[World Building] A Future History of Space Force

[Fred Brackin]

Originally Posted by David Johnston2

S
So the first question is, what year is it when the first manned warships start to arrive in the asteroid belt?

I know of no way to make a useful prediction on a "positive" basis. that is I don't think you can say "x years would be enough to develop a useful long range space drive probably operating on principles of which we have only the barest knowledge"..

So perhaps a "negative" prediction? That would be an attempt to say "Not before date X". So we look for an analogy in a historical technology. Let's try jet aircraft. that was a very fast-developing example and might set a minimum time required.

Do we start our clock right now? I don't think so. At least not unless you're going to assume a case of "Emergent Superscience". Spacex might (just "might") be on the verge of reaching a mature short range space tech. but no one is going to commit the sort of resources required for long range space travel until after short range fully matures.

We're looking for an analogy to the German and British military experimentation with jet engines in the late 30s. Fully developed commercial jet aircraft (probably the 747) come about 30 years after that and that was indeed very fast.

I'd put our beginning date for serious long range space propulsion research to not before 2050 and this very fast track for a fully developed commercial long range space vehicle to not before 2080.

Even after that you need for a significant economy based on along range space travel to develop to inspire force projection into deep space.

So maybe 2100 is the earliest reasonable date? Shave a few years off that number if you're really optimistic but without that Emergent Superscience it's just going to take time.

[David Johnston2]

Originally Posted by Fred Brackin

I know of no way to make a useful prediction on a "positive" basis. that is I don't think you can say "x years would be enough to develop a useful long range space drive probably operating on principles of which we have only the barest knowledge"..

So perhaps a "negative" prediction? That would be an attempt to say "Not before date X". So we look for an analogy in a historical technology. Let's try jet aircraft. that was a very fast-developing example and might set a minimum time required.

Do we start our clock right now? I don't think so. At least not unless you're going to assume a case of "Emergent Superscience". Spacex might (just "might") be on the verge of reaching a mature short range space tech. but no one is going to commit the sort of resources required for long range space travel until after short range fully matures.

We're looking for an analogy to the German and British military experimentation with jet engines in the late 30s. Fully developed commercial jet aircraft (probably the 747) come about 30 years after that and that was indeed very fast.

I'd put our beginning date for serious long range space propulsion research to not before 2050 and this very fast track for a fully developed commercial long range space vehicle to not before 2080.

Even after that you need for a significant economy based on along range space travel to develop to inspire force projection into deep space.

So maybe 2100 is the earliest reasonable date? Shave a few years off that number if you're really optimistic but without that Emergent Superscience it's just going to take time.

Turning to Ultra-Tech, I'd say it's a choice between Medium and Slow progression. Fast and Accelerated have already been ruled out by time's crushing march. Retarded would probably require global catastrophe that isn't in the schedule for this campaign which assumes that the United States will remain intact in some form for at least a few more centuries. Medium gives a TL 9 between 2030 and 2120. Slow gives us 2040 to 2200.

Let's go with Slow. We certainly aren't on the verge of an asteroid mining boom as of this writing. So, maybe 2120 for the first warships to hit the belt. Of course that requires more than one player. So who are the United States's rivals out there?

I think we should be generous. The more sides, the more gameplay potential. So, maybe China, the European Union, a somehow revitalized Russia, and some kind of loose space coalition of Japan, South Korea, the Republic of China, Australia and New Zealand?

[ehrbar]

Originally Posted by David Johnston2

So, maybe China, the European Union, a somehow revitalized Russia, and some kind of loose space coalition of Japan, South Korea, the Republic of China, Australia and New Zealand?

That's pretty close to the Transhuman Space lineup. (THS's Russia isn't particularly revitalized, and its Pacific Rim Alliance is broader but doesn't include a reintegrated-into-China Taiwan.)

[tshiggins]

Originally Posted by David Johnston2

(SNIP)

I think we should be generous. The more sides, the more gameplay potential. So, maybe China, the European Union, a somehow revitalized Russia, and some kind of loose space coalition of Japan, South Korea, the Republic of China, Australia and New Zealand?

An increasingly-intense rivalry with the People's Republic of China drives India's space program (ISRO), now, and it's moving along nicely. I don't think that would change much, at this point, even if (when...) China's economy collapses by the middle of this century -- especially since U.S. foreign policy-makers are working really hard to woo India away from Russia.

(Not that Russia is making that particularly difficult, at the current juncture....)

Moreover, the best and brightest have been draining out of Russia for years, due to the near-collapse of that country's higher education system. If Russia just replaces the current despot with a similar one in the next five years or so, a whole bunch of Russian rocket scientists will need to find work -- and I'd bet a fair number wind up in India.

So, to leave India out of this list is a pretty severe oversight, I'd think.

So, given the length of the timeline, maybe a unified post-Communist China; an Asian Tiger coalition that included a unified Korea (North Korea doesn't survive the fall of the PRC) and New Zealand, led by a sometimes-quarrelsome triumvirate of India, Japan and Australia; a Russia-led coalition that includes a fair bit of Persian Gulf funding (declining dependence on fossil fuels means Western powers more willingly pressure Muslim nations on human rights concerns, which drives them away); the ESA; and the United States.

I'd say the odd-man-out in that setting would be the Russian coalition; with unified China stubbornly independent and contrarian; and the Asian Tiger alliance capable of some great innovations when it's not a hot mess.

The U.S. leads the way in space exploration/exploitation with its close partner the ESA, members of which find the Americans' strong support for semi-autonomous private, for-profit, development of space infrastructure somewhat distressing.

[Rupert]

Originally Posted by tshiggins

An increasingly-intense rivalry with the People's Republic of China drives India's space program (ISRO), now, and it's moving along nicely. I don't think that would change much, at this point, even if (when...) China's economy collapses by the middle of this century -- especially since U.S. foreign policy-makers are working really hard to woo India away from Russia.

(Not that Russia is making that particularly difficult, at the current juncture....)

Moreover, the best and brightest have been draining out of Russia for years, due to the near-collapse of that country's higher education system. If Russia just replaces the current despot with a similar one in the next five years or so, a whole bunch of Russian rocket scientists will need to find work -- and I'd bet a fair number wind up in India.

Or in China, which is doing a roaring trade with Russia right now, selling Russia stuff that nobody else will. As China has the money and labour, and Russia increasingly has nothing but natural resources, there's a decent chance (in my estimation) that the future will see Russia existing primarily as a Chinese client state, providing China with raw materials in exchange for high-tech products and security.

China gets the cheap resources it needs, and no longer has to worry about the decline of its relationship with countries like Australia (which is where China's been getting a vast amount of its iron ore, etc. from).

I'd say the odd-man-out in that setting would be the Russian coalition

I'd make it part of the Chinese sphere - see above.