Low Tech cannons mortars and shells

Anthony · 09-08-2023, 06:03 PM

Realistically, the odds of a projectile hitting a target in an area is (target size) / (size of area), and human cross-section probably averages around 5 square feet if standing. If the height of the pattern is less than 6', you should probably treat it as 6'.

For any large number of projectiles, the expected number of hits is (target size) * (number of projectiles) / (size of area), and the odds of at least one hit can be approximated as 1-e^(-expected hits) (which, for small expected hits, will be pretty much the same as expected hits)

For a pattern 30 yards (90') across, total area of the pattern is around 6400 square feet if the pattern is circular, and expected hits is ~0.07, with about the same hit chance. You can increase the number of expected hits by producing a flat spread, but I very much doubt that dumb projectiles are able to do that.

Note that a 7% hit probability, while not much on an individual, is plenty to be disruptive on a unit of troops, and than 30 yard pattern is noted as outer limits of effective.

09-08-2023, 06:03 PM	#27
Anthony Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: Berkeley, CA	Re: Low Tech cannons mortars and shells Realistically, the odds of a projectile hitting a target in an area is (target size) / (size of area), and human cross-section probably averages around 5 square feet if standing. If the height of the pattern is less than 6', you should probably treat it as 6'. For any large number of projectiles, the expected number of hits is (target size) * (number of projectiles) / (size of area), and the odds of at least one hit can be approximated as 1-e^(-expected hits) (which, for small expected hits, will be pretty much the same as expected hits) For a pattern 30 yards (90') across, total area of the pattern is around 6400 square feet if the pattern is circular, and expected hits is ~0.07, with about the same hit chance. You can increase the number of expected hits by producing a flat spread, but I very much doubt that dumb projectiles are able to do that. Note that a 7% hit probability, while not much on an individual, is plenty to be disruptive on a unit of troops, and than 30 yard pattern is noted as outer limits of effective. __________________ My GURPS site and Blog.