Close Combat Stress Test

[Kromm]

Originally Posted by evileeyore

2d Toxic (1d with a HT check) ain't nothing to go around ignorin. Argua took 11 toxic damage in my fight, 3 more points (a singular bite) would have dropped her, which is the main reason I went for the pin.

I am surprised, to be honest.

Odds of a spider successfully attacking: Skill 16, -4 for being grappled = 12, which gives 74.1%.

Odds of Argua successfully defending: Dodge 9 gives 37.5%. (Perfectly acceptable, as grappling gives the grappler no defense penalties.)

Odds of a meaningful hit: The spiders are rolling 1d-1 imp: {1, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5}. None of those rolls can pierce Argua's DR 5, so all we care about are results greater than her DR 1 armor, which land on Tough Skin and inject venom. That's a 2 in 3 chance.

Odds of making the HT roll: It's a straight HT roll to resist the venom, and she has HT 14, so it's a 90.7% chance of 1d (average 3.5 injury), 9.3% chance of 2d (average 7 injury).

So average injury per attack is 0.741 × (1 - 0.375) × 2/3 × (0.907*3.5 + 0.093*7) = 1.18 HP.

To reach the 14 HP total ("more than HP/2," and she has 26 HP) would take on average 11.8 attacks. This is what I meant about being like a 1-HP nuisance to a normal person.

Obviously, there's some swinginess! She could take 12 HP on the first bite . . . or go for several attacks without even being touched. Still, I'm surprised.

If there's a moral to this story, it would be "Get Luck, so one bad roll at the start of the battle won't be a fight-ender."

[evileeyore]

Originally Posted by Kromm

I am surprised, to be honest.

Why? Two attacks in the 1st round of combat from ungrappled spiders*, a third in the 2nd round from a still ungrappled spider† and a fourth in the 3rd round from a now grappled spider. Seems very straight forward to me...


* One of which was Dodged, yes be amazed Argua made many actual Dodges in this fight (just over half).

† Which was Parried (we didn't realize we were in CC at this point, that came in a moment when me and Dragondog both checked the Close Combat rules as he was coming to understand these spiders were CC only monsters). Heavy biases from previous GURPS games still at play this point... and as we opted to add House Rules (Long Weapons in CC), I think that's the only reason we made it out with zero deaths and only one 'casualty'.


Over all Argua got bitten twice, for 5 and 6 points of toxic damage (I suspect she failed the second HT save, but I'm not sure as the GM (Dragondog) was making those to maintain suspense). Of the three PCs that got bitten, only one dropped (Happy Badapple, but really does this surprise anyone?).


I maintain that this fight is just deadly for anyone that isn't fluent in DFRPG or vanila DF (IE anyone with biases from GURPS Martial Arts or is a GURPS newb and has a DFRPG newb GM - Dragondog was learning DFRPG's nuances at the same time we Players were). If we'd hadn't opted to House Rule in Long Weapons in CC this fight would have gone deadly (but then we had 7 characters, so yeah, a restricted space CC fight? Just a bad place for that many PCs).

If there's a moral to this story, it would be "Get Luck, so one bad roll at the start of the battle won't be a fight-ender."

Luck might have helped... if I could make the first spider who dodged my attack not succeed it's Dodge. Otherwise, not really. No roll was really bad on my part* (the Holy Warrior critically fumbling his attack roll and dropping his sword as the spiders rolled in was a real "use Luck here" case though).

I think the moral of this particular story is "Get a good CC option weapon and get your skill to at least 14".
*Until backing off and trying to kill the spider with axe swings and pushes and just suddenly failing every roll that wasn't a Dodge.

[tbone]

Originally Posted by evileeyore

I have trouble losing that bias when dealing with things I understand from reality that isn't explicitly overruled by the fiction (IE spiders having necks).

Then again, if it's a fantasy giant spider, who knows? Big crawlies in movies sometimes seem to pick up odd vertebrate-like jaws, or breath-like hissing (even speech). And zoologists will attest that huge bugs would almost certainly need lungs to exist...

Or maybe not, in fantasy.

"I'll wrap my hands around the giant spider's neck and... er, wait, can I strangle a spider?"

I can see a GM responding with any of the below:

• Well, I don't see "No Neck" in the writeup... so, yep, you can strangle it!
• I don't see "No Neck" in the writeup... but it's a spider, so the head is little more than an ugly face on the torso. Sorry; no neck, no strangling.
• Hmm... I'd say no, because spiders don't have necks... but let's say that whatever it is you're crushing there, it hurts just like strangling. Choke away!

Me, as GM, I'd quietly pick one of the above, and respond like this:

"I don't know; can you strangle a spider? Try it and see." : )

[martinl]

Originally Posted by tbone

"I don't know; can you strangle a spider? Try it and see." : )

Unless you're a druid of one of those elves, in which case you have a cute spider strangling story to share.

[Colarmel]

Originally Posted by Anthony

I define it as monsters with the ability to keep you in close combat. If it doesn't grapple you, your ability to attack in close combat is sorta irrelevant.

Nah, there are lots of ways parties arrange themselves that CC messes with. If the knight is holding a doorway and a monster runs up into cc and punches him in the shin, he'd better have a knife, because retreat opens the door to all the squishy party members behind him. Even if a monster can't hold you in cc, they can break your tactics by going to cc.

[sjmdw45]

Originally Posted by martinl

Francesco - He can use untrained unarmed combat (ST and DX 12), or use contingency casting for a single combat spell...

Aelin - This seems like a good time for Frostbite. DB1 shield will get in the way...

Seamus and Zippy the Firewitch - Use spells.

In some close combats that will work, but it's worth remembering that being grappled, even by a SM -1 big spider, prevents concentration and therefore most spellcasting, even at skill 20+. Better hope somebody on the team knows Blink Other...

Originally Posted by Kromm

Anyway, I don't see Argua in particular actually caring about huge spiders. They bite for 1d-1 impaling and she has DR 5, so the bite won't inflict injury. Most bites will land on Tough Skin, which doesn't protect against venom, but she'll make just about all the HT rolls (HT 14) and she has 26 HP, so I think the spider is essentially a minor pest, roughly equivalent to something that does 1 HP per turn to a normal person.

The spider's best attack might be an All-Out (Determined) bite to Argua's eye, at 11 or better (roughly 62%): a potential knockout blow.

An All-Out (Strong) bite to the face isn't as good but can still inflict injury: 1d+1 vs. DR 4 has a 50% chance of inflicting injury (plus more poison damage).

Even the regular Big Spiders are scary in close combat if they just go for the eyes. (Fringe benefit of going for the eyes: if you miss, the target can't parry your bite or retreat out of close combat. Win/win!)

The closer I look at monster tactics and options, the deadlier I Smell A Rat becomes.

Originally Posted by Kromm

Huh, and at ST 23 vs. ST 12, Argua is more than twice as strong and can actually just walk off dragging the spider as encumbrance while she does this. "Hey, cleric need help? Argua comin' over! Bringin' spider, but don' worry – this one almost done!"

Nitpick: 23 is not more than twice 12, and Argua only has ST 21 anyway (+1 Lifting ST).

[johndallman]

Originally Posted by Colarmel

Nah, there are lots of ways parties arrange themselves that CC messes with. If the knight is holding a doorway and a monster runs up into cc and punches him in the shin, he'd better have a knife, because retreat opens the door to all the squishy party members behind him. Even if a monster can't hold you in cc, they can break your tactics by going to cc.

Yup, the secondary weapon for CC is important. The most dangerous fight our tiny party has been in started with some weirdo Pathfinder elven vampire seductress type mind-controlling our knight. She'd drained him down to half move and dodge by the time he snapped out of it. Fast-draw knife, stab to the vitals. Oh, she was cross!

[sjmdw45]

Originally Posted by johndallman

Yup, the secondary weapon for CC is important. The most dangerous fight our tiny party has been in started with some weirdo Pathfinder elven vampire seductress type mind-controlling our knight. She'd drained him down to half move and dodge by the time he snapped out of it. Fast-draw knife, stab to the vitals. Oh, she was cross!

Huh. I'm surprised the story didn't end with "and then he killed everyone else in the party."

[martinl]

Originally Posted by sjmdw45

The spider's best attack might be an All-Out (Determined) bite to Argua's eye, at 11 or better (roughly 62%): a potential knockout blow.

Yeah but mammal eyes are sooooo gross.

[mburr0003]

Originally Posted by sjmdw45

The spider's best attack might be an All-Out (Determined) bite to Argua's eye, at 11 or better (roughly 62%): a potential knockout blow.

An All-Out (Strong) bite to the face isn't as good but can still inflict injury: 1d+1 vs. DR 4 has a 50% chance of inflicting injury (plus more poison damage).

I wouldn't have animal monsters go for the eyes or face, unless it was either their shtick, or they were trained.

Great Cats going for the neck? Yes. Giant Spider biting at your eyes? No.

Especially not in a fight where it looks like Close Combat is a terrible factor and with PCs not designed to be able to handle it decisively.

(Fringe benefit of going for the eyes: if you miss, the target can't parry your bite or retreat out of close combat. Win/win!)

How is this a Win/Win? The foe can simply Step back out of Close Combat on their turn.

Sure, because a miss doesn't prompt a "free" Step from a Retreat, it's better to miss in CC than to "hit" and be successfully defended against, but it's a far cry from "win/win".

The closer I look at monster tactics and options, the deadlier I Smell A Rat becomes.

Form my understanding (having read a fair few blog reports and PbP games of I Smell A Rat), it's mostly that first battle catching parties flatfooted, and a few "special trick" monsters later that make the adventure particularly deadly for new Players. If a group is an old hand to GURPS (or just used to "puzzle-solving" for monsters and understand Close Combat rules) or has a GM who isn't being a "rat bastard", then it seems pretty straight forward.

Nitpick: 23 is not more than twice 12, and Argua only has ST 21 anyway (+1 Lifting ST).

The "ST 23" comes from the +1 from Wrestling (so she has an effective ST 23 for most Wrestling purposes)... which I've never added to ST for purposes of "doubling the ST of the foe to treat them like Encumbrance"... but otherwise you are correct, 23 isn't "twice 13".