[Spaceships] A reevaluation of missiles and point defense

joelbf · 02-28-2009, 06:04 AM

I've redone my calculations from my first post, but with spread-fire penalties for the pd-gunners.

Worst case (for point defence) is 10-minute scale. Assuming skill 12 (and noting that higher skill gives an edge to point defence):

Effective skill for missiles is 32, which gives on average 22,21 hits with a stdev of 4,15.

Effective skill for pd is 18, this means that spreading fire over 3 targets gives the best total result: 25,4 hits with a standard deviation of 5,26.

This means that on average -3,19 missiles will hit with a stdev of 6,7; the probability of less than one hit is 73%.

If you use 2 pd-turrets per missile launcher the distribution drops to -28,6 hits on average with a standard deviation of 8,52. The probability of less than one hit is 99,97%.

02-28-2009, 06:04 AM	#40
joelbf Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: Stockholm, Sweden	Re: [Spaceships] A reevaluation of missiles and point defense I've redone my calculations from my first post, but with spread-fire penalties for the pd-gunners. Worst case (for point defence) is 10-minute scale. Assuming skill 12 (and noting that higher skill gives an edge to point defence): Effective skill for missiles is 32, which gives on average 22,21 hits with a stdev of 4,15. Effective skill for pd is 18, this means that spreading fire over 3 targets gives the best total result: 25,4 hits with a standard deviation of 5,26. This means that on average -3,19 missiles will hit with a stdev of 6,7; the probability of less than one hit is 73%. If you use 2 pd-turrets per missile launcher the distribution drops to -28,6 hits on average with a standard deviation of 8,52. The probability of less than one hit is 99,97%.