DR.

So for an attack to succeed,

(Attacker gets a Crit)+(Attacker gets a hit thats NOT a crit)(Defender Fails His defense) = Chance youll land a blow.

So for a 15 skill versus a 12 active defese its...

(Odds od a crit: 5 or less= 4.62) + (Attack Succeeds But is NOT a crit : 5<AttackRoll<=15 or [<=15] - [<=5] = )(Defense Fails - Not >=12 = 13 + : 25.93)
Odds of a Landed Blow = (4.62%)+(90.75%)(25.93%) = 28.15 or 28.2

Damage Greater than DR is the expectation value of each damge summed.

So for 1d versus DR4, only rolls of 5 or 6 will get by DR, each with 1/6 of a chance to show up.

5 - 4 = 1 * .166667 = .16667
6 - 4 = 2 * .166667 = .33333

Damage Expectation = .48

(The Damage Expectation)*(Odds of a Landed Blow) = The Average Damage we expect per turn.

Its a poor metric, but one of the few that we have :)

Nymdok