[World Building] A Future History of Space Force

[Fred Brackin]

Originally Posted by David Johnston2

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So the first question is, what year is it when the first manned warships start to arrive in the asteroid belt?

I know of no way to make a useful prediction on a "positive" basis. that is I don't think you can say "x years would be enough to develop a useful long range space drive probably operating on principles of which we have only the barest knowledge"..

So perhaps a "negative" prediction? That would be an attempt to say "Not before date X". So we look for an analogy in a historical technology. Let's try jet aircraft. that was a very fast-developing example and might set a minimum time required.

Do we start our clock right now? I don't think so. At least not unless you're going to assume a case of "Emergent Superscience". Spacex might (just "might") be on the verge of reaching a mature short range space tech. but no one is going to commit the sort of resources required for long range space travel until after short range fully matures.

We're looking for an analogy to the German and British military experimentation with jet engines in the late 30s. Fully developed commercial jet aircraft (probably the 747) come about 30 years after that and that was indeed very fast.

I'd put our beginning date for serious long range space propulsion research to not before 2050 and this very fast track for a fully developed commercial long range space vehicle to not before 2080.

Even after that you need for a significant economy based on along range space travel to develop to inspire force projection into deep space.

So maybe 2100 is the earliest reasonable date? Shave a few years off that number if you're really optimistic but without that Emergent Superscience it's just going to take time.